ltchin wrote:
...am I dead or not?
That depends on what people vote
btw I'm voting kevinaer of course, it's ok if you guys want to lynch me still, your decision.
EDIT: Outposted
kevinaer pls defend yourself. did you already role-claim?
| Live Action Mafia http://mafia.mit.edu/ |
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| votes extended until 11:47 tonight http://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=96&t=3133 |
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| Author: | Josh Frisch [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:31 pm ] |
| Post subject: | votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Sorry about that, day is extended until 11:47 tonight. |
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| Author: | ltchin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:32 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
...am I dead or not? |
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| Author: | Josh Frisch [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
not dead yet, depends on votes tonight, feel free to continue posting in the meantime. |
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| Author: | sammyluo [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:33 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
ltchin wrote: ...am I dead or not? That depends on what people vote btw I'm voting kevinaer of course, it's ok if you guys want to lynch me still, your decision. EDIT: Outposted kevinaer pls defend yourself. did you already role-claim? |
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| Author: | Justin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:34 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Ugh, really? Guys. There is a triply confirmed positive investigation on Lilly. I don't care how innocent seeming she is we HAVE TO LYNCH HER. The mafia only get one frame per game and I refuse to give them free value out of its existence without them even having to use it. |
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| Author: | ciara [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Triple? What was the second and third positive confirmation other than today's kill? |
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| Author: | sammyluo [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:35 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
ciara wrote: Triple? What was the second and third positive confirmation other than today's kill? He means three investigations on today's kill |
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| Author: | ltchin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:36 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
kevinaer has not claimed yet. FYI, my computer is almost out of battery so I might cut out in the middle, so this will be exciting1111! or something If my computer dies from now until 11:47, bang randomly on your keyboard in all caps for a close approximation of what I will post. I believe I've stated all that I need to! |
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| Author: | sammyluo [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:37 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Lol ok, have fun in Phoenix or whatever 
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| Author: | Justin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:38 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Sorry was it double? I thought there were 3 but I might have gotten it wrong out of exasperation... I meant we know have multiple confirmations that she is coming up positive for today's kill, frame or not. Let me put it this way: a very conservative lower bound on the probability that Lilly is mafia is ~20%. An approximate upper bound from my perspective that literally any other player in the game is mafia is probably about 15%. Lynching anyone other than Lilly is an awful idea. And she's not even a useful role that we need to consider saving. |
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| Author: | dininno [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:39 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Three consistent investigations say nothing about whether frame was used. Someone should investigate lgunder for arkadiyf, though. |
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| Author: | lgunder [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
tbh, justin you have excellent points, but for me i have decided not to lynch ltchin, yet. its likely that in about two days i'll advocate for her lynching, but for now i'd rather not. |
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| Author: | lgunder [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:40 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
i'm pretty sure someone already investigated me for that kill. |
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| Author: | fmajluf7 [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
So, a really noobie question but.. Do we like revote if we voted before 11? |
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| Author: | lgunder [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:41 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
here is the link for my investigation: search.php?keywords=lane+arcadiy&terms=all&author=&sc=1&sf=all&sk=t&sd=d&sr=posts&st=0&ch=300&t=0&submit=Search |
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| Author: | ltchin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Again, I rebut this by reiterating that I've been an active player of the game and have been helping out in discussions at Random Hall with lgunder and dininno. I might not be a super helpful role but I am a townie. Mafia are loving this sketch train that's happening right now and are going to ride it to its fullest. kevinaer, by inactivity, has been a 0 or perhaps negative influence on the game, if michikyo was indeed investigator by not posting her results. |
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| Author: | ltchin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:42 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
(this refers to Justin's post) |
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| Author: | jessk [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
yes you can revote if you want to (this refers to fmajluf7's post) |
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| Author: | achester [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:43 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
I'm also switching my vote from ltchin to kevinaer. 20% is a reasonable estimate for ltchin (putting her high on the sketchiness list), but 15% for kevinaer? He's in a set of about four people basically guaranteed to have at least one mafia (lower bound of 25%) and is the sketchiest of that set and doesn't have a provable role and has been inactive and therefore not valuable even if he is innocent. |
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| Author: | lgunder [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:45 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
++ to achester's comment. |
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| Author: | Justin [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:46 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Here's the thing. Frame is a power the mafia get that basically says "lynch a townie" and pretending its any other way is silly. If we don't lynch Lilly we're potentially giving the mafia a free out of claiming they were framed without them even having to use it. In general, if we lynch every single person that has confirmed investigations on them, we can only be wrong once. If we don't lynch every one of those people, we can be wrong many times. Lilly: the problem with your claim of being helpful/active is that you're only being helpful if you're actually town, otherwise you're being actively harmful! Again, you're the most likely person in the game to be mafia right now from my perspective (and I don't see what additional information most people could have) and any other lynch is just a bad idea. Pesto: what set of 4 people is gauranteed to be mafia? |
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| Author: | fmajluf7 [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 10:49 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
If you account for mafia investigators/proxies, you can be wrong more than once. |
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| Author: | achester [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:06 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
I wasn't actually keeping up with who said what in the whole EC mess over michikyo (sorry, I was busy and there were a lot of stories), just that there's at least one mafia in it because people have conflicting stories, that there were about 4 people involved, and that kevinaer was the sketchiest. Can someone who was following post a summary, or at least the minimal possible sets of mafia there? |
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| Author: | sammyluo [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:09 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
ltchin wrote: if michikyo was indeed investigator by not posting her results. From your perspective this is virtually impossible since then both of you were framed. |
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| Author: | jessk [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:14 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Summary of michikyo madness: Sunday night, Aradhana overheard michikyo talking to kevinaer in verdes. She heard michikyo say that kevin "wasn't doing what he was supposed to do". She messaged anpere and lgunder and told them this. Later in the night (possibly after midnight, I don't remember) anpere told me the story. Then, michikyo came up positive for mads's kill. Then, aradhana posted the story of the previous night. In response, michikyo claimed that she was investigator Abe, and kevin was her proxy, and they were talking about him not posting her investigation results. Michikyo later posted her investigations (including "anpere did not kill mads"), and was lynched. We shoveled her, and she showed up as investigator. |
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| Author: | jessk [ Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:15 pm ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
Aradhana, anpere, lgunder, or kevinaer are the suspected mafia from this, I think (though I wasn't the one who said that so I'm not totally sure if that's correct) |
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| Author: | ltchin [ Wed Oct 08, 2014 1:51 am ] |
| Post subject: | Re: votes extended until 11:47 tonight |
sammyluo wrote: ltchin wrote: if michikyo was indeed investigator by not posting her results. From your perspective this is virtually impossible since then both of you were framed. My bad, I was pretty confused by what happened until jessk explained it. |
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