Okay, guys. I have a plan to probably/maybe/possibly win. I'm going to describe the necessary series of actions below. ? indicates I don't know that it's a good idea, * indicates that I have not put this plan into action/do not know if it's feasible yet.
Before Monday:
Poison dmz and gxing before Monday (so they die beginning of the day Wednesday). I think these two are the best to poison because they are hardest to kill outside of this context.
? Daniel Grazian posts a response to gxing that says something like "I think your theory is probable and correct".
Monday:
? Daniel Grazian investigates AustinFathman for shikexue's murder and reports that Austin did not kill him. If this happens, it should happen early enough in the day that no one else investigates AustinFathman.
Sibyani kills somebody, ideally an active or someone with a Fake ID.
* Shortly after Sibyani kills somebody, I get an NP to invite kaufmand over to EC. A mafia kills him. We Frame whoever has the worst alibi at the time, ideally an active, ideally Alex. I email someone at EC that they should ask NP about the murder because I remember kaufmand saying he was going over to meet her. NP gives whatever description of a person I feed her and if presented a picture of our Framed innocent, identifies him as the killer.
The Framed innocent is lynched.
Tuesday:
Sibyani kills somebody, ideally an active or someone with a Fake ID.
We hire a good hitman to kill tjhance when he's alone in a way that, while not necessarily implicating somebody, at the very least does not implicate any of the mafia and is not clearly a hitman kill.
As the person with the next highest number of petition signatures, Andres because mayor.
I try to convince town to lynch mchang02 because "I know at least one backup" and it would be good to have more investigators. I don't expect this to work. I feel like it's probable that one of us, probably Daniel Grazian, maybe even me, will die on Tuesday.
Wednesday:
dmz and gxing die. 17 players are left. Worst case scenario where town has all the remaining fake IDs and one of us is lynched on Tuesday, we have 7 votes vs 12 votes.
Sibyani makes a kill.
Another one of us makes two kills (using Scheme).
We're at 7 votes vs 9 votes. Note that this is absolute worst scenario. Counting people who have been inactive, we can probably outvote town and win.
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