Live Action Mafia
http://mafia.mit.edu/

Running Commentary on Game
http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=91&t=2869		 Page 2 of 6
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
And I really like my flavortext too...

They shouldn't get lynched though, since they can both prove their innocence by dying. Lucy can make the argument that her count-the-mafia result is only good if she dies through desperation, unless town wants to use a shovel. Krue will be claiming to be Dgrazian's gay knight, and so town would be dumb to lynch her.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:58 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
clever of krue to be her own proxy :D
After this meeting things can go either way
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:01 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
What do you think Krue's plan is? I wonder if she has teamed up with Lucy, both knowing they'll die tonight. Its strange that Krue would suggest to lynch two dying players.
Author:  jessk [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:04 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Maybe she suspects Ellena and wants her to waste a lynch on them instead of lynching a more useful innocent?
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:06 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Yeah, she definitely wouldn't want a lynch used on herself if she is dying anyway. I've got to think this is some kind of ploy...

Lucy did pm me this:

im meeting with krue later today and was going to claim investigator and ask her to proxy for me.

and then she posts that she's already someone's proxy :/

also i dont know what to think about Sarah. She keeps doing/asking/saying some things that just set my sketch radar off.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
That makes sense. If they do team up, it would be better to get one of them lynched and the other to relay a dying message to town telling town what they know and who they lost. If krue gets lynche, lucy would leave a message saying krue was a gay knight, and vice versa
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
But that's not any better than them individually just posting to town what they are and what they know. Then everything they say is confirmed when they die.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Not really, they could be trying to get conscripted by Ellena. In which case telling town their roles could hurt their chances of being conscripted, which would have been a great move for town.
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:26 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Well, they could post to town shortly before day end on the day they die.

Also, it doesn't look like they are particularly suspicious of Ellena. Lucy thought that one of Dgrazian, Lily, Ellena, and Sam was mafia, since she thought mafia would want to run for mayor. However, she was most suspicious of Sam, since the other three have run for mayor before.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:28 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
So, DG is dead. Lucy is onto 2 of the 3 mafia. Thats not bad
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Well, Lucy thinks that 1 of the 3 is mafia. And she might be even less sure of this now since she thinks that the mafia were being noobish on day 1.

Also, I think this has to be the worst batch of alibis I've ever seen. No one was with another player, and while the work alibis are good, it's mostly mafia that have them. O.O
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Ellena wrote:
I'm fairly certain that Santi is an investigator, and Elaine is a superhero.


How the...? Ellena is AWESOME at getting people's roles. Either that or EC really hasn't learned its lesson from Kemus last spring...
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:39 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Santi and Elaine are done. Over. Town is losing important players. Speaking of which no back ups have claimed any roles... that could be bad
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:41 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
they really haven't.... to be fair Santi was the only one there that experienced that.
He wants to believe Ellena isn't mafia. That's his mistake though. As comforting as it is to have your friends be townies, blindly believing that doesn't change the fact that they could be mafia. I only hope he learn to not ignore the signs that Ellena is mafia
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:50 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Lilychen wrote:
This game seems very town-biased... If town just no-lynches every single day, we'd literally have to kill off 10 people at a rate of 1 per day... I don't see how there's any chance we can win this.


Definitely doesn't look like that now. EC has 3 people's roles, plus Charles, although Lily doesn't quite believe him (a bunch of people in ET jokingly claimed conspiracy theorist, so Charles doing it seriously is kind of ironic). Lucy and Krue will die on their own. Mafia is in a very good place right now.

Yeah, I guess Aradhana and Elaine didn't experience the spring 2 game. I know I definitely was too trusting until one of my friends turned out to be mafia. And poor Santiago... his best friends are always mafia when he plays.
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Have they seriously not learned over there :P

Also, I don't think Krue is doing anything that is likely to turn out well for the town. She pm'ed me (after I died) saying that she was going to try to bait the mafia into conscripting her, since she dies tomorrow anyway. Of course, under the circumstances, it's rather unlikely that they'll conscript her :P

What she should be trying to do is take full control of the town for the two days that she has.
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:52 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Have they seriously not learned over there :P

Also, I don't think Krue is doing anything that is likely to turn out well for the town. She pm'ed me (after I died) saying that she was going to try to bait the mafia into conscripting her, since she dies tomorrow anyway. Of course, under the circumstances, it's rather unlikely that they'll conscript her :P

What she should be trying to do is take full control of the town for the two days that she has.
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Agreed. Krue should declare herself dictator.

Also, with all this accurate role information mafia has, it would be pretty sad if they used their set a trap on the one inaccurate role (Sarah Pratt as investigator, when she is a superhero).
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 12:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
It's weird being god. I think I find myself rooting for the losing team... What about you?
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Yes, the mafia are looking to be in a very good situation right now, but I still think that the game was initially pro-town. The mafia are doing so well, because:

1. Town is being really derpy (so far.)
2. Mafia very much have their pants on.
3. Mafia have gotten some decent strokes of luck (not hitting desperado Lucy, hitting a gay knight pair comprised of two of the most experienced players.)

And it is definitely not too late for things to go badly for the mafia. Remember that without poison and fake-ids, the endgame is really difficult for the mafia (if the remaining townies are paying any attention, which of course is a big if.)

Also, can you post the roles of the players?

I'm still really irritated...looking forward to the next game :)
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:02 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Daniel, look at the GM Spread sheet.
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:03 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
I'm rooting for town more now that it looks like they're losing. If things look tied though, I find myself rooting for mafia. I think it's because we can see things through mafia's perspective, with mafia den and everything, whereas it's much less clear what individual townies are doing and thinking. So, it's easier to empathize with mafia overall.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:20 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
If marian switches to being a super hero then that gives a chance for a seer to catch both Ellena or Marian
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:31 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Lilychen wrote:
We should be careful not to give the impression that there are too many investigators. In a game this size, it would be weird to have more than 3 investigators...


Ellena wrote:
Ara already has counted 4 investigators....


Ironically, there is only one real investigator in game. However, there will be six people claiming investigator today:
Drosophyllum
Krue
Sarah Pratt
Lucy
Michikyo
Lilychen
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:51 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
svolz wrote:
I choose to backup Krue and Ellena.


*facepalm*

Backing up a gay knight and a mafia... It's a good choice from her perspective, since Krue and Ellena are experienced, high profile players who are likely to die soon, particularly given Dgrazian was the first kill. I would probably do something similar myself. It just happens to work out to be a terrible choice. :(

If Krue doesn't reveal as gay knight by the end of today (or Sara doesn't switch in time), Sara will be stuck as a powerless vanilla townie: a gay knight without a lover. And if Ellena gets caught for her kill on Dgrazian, Sara will just die. :(
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 1:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Charles Santi Ellena and ara meeting right now.
Geeze things are going poorly. Ellena is sure now about all their roles.
Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:17 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
It's not too late. Remember how well the game was going for the mafia a couple games ago, before the town (Santiago in particular) figured everything out.

Though this game is overall less town-favored than that one, I think.

I thought EC had learned that this 'Trust my friends' thing is a terrible idea...
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:19 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
They were at first. But Ellena did a good job of calming them down and reviving the circle.
They will likely bang my brother kaboom charles. Krue then dies tomorrow, and Lucy dies tonight.
I think mafia win.
Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Simulationwise, game popped up as having a mafia win rate of 45%ish, without counting tasers, mayor, backups, seer (seers were approximated as prophets), or conscription. Overall the stuff missing would favor town if I stuck it in, I believe. However, I figured that due to expected town derpiness, it was okay to have game be slightly-town favored in a simulation. Although, I approximated 30% of game having alibis on average, and that percentage is much lower in a summer game.
Game still has a lot of swinginess potential though. There are a lot of investigations for today (though not a lot of investigators), and if town has its pants on it should be able to catch Ellena by tomorrow. One big downside of mafia no-killing on day one is that the superheroes all have an extra point, which could mean three extra investigations. Town also still has its seers, its shovels, and its tasers. Things aren't over yet.
Author:  anpere [ Wed Aug 13, 2014 2:36 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Running Commentary on Game
Mafia think there are a lot of investigators.
They know Santi is one, and they know Elaine is a super hero.
They might waste a set a trap on somebody they think to be a investigator.
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