Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:11 pm 
I was going to wait some more until the whole ltchin thing happened yesterday. This was typed up right before the first positive investigation result on ltchin, and haphazardly patched to account for some of the unfolding events after that. As such, some of this is probably outdated, but still could be useful to keep in mind.

tl;dr: My adventures as “rogue” and the little information I’ve found: ltchin is above average suspicion [well ok idk anymore], simmons is below average, a few confirmed innocents, dininno watch out, also they probably didn’t collect enough rogues by the end of the lopezv thing. Also a lot of this is obviated by ltchin’s being framed or actually killing someone but whatever.

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To be delivered in the town square on the eve of Day 11 (that is, Friday night at 11 PM, Oct. 10th), or at the moment of my death, whichever comes first:

Hello, mafia! To be honest, I’m quite hurt that you’ve all but ignored me, not trusting me enough to even bother sending me a message with the promised password :'(. I’ve tried hard to do things satisfactorily in your eyes to earn your approval, but I guess I didn’t try hard enough to jeopardize town’s position in the game, so that wasn’t good enough for you. It’s probably good for you that you took your precautions though, because, as you have no doubt figured out, I’m not actually a rogue.

Now, onto the real business:
[all quotes are actually paraphrases to avoid Josh’s anger]
Hello, town! If you’re reading this, either I’m dead (and thus mafia has figured out my disloyalty, or some noobish rogue has dared to snub a fellow “rogue”), or it’s been so long that I don’t think my plan is worth keeping secret anymore. Without further ado, let me explain…
What I did (in rough chronological order):

1) Day 4: aok claims abergal tried to kill him, abergal denies, is tazed, says she’s mafia, asks rogues to reveal to her so that she can verify their kill targets and connect them to mafia.
Many people reveal to abergal at this point, including townies trying to stop mafia.
I reveal to abergal as rogue, say I’m planning to kill lilychen. She replies saying “kill target approved.” At this point I already suspect this is a town plan to troll the rogues, especially since abergal asks rogues to specify which kills they made that day, and how.

2) Just to make sure no misunderstandings would happen, I immediately PM some trustworthy people (dukhovni, Haley, and one person still alive at the time of writing), lilychen (my “kill target”), and dgrazian (after he suggests townies pretend to be rogues to add noise), telling them what I had done and my suspicions that abergal was either crazy, or a trolling townie. I then say something about having a conjecture about abergal on the forums. aok PMs me saying “please don’t reveal, tell me and dgrazian first.” I refuse to tell him until later when it’s clear he’s lying (the whole medkit thing I’ve already explained), and ask him to confirm or deny that the whole thing is a plot by him and abergal to trick rogues. He confirms, and I promise him not to leak the info.

3) Day 5, lopezv immediately rampages and kills all the people I’ve told about the lilychen thing. He publicly asks rogues to PM him, showing that abergal was not real mafia. In addition, Alex is shown to be suspicious and eventually also goes on a rampage. Since he was the one (recruited IC) with the rogue list from abergal, he now has all the rogue kill plans.
I PM lopezv in the morning (10:15 am) saying, in effect, “sorry this is late but I’m rogue, I was going to kill lilychen but I guess I’ll kill ltchin now.”

4) lopezv proceeds to give me considerable information (assuming he’s not a really good troll who already knew I was fake).
A. First, “I’d prefer you go for hiji, he’s a bigger threat.” This is strange, and I have no idea what bigger threat means. Later I take this as likely meaning ltchin is mafia-aligned and he didn’t want to tell me this. BUT I’m still not sure of this implication.
B. Then, “actually, plz get dininno or someone like that”. Again, interpret as you will; I tell someone I trust to warn dininno of the potential attack.
C. After consulting said trusted person, I tell lopezv that dininno’s intro says he’s out of town, so I should try someone else. Also I whine about how I live on west campus, it’s a weekend, killing people safely is hard. He replies:
“Yeah killing someone to prove yourself would be nice. How about someone in simmons? Actually, pick anyone and just pm me before you kill them.”
This most likely just means simmons is closer to where you live, you can go without suspicion. However, there’s a chance it means “no one in simmons is mafia, please go introduce some chaos.”

I then tell him I couldn’t find anyone to kill. He says to send a list of planned targets and he’ll let the others know. I do this, giving justification for my choices, and he confirms receipt.

5) 3 pm the next day (Day 6) I meet with the trusted person I said I was going to kill, and we each plan a message. First, (2:49 pm) trusted person sends a (BCC) message out to qql, mads, and a confirmed innocent, telling them of our plan. mads replies saying she doubts it’ll work since lopezv rejected ampere. At this point I am pretty sure my plan is working better, though. Then, (3:40 pm) trusted person sends a (BCC) message saying “help sammyluo was acting sketchy when I met him for a pset, so I left early. Not a big deal and not confirmed guilty, but please keep in mind.”
This message was sent to: ltchin, lisakong, Sarah Pratt, Justin, the four people we (or, rather, town boards) thought were most suspicious at the time. He gets a response from lisakong saying “sammyluo suspected you a few days ago so you two should just work things out :) ”.

6) At 4:13 pm on Day 6, I send a message to Alex (confirmed conscript) saying “I just tried to kill trusted person but they seemed suspicious of me and may have had protection, so I stopped. Who should I kill now?” Alex does a good job of not giving me useful information, but here is the exchange:
-Alex: “Who told you to kill this person? What were the orders?” He’s probably worried abergal & co. managed to retain command over some rogues and their next kills.
HOWEVER, this could also mean: “some mafia members got a message warning about you – you need to be careful with your kills and not get exposed. Again, this is a very stretchy inference, but I would say the message marginally increases the probability that one of the four recipients was mafia-aligned.
-Me: “lopezv told me to kill after giving him a list. Did I do something wrong? :O ”
-Alex: “nah, just making sure. Just kill safely and don’t get caught. Tell me before though. Do you have any useful info? Of course you should kill today since I’m getting lynched tonight.
BTW, if mafia contacts you in the future, only believe them if they know the password I just told them, [silly password]”
-Me: “Ok [excuses for being busy and not making kills today]”
-Alex: “It’s alright, don’t push it”

…and that’s the last I’ve heard from mafia.

Now, some comments:
ltchin
There was going to be a large section on ltchin’s suspected guilt here but I suppose that’s been obviated now. Basically it was about: 1) lopezv “stopping” me from killing ltchin, 2) ltchin asking everyone to lynch lopezv (and not Alex) (again, completely reasonable but could be a way to ensure lopezv recruits a rogue without risking two mafia deaths), 3) the four-person-list thing, 4) various instances of being near a kill and then posting stuff indicating she’s scared.

Again, in retrospect all this was probably insufficient evidence; still, it’s good stuff to keep in mind / reveal, I guess.

Other suspects
Alex's response slightly increases the chance that at least one of the list {ltchin, Sarah Pratt, Justin, lisakong} is mafia-aligned. Sarah Pratt is dead desperado, and of the others I think lisakong is the most likely innocent, with Justin close by. ltchin is thus most suspicious. But this is not that much of a factor, just something to keep in mind.

Why mafia did not recruit me
Either:
-They did try, with either lopezv or Alex. Then they've known I was fake all along, so no wonder I didn't get contacted. But this did not seem to be the case. In fact, I suspect they're still not entirely sure before I posted this.
-They were too scared I was fake, for no real reason except that they're being cautious.
-One of the people we told (qql? or the other people we trusted beforehand) leaked the info to them about the plan with fake-killing Jakob. More comments later.

Confirmed innocence
jakob, the “trusted person” above, is innocent.
jingyizz is almost certainly innocent.
vickiew is probably innocent (but with very high uncertainty)
dininno is probably innocent, and was a likely kill for a while


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:12 pm 
I can confirm this story in its entirety. If I sent you a PM saying I thought sammyluo was sketchy, I was trying to bait mafia. I believe he is innocent and this information is true; I helped plot some of it.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:17 pm 
Oh lol I also just found out via mod PM that I got poisoned and am set to die at the end of Day 11. I guess this confirms mafia knew I was up to no evil. Whoops :P

It also probably means mafia is desperate to do stuff, which means they're probably almost all dead.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:23 pm 
Wow. This is awesome.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:29 pm 
This doesn't seem very intelligent. If lopezv wanted to verify you were a rogue, he should have just asked you to try to kill him and disarmed you. I can't believe the mafia would risk one of their lives on any less ironclad evidence.

I got an identical "kill target confirmed" PM from abergal; presumably many others did as well. I told her I was going to kill dukhovni.

At the time, I think I was one of lopezv's primary targets because I was an eyewitness to Alex's sketchiness and one of the people in Random he couldn't kill himself. With lopezv and Alex dead, I doubt I'm still in above-average danger.

This still does not explain whatsoever why you requested to be lynched.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:38 pm 
Also, we would know if someone had tried to recruit you because someone would have died mid-day and been announced as mafia.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:46 pm 
Ok, I admit this was not entirely thought through (well, the part with pm-ing ltchin was actually advised by jakob :P ), but a sketch of the reasoning was:

Cases:
1) ltchin is mafia and knew I wasn't rogue; she decided to expose me to distract attention from herself
2) ltchin is mafia and didn't know I wasn't rogue; she decided to use me to distract attention from herself (to prolong the game maybe?)
3) ltchin is rogue, probably doesn't know about me unless she's been inducted, and decided to expose me to distract attention from herself (since mafia wouldn't ask rogue for a password)
4) ltchin is innocent and is freaking out at my sketchy message

In case 4) the expected utility from ltchin's unknown role is higher than that from my (known, unexciting) role. Thus sacrificing myself is worth it. After she revealed this was not necessarily any longer true, but I guess for consistency... it's hard to explain :P but it was a way I could show an early promise that all this had been done for a reason?
In cases 2) and 3) trying to sacrifice myself would presumably show my loyalty and make it more likely that more information would be shared with me eventually.
In case 1)... well, I should not be sacrificing myself.

I thought cases 2-3-4 combined outweighed case 1). In addition, I think I knew it was unlikely I would actually persuade people to vote for me in time, so the topic had the intended effect of redirecting votes from ltchin to kevinaer (who I found more likely to be guilty).

But yeah, I almost certainly made plenty of mistakes along the way; I was thinking of calling off the whole thing altogether after anpere/ddoss revealed their failed plan, but lopezv's responses seemed promising enough to warrant devoting the rest of my in game life to exploring the potential information.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:47 pm 
And no, I checked thoroughly with mods about recruiting dynamics. Here are the important parts of what I found:
-If a mafia recruits a rogue and that mafia is lynched, the mafia is NOT exposed, but the rogue will still either show up in mafia den or not, so mafia, and not town, will know the results.
-If a mafia recruits a rogue and the rogue is lynched, and was a FAKE rogue, the mafia still dies, and is exposed.
-One recruit per mafia per day.


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PostPosted: Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:51 pm 
dininno wrote:
This doesn't seem very intelligent. If lopezv wanted to verify you were a rogue, he should have just asked you to try to kill him and disarmed you. I can't believe the mafia would risk one of their lives on any less ironclad evidence.


Sorry for triple post, but: at that time they were likely trying to get rid of the experienced and influential townies as quickly as possible, so probably he would rather verify a rogue kill rather than disarm a rogue for three days. And it's not that easy to fake a rogue kill if you report who you're killing beforehand, so I think the verification scheme was solid. Of course, not being a rogue, I had no way to verify myself, so... :P


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 12:41 am 
sammyluo wrote:
Cases:
1) ltchin is mafia and knew I wasn't rogue; she decided to expose me to distract attention from herself
2) ltchin is mafia and didn't know I wasn't rogue; she decided to use me to distract attention from herself (to prolong the game maybe?)
3) ltchin is rogue, probably doesn't know about me unless she's been inducted, and decided to expose me to distract attention from herself (since mafia wouldn't ask rogue for a password)
4) ltchin is innocent and is freaking out at my sketchy message


All I hear from this is "sammyluo was acting like a sketchy mofo and no matter whether or not ltchin is town or scum, it would have been totally consistent for her to freak out at sammy's sketchiness". When I got the PM from sammyluo, I immediately told ermain the contents of the message (she can confirm) who agreed that it was really weird.

I do confirm that I received the PM from jakob and I responded back to him saying that I would post in town if he died. I didn't message out to avoid giving mafia / rogues a tip off.

sammyluo, your intense overthinking confuses me and I'm really not sure if it's at all logically consistent >_<


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 8:26 am 
can confirm my reaction was "wat? waaaaaat."


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PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 9:25 am 
Yeah, it was supposed to be weird, and had you given the correct password my next message would have been something like "Who do I need to kill in Simmons?" This would have allowed someone's confirmed innocence in addition to confirming that you're guilty.

But yeah, I agree in general that I am pretty silly. It's almost like I'm a rookie :O :P

I did, however, at each step execute the action I believed to be optimal for town. You are free to disagree with my choices.


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:24 pm 
sammyluo wrote:
ltchin
There was going to be a large section on ltchin’s suspected guilt here but I suppose that’s been obviated now. Basically it was about: 1) lopezv “stopping” me from killing ltchin, 2) ltchin asking everyone to lynch lopezv (and not Alex) (again, completely reasonable but could be a way to ensure lopezv recruits a rogue without risking two mafia deaths), 3) the four-person-list thing, 4) various instances of being near a kill and then posting stuff indicating she’s scared.

Again, in retrospect all this was probably insufficient evidence; still, it’s good stuff to keep in mind / reveal, I guess.


Wow mixed feelings from being right in retrospect


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PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 11:00 pm 
mixed feelings from being completely wrong in retrospect :/


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