Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:16 pm 
Petitions are at ET.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:48 am 
Adamberg (Lotta) had gotten the petitions from Arkadiy before he died and I assume passed it on to someone else.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:04 am 
"The negative result from Aang came after the day rolled over and ltchin was dead. I really doubt the mafia would take such a big risk just to confuse us a little more."

Did it? Or did they know about the day extension by then, in which case it's a great move to avoid Lily's death. Guys, I'm getting weird feelings about this all over. Two of three investigations came out positive for ltchin, and the negative one was terribly last minute.

I don't trust this. Coming up positive twice and from fairly independent ends is not okay. At this point, we should lynch her on principle.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:58 am 
We had no idea about the extension. The results were posted at 11:12 and Josh announced the extension by 11:30. And ciara posted about the foobar investigation confusion after my post, so there was no reason to believe the day would be extended. Also, Gods admitted that the investigation for insley that foobar made was actually negative, not positive like foobar thought, or the wouldn't have delayed the day. Thus, the only reason to believe ltchin is mafia is because of her positive investigation for arkadiyf, because the negative investigation for Aang was confirmed by another investigator and God.

I


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:59 am 
negative investigation for *insley by Aang. Sorry, just woke up =.=


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 8:10 am 
God confirmed that ltchin was innocent for the inisley death, basically.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 11:53 am 
Oh okay, could we still get a redo on the arkadiyf investigation with ltchin, so that we can confirm whether she's guilty? We could have Aang and foobar do that one, since they had opposing results (initally anyway) for the previous investigation.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:08 pm 
I don't feel like that's necessary; don't we already have 2 on that one?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 12:21 pm 
yeah, there was already confirmation. those investigations would probably be best used elsewhere.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:12 pm 
Okay so we know that the arkadiyf investigation with ltchin came up positive. In that case, I would still strongly urge to lynch her today. I feel there's enough suspicion to justify it. What do you say?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:17 pm 
I agree. I think it's likely that the mafia are waiting to use their frame on either me, ara, or lgunder (though framing ltchin would be a good way of eliminating an experienced player). I really believe kevinaer and michikyo were mafia.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 2:30 pm 
alas, i think i'll need to agree as well. it was either a really great use of frame, or it was ltchin. i think it'd be better to lynch her, so as to set a precedent for the mafia (if ltchin did the killing and we don't lynch her, then the mafia will think that they can easily frame someone "obvious" and have them get away with it).


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 3:54 pm 
anpere wrote:
I really believe kevinaer and michikyo were mafia.


Ok, everything that's been said here appears to be formally valid, but I'd like to post a reminder that michikyo being mafia should be moderately negatively correlated with ltchin being mafia or mafia-known rogue (because their not being mafia should be strongly negatively correlated... well, ok, but you know what I mean). It says nothing about ltchin potentially being unknown rogue accidentally framed by mafia, but I find this pretty unlikely.

In particular, if we're suspecting, e.g., ara for framing michikyo, we should be suspecting that ltchin was not framed. This is why as of now I think ltchin is the most probable target still, even though I'm hesitant to conclude michikyo was framed because ara's actions seemed somewhat justifiable in the context of anpere's actions, and vice versa.

Of course, don't forget about me. Remember that you folks demanded an explanation from me for a certain sketchy "private" message. I promise this explanation should come quite soon. If everyone lets this slide without demanding it from me again before, say, Thursday night, we're not making very optimal decisions :P


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:19 pm 
wait, sammyluo, what is the explanation for the password? you said you'd tell people. i'm just wondering if there is a very good reason why you won't tell us what the deal is? If so, do keep it secret, but tell us eventually (as in within 5 days or so).


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:23 pm 
Soft deadline for explanation is after daybreak/rollover/whatever it's called tonight, or immediately after I get killed; hard deadline is daybreak on Friday night.

I've already posted credibility criteria for the people giving the explanation on a different thread (username length congruent to 2 mod 3, at least one should outlast me or the deadline), in case I die before I can explain.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 4:55 pm 
I thought we shoveled michikyo and she came up innocent?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:07 pm 
fmajluf7 wrote:
I thought we shoveled michikyo and she came up innocent?

Yeah so either that was plant evidence (michikyo guilty) and ltchin's may or may not be frame, or that was frame (michikyo innocent) and ltchin's kill is real.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:20 pm 
Given michikyo's behavior in person I'm inclined to believe she is mafia. I have no idea about ltchin.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:22 pm 
lgunder wrote:
if ltchin did the killing and we don't lynch her, then the mafia will think that they can easily frame someone "obvious" and have them get away with it


^^ This doesn't make any sense. Mafia has only one frame / game, so they can't use me being not-lynched as a precedent to just make really obvious kills... It's pretty much either 1) michikyo was mafia and Mainpulate the Graveyard was used to make her look like investigator and save Kevin's bacon. This makes me innocent and Framed. or 2) michikyo was investigator and Frame was used on her to make her look like she killed someone. This makes me scum.

I think that Scenario 1 is much more reasonable because this was such an obvious use of Frame - the sketchy alibis and everything. In scenario 2, why would mafia frame michikyo? She was relatively inactive and it doesn't make sense for them to just randomly set someone and then SURPRISE! She's scum. They would have no way of knowing that michikyo would happen to be investigated for that kill.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:23 pm 
I just have to point out that if you were town and you were about top be lynched, would you fight as hard as if you were one of only two mafia left? I don't think you would. I think Lilly might be fighting too hard and very suspiciously so


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:25 pm 
I don't think it's really that suspicious to not want to die? Especially when I've been goddang framed like this and would be lynched for no reason? If you don't fight for yourself, you're suspicious (sammyluo, kevinaer). If you do fight for yourself, you're suspicious (ltchin) >_>"


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:29 pm 
Yeah, it's perfectly reasonable for a townie to fight against a lynch, especially if they were framed twice.
I'm not saying she isn't a mafia, I'm just saying your reasoning for blaming her is not justified.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:38 pm 
I think that ltchin is innocent because unless arkadiyf's death was unplanned and spontaneous, ltchin's alibi makes it unlikely she would have made the kill. I have 8.022 with arkadiyf(which starts at 2 in 6-120), and he was a couple minutes late yesterday, but he's not usually late. I doubt that anybody who has class that ends at 2 would have planned to make the kill unless they also planned to leave class early, and based on ltchin's alibi, she actually hung around to talk to a professor at the end. I suppose it's possible that ltchin just happened to see arkadiyf on her way back to random and spontaneously decided to kill him, but I kinda feel like the mafia would plan their kills better than that.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 5:57 pm 
++ to lisakong's comment and logic.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:08 pm 
Please tell me we are not trying to skirt around lynching ltchin again based on hunches... There is a confirmed positive investigation on her and she has an unconfirmable (and not even useful) role. We lynch her. End of story.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:26 pm 
Yeah, sorry ltchin, but I think at this point we just can't let positive investigation results that aren't provably wrong pass by. I would actually probably put your probability of guilt at ~30% (rough estimate, probably quite far off from the actual probability); a contributing factor is that I have no real way of determining whether you or michikyo is more likely to be framed, since your alibis, etc. appeared similar in credibility.

I suppose we could wait until officers are elected to clear things up, but, unless another person is found to be positive for arkadiyf, from my perspective I feel like expected utility for town is highest if we lynch you tonight :(

Speaking of which, should other investigators be checking arkadiyf's death with other potential killers?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:42 pm 
I have a question: why the sudden change of heart tonight? like all of these arguments were present last night lol


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:55 pm 
The simple answer is time pressure. I really didn't want ltchin lynched without the whole thing with investigators and whatnot cleared up. I was hoping more people would investigate that kill for potential other killers today, but I guess that didn't happen, or hasn't yet, at least. Also, I attribute to kevinaer a higher guilty probability than ltchin (>80% if michikyo is guilty, >25% if michikyo is innocent), so lynching him seemed like a reasonable higher priority.

Also, last night at the time of posting "lynch me or kevinaer not ltchin" I honestly would've put ltchin guilt at 10% or less, though whether or not this was a logical conclusion is debatable. I guess this can't really be determined without knowing what the whole sketchy PM thing was about, but I also don't think it's wise to reveal that until after daybreak tonight. So there's a bit of a dilemma. Regardless, I realize that ltchin is eventually going to have to be lynched if the game doesn't end before we get to it (as all the suspicious mafia get found her relative suspiciousness from that kill/frame will grow), unless mayor count definitively rules her out or she gets interrogated or something.

So yeah, interpret how you will.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:58 pm 
mmk was just wondering.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 9
PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 6:58 pm 
also poor Eric isn't even getting discussed.


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