First of all, my spreadsheets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 1036477553I stopped updating the first one a few days into game. My activity log is also somewhat out of date.
Lololol, lzahray's kill on Lucy which I thought was bad was actually good. I was pretty sure that if my theory (3 Chinese w/ non-Chinese double agent, 3 non-Chinese w/ Chinese double agent) had predictive power, then it was probably true. And it correctly predicted both that Anpere was the double agent and that Jingyi was the remaining Chinese spy, so I figured it was super likely that ajliu was actually the double agent as well.
I did hear from kmath that Dgrazian told her that Lucy was the double agent, and seemed pretty confident. This made me less sure of my theory, but I didn't trust that info too much, because given that Dgrazian was blackmailed, the Chinese had every incentive to lie to him. I did get Pravina to check to confirm Lucy's goals, and she told me that Lucy DID have Russian goals. Kmath also told me that Pravina told lzahray the same thing, AFTER lzahray and I were no longer aligned, so I figured it was probably true. Oreo also checked ajliu and confirmed that she DIDN'T have Russian goals (I gave this less weight though, because I figured it also might pop up with her zombie goals instead). So I ended game pretty confident that Lucy wasn't the double agent.
Other reasons, other than my "aok is racist" theory that was ALMOST completely accurate, from which I initially concluded that ajliu was the double agent:
1. Lzahray told me she came back after she was killed, which made me think ajliu lied about her role (at this point we didn't know about any other zombies.
2. I was initially most suspicious of jessk, second most suspicious of ajliu, and least suspicious of Lucy. So my gut reaction to becoming not-suspicious of jessk was to become way more suspicious of ajliu.
3. Lzahray said that she got a shovel, but not a blackmail, off of ajliu's body. This made me think that ajliu had given her blackmail to the Chinese to use, especially given that the Chinese seemed to have access to a lot of blackmails.
4. I also knew that Anpere started with a blackmail. So I figured that if item assignment was similar between Chinese and Russians, then if the Russian double agent had a blackmail, then the Chinese double agent ALSO probably had a blackmail. Little did I know that Lucy actually had a blackmail too.
I didn't particularly think ajliu had started the "ksedlar is mafia" plan. I just used that as an excuse for why I wanted her lynched.