Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:06 pm 
SUMMARY OF EVENTS SO FAR
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To summarize, in rough chronological order (except for confirmations put where relevant):

1) Yesterday night at 10:30 in verdes, aradhana overheard michikyo talking to Ellena and kevinaer, in particular about kevinaer "not doing what she told him to do."

2) aradhana planned to post this last night, but first told anpere, who said to wait so he can test out a plan. This plan was later revealed to be a scheme involving testing if kevinaer is mafia by asking him for a mike he never had. The formation of this scheme last night was confirmed by ciara.

3) mads got killed today at 11:53am in e25-111. michikyo's alibi is psetting with NPs for ~45 min up to 12:39 pm, anpere's is that he was on 4E (since 11:44 am with michikyo?). He posted this at 1:13 pm, before all the michikyo stuff was posted

4) At 3:05 pm aradhana posts the post about michikyo.

5) 4:27 pm, aradhana announces michikyo's claim of investigative powers (later announces she's investigator Ade), with kevin as her proxy, explaining the suspicious conversation (since kevin had not been posting results)

6) 5:17 pm, anpere announces investigation result showing michikyo killed mads. Asks for a taser at EC ( :/ ), jessk confirms guilty result.

CONCLUSIONS FROM THIS
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The possible conclusions are:
1) michikyo is mafia, kevinaer is another mafia or rogue, michikyo wanted kevinaer to do something (kill someone, or post fake investigation results maybe). anpere thinks of the plan, the plan doesn't work, michikyo HAPPENS to be the one killing mads, this is investigated after the overhearing is announced.

2) anpere is conscripted; anpere is contacted by aradhana, thinks of the trick to frame michikyo and not make himself suspicious. In particular, he makes sure to find a (somewhat contrived) reason to delay the posting of aradhana's suspicions of michikyo until after mads is killed to ensure it does not look like a Frame a Townsperson. He then announces the inspection result and asks for a taser (to waste it?).

3) Less likely options are: aradhana made the scheme to frame michikyo AND anpere; kevinaer made the scheme somehow magically; other people were notified and secretly made the plot

What we do not yet know is what time anpere told aradhana to post the suspicions publicly. This may matter.
We also do not have michikyo's inspection results, which should be posted if she wants to not be suspicious.

WHAT 2 DO NOW
-----------------
Either:
1) Lynch whichever one of them seems more suspicious. Problem is planting evidence.

2) Someone proposed an Emergency Smite to test if michikyo is guilty, after which we can lynch anpere, or not. No problem except hard to organize in remaining time, and uses up a prophet.

Either way, we should elect a mayor soon, and until this stuff is sorted out it should not be anpere.

I'll go around random/EC after 9:30 with petitions (for multiple people, including myself) if there aren't any active petitions right now; if wanted whoever is elected can then use shady contacts to check for anpere or someone else being conscripted.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:16 pm 
agreed, mayor can count the mafia and i think we need that at 11:01 regardless of who we lynch..


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:18 pm 
also, marian has legally blonde rehearsal until 10 so we should wait for her to post in more detail.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:21 pm 
Oh I forgot to post my own opinions. Personally I find both of them suspicious but anpere more so mostly because of statements like "it's amazing Alex didn't conscript me," so as of now I'm going to vote for anpere, but please come to your own conclusions. Also, we definitely should wait for both of them to defend themselves.

And we should consider having a smiting if more people besides me are actually reading this right now :(

Also if anyone has put these, well, chains of events together in a way that makes more sense, feel free to pm me


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:32 pm 
I don't understand why you think it is so suspicious for someone to post that they are surprised that they weren't conscripted. I think it could go either way; it could be genuine surprise that they weren't conscripted or it could be trying too hard to appear innocent (double reverse psychology) but I don't think it makes sense to decide that either one of those two is more likely unless you have more reasons than that alone.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:35 pm 
We should lynch both michikyo and anpere. One of them is definitely mafia and trading one-for-one is great for town. If michikyo shovels as mafia, start investigating kevinaer.

That said, I think michikyo still has to be considered more suspicious. In your scenario 2, anpere must know he's suspicious and will still be suspicious regardless of what happens to michikyo, so framing her does nothing except get one more townsperson lynched. Planting evidence is a once-per-game power, and I don't think this would be a particularly productive use of it.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:38 pm 
To both of you above: I guess you're right... I think I'm just giving myself too much of a confirmation bias now.

And, actually, I suppose if we are to use shady contacts, lynching the one who's suspected natural mafia gives clearer results than lynching the one who's suspected conscript. Still, I'm not sure, and will wait for their defenses before making a final decision.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:45 pm 
Doesn't Shady Contacts count conscripted mafia? I thought it was stated at kickoff that the number includes born mafia and conscripts but not rogues, inducted or not. The written rules for it don't say anything about "natural-born."


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:50 pm 
dininno wrote:
Doesn't Shady Contacts count conscripted mafia? I thought it was stated at kickoff that the number includes born mafia and conscripts but not rogues, inducted or not. The written rules for it don't say anything about "natural-born."


Yes, it does. My point is that we know almost certainly exactly 3 natural-born mafia are left, so:
If michikyo is lynched:
1) If michikyo is mafia, anpere is most likely not (yet) conscripted, so the answer afterwards will be 2, or 3 if someone else was conscripted.
2) If anpere is mafia, michikyo is not, so the answer afterwards will be 4.

If anpere is lynched instead:
1) If michikyo is mafia, the answer will be 3 or 4.
2) If anpere was conscripted, the answer will be 3.

So the first choice allows us to distinguish the cases.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:55 pm 
In other news, I'm going to come to Random right now (all the way from New house...) to get a few petitions signed and sign any you have. Feel free to come sign these too, or I can entrust them to various people at Random. Please come open the door for me and stuff maybe? Let's just meet in the lobby.

Wait actually idk how I'm going to get in without knowing how to contact anyone but we'll figure stuff out


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:58 pm 
That ignores the small but significant possibilities that

1) abergal was actually mafia
2) one of the unknown kills (especially the ones in Random) was actually made by a prophet who was killed soon after/was a noob and didn't announce to town
3) michikyo and anpere are both mafia and didn't coordinate very well

I would absolutely not pronounce anpere innocent if 2 or 3 comes up.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 8:59 pm 
I will be waiting in the airlock to let you in.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:03 pm 
Anpere told me of this plan last night. At that time I had already messaged several people about michikyo. He wouldn't reveal his plan to me, but I'm fairly sure it involved manipulating Adalid by making him a false offer of sorts--what I could glean from Ellena and Andres. He had this plan before I met him to tell him about michikyo. That is confirmed by Ellena, and from me sketchily listening though my door (not terribly on purpose, I can hear a good portion of hall from my room including the area in front of big-Kevin's door). Admittedly Ellena is a sketch-ball at best, but she's been very useful to town this game, so I'm inclined to go with her.

Andres was okay with me posting about her, but not Adalid. I kinda knew the plan would fail. It may well be that he had time to fake it on michikyo, but honestly I've played with both of them for a few games, and I'm inclined to trust Andres's innocence, and michikyo as mafia.

Mariam was almost too laid back when she came to me to say that she was innocent. I slightly harassed Andres about posting at night time, and he became very emotional/earnest that it would mess with his plan. He said I could post it the moment I woke up (I just happened to be running late for a midterm when I woke up and didn't have laptop access until 3).


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:06 pm 
Agreed! Also as someone who formed Andres's secret lynch mob two games ago, I understand he often seems like a sketchy fucker--it's because he does silly things like fake kill people and ask for everyone's roles all the time. I don't ever trust him very much, and I think dininno's logic is solid.

dininno wrote:
We should lynch both michikyo and anpere. One of them is definitely mafia and trading one-for-one is great for town. If michikyo shovels as mafia, start investigating kevinaer.

That said, I think michikyo still has to be considered more suspicious. In your scenario 2, anpere must know he's suspicious and will still be suspicious regardless of what happens to michikyo, so framing her does nothing except get one more townsperson lynched. Planting evidence is a once-per-game power, and I don't think this would be a particularly productive use of it.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:07 pm 
I just left new house, coming sorry I'm slow


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:31 pm 
leaving random now


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:43 pm 
he was safe when he left. dininno can affirm.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:44 pm 
How many signatures are on what petitions?

I'll note that there's a sizable number of living players at ET (10ish?) so petitions should probably make their way over some time.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:47 pm 
Btw, multiple NPs have been warning me that Marian is trying to kill me right now.
(Also, multiple NPs have been warning me about other NPs lying about Marian trying to kill me)
They could be fucking with me, idk


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:48 pm 
lgunder now has petitions for sammyluo for mayor, lgunder for mayor, and me for police officer (I think.) He is planning to hand them off to the next ET person he meets.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:48 pm 
In case this wasn't clear, LYNCH MICHIKYO.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 9:50 pm 
i actually just remembered that tech squares is tomorrow, so i'll likely seek out adamberg there and hand them off to her. et people check in that she received them, and try and sign them.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:20 pm 
At 10:56 an np began carding our room.
By 11 there was a clot of people waiting outside the door.
Marian looked sad when she was lynched, this could go either way.
We won't know anything until we shovel her.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:23 pm 
Also if I die tonight y'all should assume a hit man was hired.


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PostPosted: Mon Oct 06, 2014 10:29 pm 
:shock: NPs on hall are such trolls; I've been "assassinated" by like 4 NPs since 11


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