Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Voting strategy day 5
PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 3:21 pm 
Making new thread for this. People who have been paying more attention to game than me, how should we vote?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 4:49 pm 
Okay. Assuming lily is lynched tonight, then isaacg needs to be quick on the draw to get elected mayor. Then we have 1 kill left, and 6 people alive, unless shike is evicted. In which case we have 1 kill left, 5 people alive, and we win.

So i guess everyone should vote for jrowan, for instance? I've seen him mentioned.

So we have any major concerns at this point? I don't think me revealing sketchiness would help divide the vote at this point, seeing as drosophyllum is trying to get everyone to go after lily even though kemus is confirmed mafia.


Am I missing things? Just got out of rehearsal and read through everything.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:05 pm 
We have 2 kills tomorrow.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:07 pm 
I was counting the set-a-trap on drosophyllum--I meant one kill after that. Is that accurate?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:23 pm 
That is accurate. There is no way in hell I get elected mayor at this point, though. Jessk is the only one who might be.

This is what happens if everything goes to shit:
Current town vs. mafia:
8-4
Just after end of day:
7-3 or if shike is evicted, 6-3
Just before day end of day 6:
5-3 or if shike is evicted, 4-3.
After day end day 6:
5-2 or 4-2
Before end of day 7:
3-2 or 2-2
If 2-2, we win.
Just after end of day 7:
2-1
During day 7:
0-1
Note: this is dependent on us not killing lzahray, and letting her desperado counter run out. We can double up on this effect by poisoning someone. The point is, if we can successfully kill 2 players a day for the rest of game, we will win by the slimmest of margins, even being completely revealed, as long as we use deperado timers / poison correctly. Let's hope it doesn't come to this. We'll see how organized town actually gets.
I think me, lily and kemus should all vote to lynch shike if he starts playing, because shike has a tiebreak vote in his favor.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:31 pm 
On the other hand, if we can get kemus to be lynched over lilychen by all voting to lynch kemus, and shike gets evicted or doesn't vote on day 6, we win the game.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:33 pm 
Okay. What should I vote--lily? (If I am still trying to preserve my innocence.) Or do we still have hope on that front?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:34 pm 
Ah, voting kemus would be fun. Idk if that would work out though. What does that do to the tiebreak, though?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:37 pm 
Alright, I have a better plan. Given that 3 mafia are already revealed, revealing a 4th won't hurt much because they'll never get around to lynching you. What we should do is all vote to lynch a townie, namely shike. If we get shike lynched, which only takes 2 people not voting to lynch lilychen, town has 6 remaining members to our 4, and we just win easily. I think the probability of this outcome is high enough that we should take this play.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:41 pm 
One thing, though: if shike is not lynched, everyone knows who we are. That will making killing difficult.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:45 pm 
Yeah, but we force town to play almost perfectly in order to beat us. Also, it's not that hard to kill people if you're willing to do it publicly.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:46 pm 
3 of us are already revealed, and if you're off killing everyone sara, they'll figure you out pretty soon too. I think we want to maximize the chance of just winning tonight, because trying to win by killing every last townie will be extremely difficult to accomplish.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 5:51 pm 
Fair. I like. It's not as if everyone can hide for days.


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 6:07 pm 
Wait, shit, so should we vote shike or me?


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PostPosted: Sat Apr 19, 2014 6:09 pm 
We vote shike. If we vote you, we lose on tiebreaks the day after, lily gets lynched on day 6, and we're in trouble. Voting shike wins very easily if it is successful.


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