I don't expect to remain alive for much more of game, and a lot of the other people who were helping post my thoughts for me to alleviate my tendonitis strain are dead, so here is my writeup of thoughts so far:
Possible dead mafia:
Dgrazian
Meghal
Sammy (python had Karen douse him night 2, and Karen ignited last night)
I think probably ~1 of them was actually mafia. GMs did not say how many mafia there were at the start of the game, but I think 3 mafia would have been the balanced number, so
my best estimate for the number of mafia alive right now is 2. Dgrazian - Surprisingly inactive for an experienced player, claimed to not have put aok in any of the 6 slots on his priest list despite aok being the most obvious person to put there. Dgrazian misplaying has been historically pretty correlated with him being mafia. I do think that GMs would have wanted to put at least one of every role in the game, so if not_coal is a vigilante rather than a priest, I think Dgrazian's chances of having been town are higher.
Meghal - mhguo stalked Meghal as having targeted python last night 2 when she claimed to have targeted Yannick (Yannick did not receive a visit). In order for all 3 people involved to be telling the truth, it would require 1 mafia taxi driver targeting Meghal and either a mafia roleblocker targeting Meghal or a mafia taxi driver targeting Yannick (though Meghal told no one else ahead of time that she was targeting Yannick). However, there were 2-3 other unexplained roleblockings that also happened: I stalked lyuyuan and got no result, lyuyuan stalked python and got no result, and Sammy claims to have taxi driven with lyuyuan, who was visited by beanboy and successfully received that visit. So, Sammy effectively claimed to have been roleblocked, while either python and I were roleblocked or lyuyuan was roleblocked. Note that if Meghal was mafia, she was a mafia roleblocker; a mafia taxi driver would not have led mhguo to get those stalking results.
Sammy - I'm not really sure what python's reasoning was for wanting Sammy doused, but python was killed by mafia, so I suppose it's approximately like a random lynch. I'd video called with Sammy a lot during the game and didn't have a particularly strong read either way, but I think sometimes when Sammy is mafia he seems really obviously sketchy, so maybe that's a Bayesian update against?
Sammy and Meghal were the people who knew about my arsonist faking plan earlier (Sammy as of day 1, Meghal as of mid-day 2). I expect mafia would suspect me of pulling some plot like this with reasonable probability anyway such that they wouldn't contact me, but there would be 0 probability of mafia contacting me if either of them was mafia, so that's a Bayesian update for one of them having been bad.
ZoePasetsky - I think that if Meghal was bad, then Zoe is probably good, given how much Meghal was in favor of deflecting the lynch to her. However, I've got to admit that she does seem sketchy. I tried Facebook messaging her to get her to publicly claim her taxi drives, and she said "First night was a person not playing and second night was mhguo and last night was random as well as the first night I guess". :/ I then asked "Did the GMs message you who you randomly targeted those days?" and she didn't respond, despite me sending that message almost immediately afterwards. Compared with other roles, I think having a random taxi drive every day is particularly bad for town.
Lacking a better target today, I think I'd advocate lynching Zoe.lukesci and vluo - I think Luke has been dictator for long enough and he should not be dictating tonight or future nights. It's a bit suspicious mafia haven't tried to kill either of them yet, though I guess it doesn't actually look like Luke has dictated much. It seems like if mafia wanted to fake a role action after the fact, they totally could have, because a lot of people didn't tell him what they were doing beforehand or didn't say their results in a timely manner. Definitely they shouldn't be lynched unless something in particular makes them look bad, as lynching a gay knight is quite bad for town.
Semi-relatedly, Luke mentioned that I shouldn't publicly share my results yet, because another stalker stalked me and seemed unclear on what their results were?
Whichever of lyuyuan and mhguo this is: please share those results soon, so town knows whether or not I can confirm you as being a real stalker!Sir Nicoeus and Beanboy - Mafia have one visit per day, so ideally we could say that at most one of the set {brunnerj, Meghal, Sir Nicoeus, beanboy} is mafia... except that a bunch of our visits have gotten lost, and also people could lie about being visited. In particular, Meghal could in fact have been mafia with any other visitor, and Sir Nicoeus and Beanboy could still be mafia together with beanboy lying about having been visited by Nico yesterday. I don't know what happened to Beanboy's visit on Nico today (mafia taxi driver? Random Zoe taxi?) Anyway though, it would be like epsilon better for Sir Nico and Beanboy to visit other people, so we could discount a world where they are both mafia.
not_coal - At some point in the next day or so I think not_coal should say if they are a priest or a vigilante; specifically, it would be good to know their priest lists if they are a priest (to confirm whether we can get a Bayesian update from the lack of a trigger).
I don't think I have more specific comments about yyao1, lyuyuan, mhguo, or karengao (though people should remember that karengao is 3rd party and only town-aligned if she thinks it is in her best interest).
Going to update the spreadsheet now. People should remember to refer to it and keep it updated when I die:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0
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