What the heck? achester, I'd like to take you up on this bet. How much are you willing to bet?
achester wrote:
-The set of living mafia is {sammyluo, maxmurin, Lucy}. The set of dead mafia is {tsims, aok}.
-Lucy killed lilychen on day 3. Sammyluo claimed to stalk her to establish an alibi. (She's in the group that was investigated guilty.)
-tsims killed jakob on day 3 (possibly with a scheme, or possibly Lucy overheard lilychen revealing as IC and Slaughtered her).
You're claiming that Lucy lied about the tsims investigation to implicate a fellow mafia? Or that mafia framed tsims, a mafia?
Quote:
-One of maxmurin and sammyluo killed isaacg. He was the last Randomite, so they didn't worry about being seen. (They alibi'd each other for that kill.)
So mafia just didn't use their hitman?
Quote:
-Maxmurin killed brunnerj, and investigates negative for it as don. (It's also possible that sammyluo did it with maxmurin as a scout.)
This don claim cancels your probabilistic claim of maxmurin killed isaacg, reducing it to sammyluo killed isaacg.
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-Some combination of the three went on today's rampage. I didn't actually go downstairs to rinse something off (I'm pretty sure), and Lucy made that up hoping to plant a fake memory by which I'd alibi her.
GN investigations are a thing (an infallible one at that) - why don't we ask them?
Quote:
-sammyluo convinced fmajluf7 to trust him, wheedled most of the GCSN's membership out of her (fmajluf7, if you're reading this from the graveyard, I chide you), and then convinced her so much that she let him in. But he didn't actually get any role information he was confident enough of to set a trap/slaughter with until he was let in on day 5.
"wheedled"? I'm offended. Also note the following:
-ajliu revealed to me as Angela on day 3, saying she had forgotten to stalk on days 2 and 3. achester, you are theoretically aware of this. I proxied this to the network.
-andytsai/Alex revealed to me as GNs on day 3 in hopes of getting let into the network. You also know this, theoretically. How would I not have had confident info to set traps/slaughters on?
-Today is day 7. It would only take 1 trap each on days 5,6,7, 1 slaughter each on days 6,7 to make today a 7-kill day anyway, if you were town and I were mafia.
Quote:
-sammyluo, ltchin, and majluf7 collectively convinced each other that I was sketchy. (Not sure whether this started with sammyluo; I find it plausible that ltchin never trusted me and started it, and sammyluo just bandwagoned.)
I asked fmajluf7 which of the network members were for/against having tsims make a vig kill and also which of the network members were against lynching dgrazian. My suspicion started almost entirely from the results of that.
Quote:
-The mafia poisoned sashacf so that Lucy could claim to have been poisoned simultaneously, and neither of them would look any sketchier.
Sure, this is something I would've believed until today. Finally, something reasonable.
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I can spend time finding more holes in this, but in short, I read your post as a pile of hopelessly confused logic.