1. Kills
sammyluo wrote:
The main opportunity will probably be the lead-up to ksedlar's party. Maybe I could wander near random for a bit, kill the first player I see, go away, and come back later. I'm historically bad at killing, so things are likely not to work well, but that's okay I guess.
If this doesn't work, I could always just kill at the party sometime before day end.
2. Not letting mafia (or town town) steamroll
So, jamb and Lucy are almost certainly either OGN or mafia together (or *maybe* IGN but then that leaves the mysterious abundance of Outvestigations unexplained). In the former case, I can trust jamb's mafia count tomorrow, and town is probably doing pretty well. In the latter case, I can't, and mafia are probably doing pretty well.
I can either count the mafia myself right before killing someone publicly, or right after killing someone (possibly privately). The former checks jamb for lying directly, the latter checks some combination of my target's and jamb's mafianess.
Possible universes (likely incomplete rambling):
-jamb reports 0 (outer) mafia.
--> jamb is lying, kill her publicly.
-jamb reports 1 mafia.
--jamb is town: there's 1 mafia left, I need to start killing off town -> can kill jamb (probably privately) Also, in this case achester, aok, brunnerj are all mafia...
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)
-jamb reports 2 mafia.
--jamb is town: tricky situation. killing town makes it pretty mafia-favored, but maybe okay. Lucy also dying is not desirable though. Maybe kill a random different person. I need to get my name on some tasers.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly).
-jamb reports 3 mafia.
--jamb is town: tricky situation. Need to kill mafia, probably anyone other than jamb and Lucy is fine.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)
-jamb reports 4 mafia.
--jamb is town: Lucy is also town, I am town. We need to kill mafia, i.e. basically anyone else who's not line (unless line is mafia-GN, which would be very serendipitous but not surprising. actually, line might just be plain mafia but then so is achester and this case doesn't happen). Also, the only people who could have killed lukesci are jamb, ksedlar, Lucy, unless isaac or line/jordan sneaked in, so in particular ksedlar is bad.
--jamb is mafia: jamb and Lucy are mafia at least, jamb is lying, at least 2 v. 5 -> can kill jamb (can publicly)
In any case, if jamb reports a result, and I kill her and check again, I should expect the same result if she's town, 1 fewer if she's mafia and truthful, and else something weird. This is safe to do unless she reports a high number, in which case I might want to instead just directly check her by recounting.
--------------------
Actually, now that I think about it, having a two-way fake negative is pretty dumb if jamb and Lucy are actually mafia. It's possible that the innocence on Lucy was actual (say, a stalker, or one of aok, achester, lilychen). But why would they actually claim to dgrazian if they were OGNs? Also, 4 OGNs among 9 townies is pretty weird (it means either exactly 1 of each other outer role, or 0 of some outer roles). But why would they fake negative each other if they were IGNs? None of this seems to make sense.
Maybe both mafia, and one-way fake investigation is the most likely answer.