Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:00 am 
I received items from god in response to both my 'positivity notes'.

Both seem pro-town but neither appears useful at the moment.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:02 am 
Can we decide who we're lynching before 21:50 today? People with investigations should use them earlier.

Lucy, can you post the investigations you're proxying for in the investigations thread, so they're all in one place?


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 10:07 am 
I think i did (except for DGrazian's sorry)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:49 am 
I received an item that would let me ask gods for a randomly generated list of names. This list was guaranteed to have the same length as the list of living mafia. It was also guaranteed that each mafia would be 3x as likely to appear on the list.

It seemed like a good idea to use this ASAP so we could focus investigations on the people on the list, and so we'd know how many mafia there are for sure. The list I received was:

jordanh
Lucy
Tin


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 11:53 am 
So I think this means:

3 mafia
8 town

mafia 3x as likely to show up on list as town ---> 9/17 probability that a chosen name is Mafia?

(this doesnt account for the fact that multiple names are chosen and it's without replacement, etc. so if anyone wants to do better math, feel free)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:42 pm 
People should verify the math for themselves, but I'm pretty sure that P(on list | townie)=3/17, and P(on list | mafia)=9/17.

The prior odds (given no other information) that someone is mafia is 3/8. With an odds ratio of 3, the odds that someone on the list is mafia is 9/8, so P(mafia | on list)=9/17. (And P(mafia | not on list)=3/17).


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:42 pm 
jamb wrote:
jordanh
Lucy
Tin


Well I guess mafia killing me is not much of a concern now


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 12:49 pm 
Lucy wrote:
Well I guess mafia killing me is not much of a concern now


LOL you're welcome


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 2:13 pm 
I'd say my current sketch list is:
Lucy
jordanh
Tin
Daniel Grazian

(In decreasing order.) All for incredibly obvious reasons.

Given that Lucy was the source of the negative investigations on jordanh->achester and Daniel Grazian->blumberg, maybe we shouldn't trust those investigations so much? If Lucy was not the original source of that information, then the source should find a new proxy so we know to give it more trust.

Also, I think it's reasonable to reveal that my source for brunnerj->achester was Lotta; this makes the information somewhat more trustworthy (up to investigation manipulation by the Mafia).

I'm not sure why it's necessary to have proxies for investigation results, since investigations in this game seem to be strictly non-repeatable and therefore knowing who previously made an investigation doesnt help the Mafia at all, and does help town keep track of info. If anyone has thoughts on this (or other reasons why I shouldn't have revealed this) please tell me so.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:16 pm 
There are now 10 living players. From the perspective of any townie there are 6 other townies / 3 mafia, so the people on the sketch list should have a 9/15 = 60% chance of mafianess and others have 3/15 = 20% chance.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 5:20 pm 
Also, we REALLY NEED TO LYNCH SOMEONE TONIGHT LIKE ACTUALLY IF WE DON'T WE WILL PROBABLY LOSE.

Town needs to start fighting back more aggressively - not just lynches, but tazes and vig kills if we have them. Does anyone have ammo for the townie gun I mentioned on forums yesterday?

Does anyone have suggestions for who these things should be used on?

Honestly rn jordanh seems sketchiest to me (no alibi for any of the kills, investigated negative by someone else sketchy).

IF YOU ARE A TOWNIE AT ET RIGHT NOW GO GET THE ITEMS OFF THE WALLS. THERE AREN'T THAT MANY LEFT AND MAFIA SHOULD NOT GET MORE THAN ONE MORE EACH.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 7:18 pm 
I'm going to leave ET around 8-8:30 --- I need to catch Saferide, be on campus at 9. It's not very likely my vote will change after then. So if you want to persuade me, do it quickly! Currently, I'm voting for Jordan.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 8:38 pm 
Nice discussion we've got here...The other person on my sketch list is Tin. Lucy said earlier (paraphrase) "Speaking as someone on the list Jackie posted, I think that we should lynch one of the people on that list."


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Discussion
PostPosted: Thu Mar 10, 2016 9:39 pm 
From now on a Guardian Angel protects town and townies will survive being lynched. It's important that we lynch every day.


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