Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:04 pm 
well now what


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:04 pm 
ltchin's day has actually come?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:05 pm 
could lgunder and aradhana post their reasoning?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:19 pm 
sorry, see other thread. i wasn't aware of achester's doing, as i was at an exam, then needed to talk with someone about something. if i'd known i would've advocated for achester's lynching. i'll try not to be so busy so close to day's ending, but sometimes it'll happen. sorry again!


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 10:27 pm 
Yeah I think ltchin is now <5% guilty. On to find other targets?

Someone plz create a mayor to do a count. Or just finish the game somehow :(


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Thu Oct 09, 2014 11:32 pm 
Are you really going to lynch me after all this? I feel like I've acted sufficiently not sketch at all and mafia are clearly shooting themselves in the foot


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:13 am 
I'm sorry.. Why is ltchin < 5%? That just seems wrong for a few reasons:
1. Achester advocated against lynching ltchin
2. Ever since ltchin has been the top of the lynch list, mafia have thrown themselves into the open. This has happened 2 days in a row and could possible indicate that ltchin is the last natural born mafia and the rest are rogues or conscripts trying desperately to keep the game going. (I don't know how likely this is, but it's a nice thought)
3. Justin was by far the biggest supporter of lynching ltchin, yet out of all the people at ET, achester chose to kill him, in front of witnesses instead of anyone else. This was likely done with a normal kill and not anything special since qql's role was commony known (Btw, he had the perfect opportunity to kill me)
4. Ltchin came up positive on an investigation. I know that she could have been framed, but that can only happen once per game, so if we're wrong, then at least we'll know we're right next time it happens.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:31 am 
Yeah it has been really odd that every day since we wanted to lynch ltchin we just happened to get obvious evidence to lynch someone else. qql was also a big supporter of lynching ltchin and she died. Based on my interactions with ltchin, I never thought she was mafia, but there seem to be way too many coincidences here.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 12:38 am 
can rogues make two kills in a day the way achester did though?


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 1:32 am 
No. Assuming achester actually made both of the kills (pretty certain), he was mafia. We should definitely lynch Lilly today unless someone else kamikazes.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 2:49 am 
Ok, so these assumptions don't really hold up to logic.

1. Assume that I'm the last natural born mafia.
2. That means that I was in contact with the rogues (Pesto and vlonge) so they could make saving grace suicide kills for me
3. But if I was in contact with the rogues, then I know that I'm the last natural born mafia and if I die, then the game ends.

Then, why would I make an extremely obvious kill and risk getting lynched by town when I could have the rogues do it for me? Peace and Quiet doesn't kick in until the second day, so I could have waited one more day and then had vlonge make a kill, getting rid of Peace and Quiet and not risk the last mafia die and lose the game.

More likely situations:
1. Assume I'm an innocent Town Cynic. I've been royally screwed by Framing, but mafia has been so fail that they shot themselves in the foot and lost 4 scum in 3 days (kevinaer, michikyo, Pesto, vlonge) which extends my lifespan by 2 days apparently.
2. Assume I'm a rogue that is not in contact with the Mafia or had been Framed by Mafia. If Mafia had framed me in the first place or did not know that I was rogue, why would they lose so many members to keep me off in the chopping block? They thought that I was a townie anyways, so there would be no need for them to "save" me
3. Assume I'm a rogue in contact with the Mafia. A rogue life is less important than a natural born mafia, so who cares if I die? Then why would the mafia chase so much good money (vlonge, Pesto) after a useless, sketchyAF, going-to-die rogue anyways?

I clearly posit that 1) is the most likely scenario. Nothing else really makes sense.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:25 am 
Exactly. Evidence is still there. It doesn't fucking disappear in two days. You still came up definitely positive and we need to lynch you on principle. You an experienced enough player to see the logic in this ltchin--it's just covering our bases. If you are town, don't worry we'll still win. We win in aggregate. I have been noticing the pattern in the kills as well. Please please please lynch ltchin now unless someone else kamikazees (I was unaware of the sequence of events as I was at Santi's place last night--Ellena, Kevin ,Charles, Santi, Ana can verify, else I would have voted for achester).

Adamberg wrote:
I'm sorry.. Why is ltchin < 5%? That just seems wrong for a few reasons:
1. Achester advocated against lynching ltchin
2. Ever since ltchin has been the top of the lynch list, mafia have thrown themselves into the open. This has happened 2 days in a row and could possible indicate that ltchin is the last natural born mafia and the rest are rogues or conscripts trying desperately to keep the game going. (I don't know how likely this is, but it's a nice thought)
3. Justin was by far the biggest supporter of lynching ltchin, yet out of all the people at ET, achester chose to kill him, in front of witnesses instead of anyone else. This was likely done with a normal kill and not anything special since qql's role was commony known (Btw, he had the perfect opportunity to kill me)
4. Ltchin came up positive on an investigation. I know that she could have been framed, but that can only happen once per game, so if we're wrong, then at least we'll know we're right next time it happens.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:31 am 
See my post in the other thread, the 5% was just me being confused about something fmajluf said. I still think ltchin is more likely than anyone else at this point, though I'm not sure by how much.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 8:39 am 
lol you can not be in contact with rogues and still know your the last natural born mafia. Don't all the mafia automatically connect in the start?

Your cynic argument is basically that Mafia are stupid, hence I am a cynic. I really don't think we can rely on Mafia being altogether that stupid without good reason. it's far more likely that you were just caught for a kill.

I mean at this point, given how shady you appear to us, as a townie and a good player, you would have also probably suggested that we try killing you and see what happens. We've made the argument for lynching whoever definitely came up positive before. We must lynch you. You're too damn shady. And town will still win, which is what everyone wants in the end of course :)

ltchin wrote:
Ok, so these assumptions don't really hold up to logic.

More likely situations:
1. Assume I'm an innocent Town Cynic. I've been royally screwed by Framing, but mafia has been so fail that they shot themselves in the foot and lost 4 scum in 3 days (kevinaer, michikyo, Pesto, vlonge) which extends my lifespan by 2 days apparently.
2. Assume I'm a rogue that is not in contact with the Mafia or had been Framed by Mafia. If Mafia had framed me in the first place or did not know that I was rogue, why would they lose so many members to keep me off in the chopping block? They thought that I was a townie anyways, so there would be no need for them to "save" me
3. Assume I'm a rogue in contact with the Mafia. A rogue life is less important than a natural born mafia, so who cares if I die? Then why would the mafia chase so much good money (vlonge, Pesto) after a useless, sketchyAF, going-to-die rogue anyways?

I clearly posit that 1) is the most likely scenario. Nothing else really makes sense.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:33 am 
aradhana wrote:
lol you can not be in contact with rogues and still know your the last natural born mafia. Don't all the mafia automatically connect in the start?


Yes, but the point in my reasoning is that if I were the last natural born mafia, the only thing that really explains Pesto and vlonge's actions would be that they were throwing themselves under the bus in order to prevent me from dying.

Eh, I feel like I've said all of the points that I can, so I guess I'm getting lynched today. Thanks for giving me 3 more days of extra life though! I appreciate it.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 10:42 am 
I think you'll get another day if another mafia fucks up. What happened yesterday is an example of what all townie should be doing: tell people what players you are with so that if you die, town knows who to investigate. Let's keep doing that, and hopefully we can catch another proven mafia today.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:50 pm 
i think we should investigate frevan / cstubbe for oreo's death? she mentioned them a lot in her alibis.


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 4:55 pm 
also I want to interrogate someone


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 Post subject: Re: Discussion Day 11
PostPosted: Fri Oct 10, 2014 9:42 pm 
who should i interrogate


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