Live Action Mafia

Alsoooo if they kaboom charles tonight, they lose their kaboom .

Yeah, since he changed his list from two mafia to two non-mafia. XD
Losing all their kabooms would make things difficult, given the three superheroes and two conspiracy theorists.

Mafia win rate of 45% with seer approximated as prophet? Then I would expect it to be significantly worse for the mafia.

But that sounds about right. My intuition was that the mafia ad a 30-40% chance from the get-go, before role distributions.

My above post didn't make sense. I would think that seer is significantly worse than prophet, and it surprises me that the simulated win-percentage for the town with seer being approximated as prophet is as low as 55%.

Separately, why, why, why is everyone spilling every role completely and totally needlessly!!

How to properly use seer:
Check someone's role.
Confront that person, say that you are seer and that you checked them.
Agree to say that person's role simultaneously, then do that.
If you agree, you're fairly sure that they're town and they're fairly sure that you're seer. Pretend to be gay knights with each other or something.
If you disagree, you start a lynch mob.

Seer catches mafia with 80% accuracy (and with the 20% case, you'll probably get some pretty big psychological clues). It's not publicly provable the same way prophet smites are, but you also don't die afterwards (which, if it weren't for backups, would be better than prophet). I still think it's weaker than prophet, because there's more complexity to using it, it doesn't work on conscripts, and results aren't public in the same way, but it's actually pretty close.

I also think it's better than prophet (in terms of existing as a role) because mafia can potentially do interesting things to play around it (e.g. faking seer with set-a-trap, claiming you were faking your role for some other reason, accusing the seer of being mafia, etc). Town play with prophet is much more cut-and-dry, with less of the confusion and possible sneakiness that define Live Action Mafia.

I don't even think you need to check them first.
Lie, say that you did. Do this to muliple people. Check one of the people who claimed a role mafia would likely claim. If they don't match.... lynch

Sounds like a good way to get yourself lynched.

What's Lucy doing.... She hasn't used any powers. She has <5 hours left to live

Not sure why Lucy is agreeing to being investigated. She can just publicly reveal as desperado now, and say to lynch her tomorrow if she doesn't die tonight.

yeah.... what gives.
If she dies the people who tried to get her impeached will look sketchy

Does she know she dies tonight...?

Yep. Definitely.

Actually, that might be why she isn't revealing. She might be waiting to see who is accusing her. Then she'll accuse them before she dies, and as a proven innocent, it will have a lot of weight. I wouldn't be surprised if she gets Lily lynched tomorrow, because Lily is acting pretty accusatory towards her. However, she will probably make Michikyo look innocent.

yeah. losing lily will be a heavy hit though. she's been very influential in the game.
also if she shows the number of people alive in the game before she dies.... town will know there is a conscript.

Yep. Knowing that will be pretty good for town, although less so because of the lack of innocent children.

lucy know lily is mafia.... I can feel it.

lucy.... I am impressed
shes going to do basically what we said.
She trusts Sarah Pratt and is working on getting her elected. She's getting herself impeached and getting Sarad Pratt elected.
Trouble is Lily has all the petitions.
Also they think there is only 1 investigator.

Surely she wants to count the mafia before she impeaches herself?

Also, quote by Lily: "My crazy theory is that Lucy is a desperado who activated day 0 and is going to die tonight. I hope that happens."

I want to shout at Lucy "COUNT THE MAFIA!", which she had wanted to do this morning, but I can't influence game.

No town! Don't do a "secret" lynch mob! If you actually posted what you were doing, she would reveal herself as a dying desperado and demonstrate her innocence after midnight!

Why the heck do people lynch people without telling the person first? All you'll get is a lot of people with provably innocent roles lynched. Lynching is GOOD for town as long as they don't do it in a dumb way, which is what often happens, and why it makes no lynch look like a good strategy.

Gah! If town lynches Lucy, I won't get to post the beautiful flavortext I wrote for her dying of desperation!!!!! NOOOOOOO!

*cries for my wasted flavortext*

And my heartbrokenness flavortext for Krue!!!!! They better fail to kill her. I don't want both of my flavortext pieces wasted.

So Lucy seems to be ANNOYED that Krue posted about her being a desperado. I don't understand... That is probably the only thing (other than Lily's accidental persuasiveness) that will prevent Lucy from being lynched. If Lucy dies as a desperado instead, she is revealed as being innocent (modulo terrible conscription), which makes anything she says true. Which is much better than the ambiguity of dying by lynch.

Getting Lucy lynched at this point is the best thing mafia would do.... I hope they fail

Damn.... Lucy never got to count the mafia

Yep. Lucy and Sarah were talking in our room, and Lily knocks on the door and asks to talk to me. She submits the impeachment petition. Lucy and Sarah notice and wtf. As soon as I make the official forum post, Sarah tries to submit her petition (which would have been HILARIOUS), but Sarah notices she only has 7 signatures. Despite holding onto the petition, Sam didn't actually sign it. O.O Anyway, they flounder about for a bit, and Lucy panics about not having been able to count the mafia. Lily knocks on the door fairly soon, and submits her petition. And that's how that went.

goddammit.
that was the chance.... its blown

Yeah, it would have been awesome if Sarah made herself mayor in the short time between me posting impeachment and Lily submitting her petition.

Town is being dumb. There are 4 proposed scenarios:
1. Lucy is mafia and they lynch her.
2. Lucy is mafia and they don't lynch her, tasering her instead.
3. Lucy is town and they lynch her, shoveling her.
4. Lucy is town and they don't lynch her, and she dies of desperation.

There is only one taser's worth of difference between 1 and 2. But the difference between 3 and 4 is much larger, because shovels are more valuable than tasers, and because 3 is vulnerable to plant evidence.

Honestly with the way things are going, town kind of deserves to lose.

Okay, it looks like town is actually being reasonable now. Lily is doing a good job of shifting blame away from herself, but I still kind of hope she gets lynched for it.

Also, Anpere, have you seen the votes? Some of them are for you. XD

I agree. It would take a miracle for them to win.

Lol yeah. They wouldn't be grouped as No-Lynch... because that's what I told EC.
like if its 3 no lynch 4 anpere 4 lucy, lucy would have a chance of dying.
as opposed to 7 no lynch 4 lucy.