So, about Mendel: A lot of things he has said seem really weird to me, and yet I don't find them *evil* weird. Just weird. Like, I don't feel like mafia Mendel would be this blatant about poorly logicking to throw sketch on me, at least not more so than town him might make the same arguments. I'm sorta reminded of the time I thought dylan was evil because he was making such bad arguments and seemed to be beefing me for not-that-good reasons, and then we got into a townie beef
So I'm just gonna evaluate on the probabilities that he's making stuff up for achester versus achester just got unlucky in my investigations. The universe of possibilities is roughly thus.
(1) I'm evil. Your priors are probably about 1:4, mine are 0 or maybe Pr{I misread my role PM really badly}.
(2) achester made the kill, and Mendel's lying for him. My priors were about 1:4 (see previous), and updated to about 1:1 but am up for probability corrections.
(3) achester made the kill, yyao is framed. Priors about 1:4 achester did it, 1:8 he could frame, 1:64 he picked yyao, 1:2 the investigation returned yyao --> 1:2^12 = negligible
(4) yyao made the kill, achester is framed. Priors about 1:32 yyao did it, 1:8 could frame, 1:8 picked achester, 1:2 investigation --> 1:2^12 = negligible
(5) achester is framed, and Mendel's lying for him. This seems dumb unless you consider that SK might jump in to defend someone they perceive to be mafia, which allows them to signal their evilness to mafia. Still about 1:64 on the frame, idk how to compute probability SK mendel would do this.
(6) achester looks not-guilty for the kill (and got unlucky on my investigations), and Mendel's intentionally supporting him, either because they're mafia buddies, or Mendel is SK as described above.
(7) achester looks not-guilty for the kill, and he and I and Mendel are all innocent and just got into a townie probabeef.
(8) achester looks not-guilty for the kill, and he happens to be evil but Mendel and I are townies.
Did I miss any cases? They're not sorted or anything.
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Appendix: weird things Mendel has said: the compiled list
(A) Comments that make no sense
"SK's might've both hit baddies" -> on Katie's thread where she'd already acknowledged she was considering SKs individually
"Besides like easily two of those being mafia faked" -> on my thread beefing achester, when I'd declared publicly that I made all 3 investigations; he seemed to be trying to cast doubt on me even before getting the result clearing achester
"Also I somewhat suspect Jackie intended to kill me today/tonight." -> on proxy info; the implication being that I posted publicly on forums asking to find him and give him an item so that I could kill him? That would be a really bad kill plan.
(B) bad logic
poorly done probability in the "I am probabilistically beefing achester" thread, as Katie pointed out
"Jackie is easily SK in contact, which explains only 1 kill today." for no apparent reason other than that I *could* be in contact? it seems more like this was discussion of a possible universe that fit the facts rather than a probable universe
"If my result is true, which I claim it is, Jackie is baddd." -> how did we jump from having a probabilistic beef to an actual one?