Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:02 pm 
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There have been some accusations floating around on the forum already, but we might as well put them here so people can figure out who to lynch.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:07 pm 

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I claim Jackie is sketch. I don't think "if I was sketch I wouldn't do something sketch" is enough a reason not to Lynch.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:21 pm 
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Yet again confused by chiller... I thought I said (paraphrased to match his) "regardless of whether I'm sketch, I'd do something sketch"

Still don't know whether to think he's evil or just weirdly obsessed with lynching me.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:33 pm 
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So here are my thoughts (basically updated priors copied/pasted from earlier today with new data from the kill and investigations):

Priors from earlier today:
1) jamb, for pushing for the lynch on m2w and today claiming 3 investigation results on achester, before he was cleared by Chiller. This seems like a pretty obvious/risky mafia move, but it's possible jamb was counting on getting lynched late-game just for being alive, and wanted to take out a few townies/sow confusion first.
2, 3) I'm pretty convinced that achester/Chiller/lukesci are innocent now since it would be an insanely risky move for mafia to out *two* players to clear achester. That being said, if one of them turns up as mafia, I would potentially be very suspicious of the other two.
4) Julian/anyone else who was roleblocked day 1. Since there was only one kill day 1, anyone who was roleblocked might have been a SK unable to make their kill. We did not see multiple kills today so this evidence becomes weaker. Ie: no roleblocked SKs appeared to have killed today either, so there is likely another reason why they didn't kill day 1. Probably this involves SK/mafia hitting each other (removing a kill) and/or a new SK that is having trouble finding a way to kill cleanly.

Newly sketchy:
5) ET people or people affiliated with/otherwise know how to get to ET. These people are more likely to have committed today's kill. People on this list who don't have alibis are (mostly copying jamb's list and adding some people who I think could probably get to ET): julian, mayars, jamb, obitosigma, me, ritagram, rusch, sammyluo, maxmurin. Of these people, obitosigma, me, and maxmurin have not yet been cleared by investigations.
6) Katie's "sketch list" when she died: jamb, sammyluo, maxmurin. People on this list might have found out ksedlar was sketched out by them, and killed her before she could do anything with that knowledge.

Based on this information, unless new information comes forward I would probably suggest lynching jamb as she fulfills sketch criteria
1, 5, and 6 (she was sketchy going into today for lynching m2w and her investigations on achester, she also lives at ET and could hence easily know how to sneak in and kill ksedlar, and she was on ksedlar's list of potentially sketchy people). Unless there is a very good reason not to, I suggest achester come forward with his half a bit of information so we can see if it is enough of an update to not lynch jamb.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 6:54 pm 
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To be clear, achester won't be sharing that half bit of information; I'm not strongly averse to dying and I am averse to it being shared. Same for my 1.2x update on him. I don't see why it'd be relevant what it is, given a probability evaluation on it?

Pasting from chat where I was talking about having started a lynch mob (which I agree is sketchy):
specifically, I suggested to people on floorpi that we should propose someone, and see if someone came out to defend them with an investigation, because that happened a lot last game and I thought we could likely catch a fake investigator this way; Max and Sammy agreed and Max said something about this being his first townie plot; and I was the one who claimed credit for having started it.

Metagame-wise, I'm really proud that I've condensed town-me's sketchiness and mafia-me's sketchiness to the level where I can get lynched as a townie. This is very good for being unreadable in future games.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:00 pm 
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Location: Max Murin, floorpi
I've realized that for whatever reason, my gut is telling me that jamb is nonsketch, so interpret this post noting that bias.

I confirm what jamb says above about plotting on floorpi.

1) Since I was involved in that lynch mob, I can't give helpful commentary on other people.

For 2/3), there's a universe in which jamb rolls three investigations against the same mafia member by chance, and one of chiller/lukesci makes a faked investigation protecting achester to avoid him from being killed by bad luck. Chiller seems to be reacting pretty viscerally against the accusations of achester, which sketches me out a bit. Of course, this still depends on jamb being nonmaf.

For 4), if an SK meets a mafia, does that count as their kill for the day? Do they get to kill the next day? If there are no more kills today and SKs can't make kills after connecting with the mafia, I think that makes roleblocked people less likely to have been SK, so we should probably wait on making that judgement.

As for 6), I agree that people that ksedlar thought were sketchy are probably sketchy, but how would they have found out? If they did, doesn't that mean that whoever had the sketch list is sketchy for telling the list to sketchy people? ksedlar dying today seems like a reasonable kill for the mafia, regardless of the list.

If we lynch jamb today, should we shovel? Actually, that might not be possible if jamb has all the shovels, but I think it gives us a good amount of info.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:02 pm 
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oh yeah I have shovels

uh, I can give to someone if you don't like random redistribution?

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:23 pm 

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For me it's mostly between jamb and mayars (see Casey's recent post) today


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:54 pm 
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I don't think the mayars thing was actually that sketch, and continue to read her as probably town.

Guys, who should *I* vote for? Might just be lazy and not resubmit (submitted achester yesterday), but I can set up a tiebreak if y'all want.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 7:59 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:34 pm
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Is the consensus to lynch jamb?

Random distribution is definitely better than giving them to people, since it's random.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:00 pm 

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Er, I guess maybe you could give your shovels to someone who has a shovel, to minimize number of distinct items on a person for pickpocket reasons.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:06 pm 
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I think jamb is sketch not for the silly beef with achester thing, but the m2w lynch. Also being on ksedlar's sketch list is a point against her. ksedlar's sketch lists are usually pretty good at converging on mafia.

Then again, she is known for as a townie getting into dumb townie beefs, such as the one with achester she got into. I think its reasonable to lynch her since we don't have any obvious targets.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:05 pm 
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Agree with Josh's first paragraph, and a lynch on Jackie is better than a split lynch, I guess...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:12 pm 
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Actually, I'd like to lynch someone with no alibi or investigation --- there are so few of them, I think our odds are better there than Jackie. I propose that Python pick this, since Katie trusted him.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:22 pm 
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It looks like Yannick, Laberca, python, boof are the only people without any reasonable alibis for either kill (and I read boof as very innocent). I'm happy with lynching Yannick, laberca, or python


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:24 pm 
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Python is convincing me that the evidence against Jackie is better than being on the no-alibi list (about 1/2 chance of Jackie bad vs about 1/4 chance of a no-alibi person being bad). I'm encouraging him to declare something by 22:30, and I encourage others to listen to him.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:31 pm 
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whoa, 1/2 is huge. I would really like to hear his reasoning on that. I thought I was actually slightly less sketchy than average, given alibis/priestvestigations, but a good lynch because I'm hosed and not that excited about continuing to play hard.

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:34 pm 
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I think I declare that we lynch jamb today. We don't want another split vote like we had day 1, and jamb is pretty sketchy imo due to all the reasons I mentioned above. To reiterate these reasons are:

1) pushing for lynch on m2w
2) three consecutive investigations against achester
3) being a member of ET and thus knowing how to kill ksedlar (this being said, there was a priest who cleared her, however this priest might have been faked)

I would say the probability of jamb being bad is slightly over 50% due to the above factors, and I think that going off the investigations sheet and lynching a random yellow gives us only a ~20% chance of catching mafia (randomly choosing between me, boof, max, laberca, yyao) even assuming no faked investigations. So unless someone comes up with a very substantial (roughly 3:1 update) in favor of jamb being town, I would say we lynch.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:34 pm 
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I'll vote for whoever you guys decide, I'm slightly leaning towards jamb but not sure really.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:39 pm 
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laberca wrote:
but not sure really.
really?

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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:39 pm 
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I'm generally in favor of trusting python, qua person Katie trusted, even though I don't think he's infallible.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:42 pm 
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(I am tuning game out for rest of night, unless poked in person)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:43 pm 
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jamb wrote:
laberca wrote:
but not sure really.
really?


hmm no actually i would say i'm pretty sure now thanks


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 Post subject: Re: Day 2 Execution?
PostPosted: Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:47 pm 
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To get my 50% figure, I used the following updates:

- base probability of jamb being bad (#bad/#players) is 6/23, let's round to 1/4 probability of jamb being bad
- probability(jamb being bad | jamb found 3 investigations against achester) = P(3 investigations | jamb bad) P(jamb bad) / P(3 investigations) = 1/2 * 1/4 / (1/4) = 1/2. This is also subjective but I think it is quite reasonable (P=1/2) for mafia jamb to get three split investigations and use them all against a single townie who she claims is sketchy. This accomplishes either getting the townie lynched, or at the very least forcing town to waste all its splitter investigations to defuse jamb's claim. The probability of jamb actually getting these investigations is 1/4 (the first investigation has someone guilty and then the next two have to match).
- extra sketchiness for being on ksedlar's sketch list, being a member of ET (and thus able to kill ksedlar), and pushing for a lynch of m2w on day 1.

So net probability of jamb being bad is roughly half plus epsilon based on these calculations. It's not a certainty but seems like a good lynch imo.


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