I was going to wait some more until the whole ltchin thing happened yesterday. This was typed up right before the first positive investigation result on ltchin, and haphazardly patched to account for some of the unfolding events after that. As such, some of this is probably outdated, but still could be useful to keep in mind.
tl;dr: My adventures as “rogue” and the little information I’ve found: ltchin is above average suspicion [well ok idk anymore], simmons is below average, a few confirmed innocents, dininno watch out, also they probably didn’t collect enough rogues by the end of the lopezv thing. Also a lot of this is obviated by ltchin’s being framed or actually killing someone but whatever.
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To be delivered in the town square on the eve of Day 11 (that is, Friday night at 11 PM, Oct. 10th), or at the moment of my death, whichever comes first:
Hello, mafia! To be honest, I’m quite hurt that you’ve all but ignored me, not trusting me enough to even bother sending me a message with the promised password :'(. I’ve tried hard to do things satisfactorily in your eyes to earn your approval, but I guess I didn’t try hard enough to jeopardize town’s position in the game, so that wasn’t good enough for you. It’s probably good for you that you took your precautions though, because, as you have no doubt figured out, I’m not actually a rogue.
Now, onto the real business:
[all quotes are actually paraphrases to avoid Josh’s anger]
Hello, town! If you’re reading this, either I’m dead (and thus mafia has figured out my disloyalty, or some noobish rogue has dared to snub a fellow “rogue”), or it’s been so long that I don’t think my plan is worth keeping secret anymore. Without further ado, let me explain…
What I did (in rough chronological order):1) Day 4: aok claims abergal tried to kill him, abergal denies, is tazed, says she’s mafia, asks rogues to reveal to her so that she can verify their kill targets and connect them to mafia.
Many people reveal to abergal at this point, including townies trying to stop mafia.
I reveal to abergal as rogue, say I’m planning to kill lilychen. She replies saying “kill target approved.” At this point I already suspect this is a town plan to troll the rogues, especially since abergal asks rogues to specify which kills they made that day, and how.
2) Just to make sure no misunderstandings would happen, I immediately PM some trustworthy people (dukhovni, Haley, and one person still alive at the time of writing), lilychen (my “kill target”), and dgrazian (after he suggests townies pretend to be rogues to add noise), telling them what I had done and my suspicions that abergal was either crazy, or a trolling townie. I then say something about having a conjecture about abergal on the forums. aok PMs me saying “please don’t reveal, tell me and dgrazian first.” I refuse to tell him until later when it’s clear he’s lying (
the whole medkit thing I’ve already explained), and ask him to confirm or deny that the whole thing is a plot by him and abergal to trick rogues. He confirms, and I promise him not to leak the info.
3) Day 5, lopezv immediately rampages and kills all the people I’ve told about the lilychen thing. He publicly asks rogues to PM him, showing that abergal was not real mafia. In addition, Alex is shown to be suspicious and eventually also goes on a rampage. Since he was the one (recruited IC) with the rogue list from abergal, he now has all the rogue kill plans.
I PM lopezv in the morning (10:15 am) saying, in effect,
“sorry this is late but I’m rogue, I was going to kill lilychen but I guess I’ll kill ltchin now.”4) lopezv proceeds to give me considerable information (assuming he’s not a really good troll who already knew I was fake).
A. First,
“I’d prefer you go for hiji, he’s a bigger threat.” This is strange, and I have no idea what bigger threat means. Later I take this as
likely meaning ltchin is mafia-aligned and he didn’t want to tell me this. BUT I’m still not sure of this implication.B. Then,
“actually, plz get dininno or someone like that”. Again, interpret as you will; I tell someone I trust to warn dininno of the potential attack.
C. After consulting said trusted person, I tell lopezv that dininno’s intro says he’s out of town, so I should try someone else. Also I whine about how I live on west campus, it’s a weekend, killing people safely is hard. He replies:
“Yeah killing someone to prove yourself would be nice. How about someone in simmons? Actually, pick anyone and just pm me before you kill them.”This
most likely just means simmons is closer to where you live, you can go without suspicion. However,
there’s a chance it means “no one in simmons is mafia, please go introduce some chaos.”I then tell him I couldn’t find anyone to kill. He says to send a list of planned targets and he’ll let the others know. I do this, giving justification for my choices, and he confirms receipt.
5) 3 pm the next day (Day 6) I meet with the trusted person I said I was going to kill, and we each plan a message. First, (2:49 pm) trusted person sends a (BCC) message out to qql, mads, and a confirmed innocent, telling them of our plan. mads replies saying she doubts it’ll work since lopezv rejected ampere. At this point I am pretty sure my plan is working better, though. Then, (3:40 pm) trusted person sends a (BCC) message saying “help sammyluo was acting sketchy when I met him for a pset, so I left early. Not a big deal and not confirmed guilty, but please keep in mind.”
This message was sent to: ltchin, lisakong, Sarah Pratt, Justin, the four people we (or, rather, town boards) thought were most suspicious at the time. He gets a response from lisakong saying “sammyluo suspected you a few days ago so you two should just work things out
”.
6) At 4:13 pm on Day 6, I send a message to Alex (confirmed conscript) saying “I just tried to kill trusted person but they seemed suspicious of me and may have had protection, so I stopped. Who should I kill now?” Alex does a good job of not giving me useful information, but here is the exchange:
-Alex: “Who told you to kill this person? What were the orders?”
He’s probably worried abergal & co. managed to retain command over some rogues and their next kills.HOWEVER, this could also mean: “some mafia members got a message warning about you – you need to be careful with your kills and not get exposed. Again, this is a very stretchy inference, but I would say the message marginally increases the probability that one of the four recipients was mafia-aligned.
-Me: “lopezv told me to kill after giving him a list. Did I do something wrong? :O ”
-Alex: “nah, just making sure. Just kill safely and don’t get caught. Tell me before though. Do you have any useful info? Of course you should kill today since I’m getting lynched tonight.
BTW, if mafia contacts you in the future, only believe them if they know the password I just told them, [silly password]”
-Me: “Ok [excuses for being busy and not making kills today]”
-Alex: “It’s alright, don’t push it”
…and that’s the last I’ve heard from mafia.
Now, some comments:ltchinThere was going to be a large section on ltchin’s suspected guilt here but I suppose that’s been obviated now. Basically it was about: 1) lopezv “stopping” me from killing ltchin, 2) ltchin asking everyone to lynch lopezv (and not Alex) (again, completely reasonable but could be a way to ensure lopezv recruits a rogue without risking two mafia deaths), 3) the four-person-list thing, 4) various instances of being near a kill and then posting stuff indicating she’s scared.
Again, in retrospect all this was probably insufficient evidence; still, it’s good stuff to keep in mind / reveal, I guess.
Other suspectsAlex's response slightly increases the chance that at least one of the list {ltchin, Sarah Pratt, Justin, lisakong} is mafia-aligned. Sarah Pratt is dead desperado, and of the others I think lisakong is the most likely innocent, with Justin close by. ltchin is thus most suspicious. But this is not that much of a factor, just something to keep in mind.
Why mafia did not recruit meEither:
-They did try, with either lopezv or Alex. Then they've known I was fake all along, so no wonder I didn't get contacted. But this did not seem to be the case. In fact, I suspect they're still not entirely sure before I posted this.
-They were too scared I was fake, for no real reason except that they're being cautious.
-One of the people we told (qql? or the other people we trusted beforehand) leaked the info to them about the plan with fake-killing Jakob. More comments later.
Confirmed innocencejakob, the “trusted person” above, is innocent.
jingyizz is almost certainly innocent.
vickiew is probably innocent (but with very high uncertainty)
dininno is probably innocent, and was a likely kill for a while