Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 10:44 pm 
I can't wait for an EC trust circle member to die.... so I can complain yell and what not at that. and talk about the game with somebody in person...... ugh the silence is killing me

PostPosted: Wed Aug 13, 2014 11:48 pm 
Yeah, I just spilled all of game to Lucy. It was fun. We also talked with Dgrazian. Having people in your living group die is great, would recommend it.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 8:42 am 
Hope for the town post:

Lucy and I are hoping that Krue gets her pants on and gets Lily lynched tonight. Lily did a good job of backtracking from her uber-sketchiness, but we're hoping that Krue won't fall for it. That's pretty much the main way we think town can pull itself together. Hopefully Krue will also give Sarah Pratt some good advice before she dies. Also, shensley is thinking things through, so she might be able to pull something off.

General thoughts on pantsfulness of townies and if they could help save game for town:
aradhana - is dying soon
asjm - Seems to be making decisions independently of mafia's manipulation, and voted for Lily last night. Could probably be convinced to go along with a pantsful townie, but is unlikely to be the initiator. Needs to back someone the fuck up.
buttcrunch (Elaine) - Currently in Ellena's clutches, and will probably die if she gets to be too much of a problem. Would possibly see reason once she sees the trust circle obviously dying of set-a-trap.
drosophyllum (Santiago) - is dying soon
dukhovni - Thinking independently of mafia manipulation, but like asjm, probably doesn't have the sway to lead something. Should check someone with his seer power.
svolz - Not being super active, but isn't being manipulated either. Is currently backing up a mafia and a gay knight, and so aside from the scenario where Ellena gets lynched/smited, will end up being vanilla as of tomorrow.
cjfman (Charles) - In the clutches of Ellena and Lily, and will die if he gets to be a problem, although that will make Lily look bad. Like Elaine, will hopefully see reason when the trust circle starts to die.
Sarah Pratt - On the right track by following Krue and Lucy, but isn't suspicious enough of Lily, and might be too easily persuaded as a new player. However, she could still be dangerous to mafia, especially if Krue gives her good advice before she dies. Should take advantage of the fact that Lucy instructed town to follow her before she died, and that hopefully Krue will too.
boorstin (Marcus) - Similar boat to asjm and Sam. Not being manipulated, but probably not going to cause enough change on his own.
krue - Highest hopes for her saving the day. She should declare herself dictator, get Lily lynched for being a sketchball, and direct all investigations to be used on yesterday's death so that she can maximize the chance of investigating a mafia that she'll be able to smite. At best, could take down Lily and Ellena, leaving an advised Sarah Pratt in charge. It would require some luck and some pretty good play, but as an experienced player, I think it's in the realm of possibility for Krue to be able to do.
shensley - Also have fairly high hopes. Unlike the other relatively isolated players, shensley has been pretty pantsful and active about posting opinions and getting things done. She currently has two mafia on her conspiracy list, and she is rightly sketched out by Lily. She also has the honor of being one of the few sane townies who THOUGHT about why lynching Lucy would be a bad idea, and correctly explained the reasoning for it.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:25 am 
If the mafia didn't come to their senses about killing Ara and Santi the same day, then town could have caught Ellena.
I don't understand why they are so hot to kill them. Its the only reason why Lily is alive. I'm sure they could still be useful to mafia.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 10:26 am 
shensley is very promising. She is most suspicious of Ellena and Lily. It would be great if one of them tried to kill her.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:43 pm 
Yeah, I'm not sure exactly what Shensley is up to, but the fact that she has mafia on her conspiracy list has to be a good sign.

My present view though, is that the town fully deserves to be destroyed. Problems with the town:

1. They are exhibiting a cognitive fallacy (or at least unjustified bias) that, for lack of knowledge of a technical term, I will call the proximity effect: the tendency to trust people more who are close to you or who you interact with a lot. This is something that happens all the time in live action mafia, but many of the players in this game should know to be more wary.

2. They are allowing others to make decisions for them that they should be making for themselves. Notably, investigator and seer decisions. It's good to take other people's input, but you should never make an investigation choice simply because it was the vague consensus of the town, especially when you have a way of showing yourself to be innocent.

3. The near-provable innocents should be much more assertive in taking control of the town.

4. Everybody is letting Lily off the hook way too easily.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:51 pm 
Agreed. I'm rooting for town because they're the underdog, but I agree that they probably deserve to lose.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:56 pm 
I'm indifferent. It feels like it could go either way right now. Mafia are on a slippery slope. I see Ellena is trying to distance herself from lilychen.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:57 pm 
Lily and Ellena have built an empire of stone, but all it takes is one bad pebble for it all to crumble.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 12:58 pm 
So in addition to being unimpressed with the town's play, I am very impressed with the mafia. I think they deserve this. Also, I'm rooting for Lily!

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:00 pm 
Anpere: I'm less certain of that. One bad step or piece of bad luck could easily cause one of the mafia to be lost.

But as far as I can tell (and obviously I don't have anywhere close to a complete view of what's going on in the game) the mafia have done an impressive job of not tying themselves too closely together. I don't think that any one of them dying would be likely to incriminate any other of them.

Contrast that to a couple games ago when everything fell apart after kemus died. I don't see that happening in this game.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:02 pm 
i disagree.
if ellena gets caught, I think my brother will piece things together.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:04 pm 
Really...ok, I'm skeptical, but I'd believe it.

So whhhyyyyyyyyyy is he so completely hoodwinked by Ellena? He knows her well. Shouldn't he be able to read her better than other people?

Also, I thought he was convinced by Lily at the meeting yesterday?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:13 pm 
last game kemus was the person who led Santi(all of us actually) astray throughout the game. Once kemus was revealed he thought back to everything kemus said.
I think its likely that he will see how eager Ellena was to form a lynch mob against Lucy and how she was the one who got the whole group to forgive lily.
as for why he isn't reading Ellena, you said it yourself. He's close to her and wants them to be on the same side. He doesn't want to believe his friend is a mafia, he wants her to be townie and so he is following her blindly and absolving her suspicions.
He did admit though at one point that he believes one of them is mafia. However if Ara dies he might think Elaine is mafia.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:21 pm 
I agree that things might go badly if Ellena is exposed before the EC circle, particularly Santiago, dies. I think Lily or Michikyo being exposed would be fine though. Additionally, it won't matter that much if Ellena is exposed, if she takes down EC with her beforehand.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:28 pm 
You can want to believe that your friend isn't mafia, but that doesn't make it any more likely that he/she isn't. The role assignments are random! People need to realize that...

Anyway, there's no way that ellena dies without taking santiago with her, so no hope there. He (or somebody else) has to do something sooner rather than later.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 1:34 pm 
No chance. He's 100% sure lilychen is good. his plotting right now is how to get her safe from mafia.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 2:09 pm 

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 3:50 pm 
Ellena is complaining about how they missed the perfect kill.
She got Ara to the media lab, and Santi and Ellena were sitting together.
Lilychen wasn't able to make the kill.
Ellena is trying to get Lily to kill Santi at Barker.... my brother never goes to where he says he's going, so hopefully he doesn't actually go to barker...

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:02 pm 
he was with charles..... YES :D :D :D

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:12 pm 
Frustrations of Ellena for the amusement of town. Second hand telling of course.
Good plan to Ara. It was going to happen at McGovern, but then Ara decided not to do research and stay in the Kitchen.
Never mind that, instead Lily is going to hide in Kevin's room and an NP will lure Ara to the room. But then Santi arrives at EC. Next plan, an NP lured Ara to medical, but while that happened Lily was still trying to get into EC. By the time everything was clear Ara was back with Santi and Ellena.
Ellena was complaining about like several times she could have killed Santi

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:13 pm 
:( Why wasn't Lily able to make the kill?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:14 pm 
Oh, that's really frustrating...

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:18 pm 
lily was seen by shensley....

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:18 pm 
just now

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:20 pm 
What was shensley doing around there? And why didn't Lily just kill shensey?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:23 pm 
No! Is shensley going to realize anything and do something about it?

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:26 pm 
lily isn't suppose to be on campus in the eyes of town....
No idea. Ellena ran over to the infinite and tried killing her.
shensely had both on her list. getting caught by ellena by her trying to kill shensley would have beautiful for town.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:32 pm 
mafia are paranoid... I had no idea this could happen.

PostPosted: Thu Aug 14, 2014 4:32 pm 
Wait, are you saying Ellena tried and failed to kill shensley? Or are you not sure what ended up happening?

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