Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:01 pm 
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Here are my thoughts; feel free to have others (and post them)!

Pretty sketchy for today's kill:
joachim
julian
laberca
yyao1

Especially the latter two, who don't have good alibis or investigations for the first two kills.

Why you're not on this list: I know that I didn't do it, I psychologically trust achester and python, I think Dylan probably didn't do it from seeing him, the people in random alibi each other, and rusch posted the kill early (which probably allowed the Random alibis to be useful --- 30 minutes later it'd've been too late).
Of these reasons, the most questionable are probably my psychread and my alibi of dylan. And obviously you shouldn't trust my evaluation of whether I did it.

I claim this is without question: if I'm town (and so there are four living mafia), and we lynch a townie tonight, town's chances of winning are extremely low. Since I know I'm town, I know that we gotta get this right.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:04 pm 
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Oops, we sniped eachother. Let's use this thread. I think Julian is the best pick: he's on both our lists. But we'll have to wait for a response from him.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:06 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:34 pm
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We should include Luke in this list.

Consider the following argument, which I'm not sure I'm convinced by: If Luke is town, there are 4 mafia and 8 townies, and we don't have many great leads as to who the mafia are. This sounds pretty hopeless. So we should focus our energy on the possibility that Luke isn't town, where our actions are more likely to swing the game. So we should lynch Luke.

The intersection of Luke's and laberca's lists is Julian, Joachim, and maybe Luke.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:07 pm 
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I also agree that you are probably town and if we lynch a townie tonight we're fucked


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:11 pm 

Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2017 3:40 pm
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--Dylan

If Luke is town, Julian (or whoever else is sketchy for the recent kill) is our best move. And lynching Luke is a really bad move.

If Luke isn't town, we can lynch Luke tomorrow, and win the game we mostly already won.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:13 pm 
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Agreed, I think that, while luke is somewhat sketchy, he is definitely a bad pick for tonight.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:15 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 27, 2015 4:34 pm
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Yeah, I agree that argument isn't that strong. We probably have a good chance of swinging the game in the luke-is-good universe, because 4v8 isn't totally hopeless.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:19 pm 
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So my thoughts on luke being town are as follows:
Prior to the mafia counter reveal I thought there was an 80% chance of there being three or fewer mafia (I thought 50% chance jamb was mafia / 50% chance she was town and planted; 60% chance of boof being mafia due to confirmed townie ixa thinking she saw boof). However I also had a fairly innocent psychread on luke going into this so my priors were him at 80% town.

So the probability of lukesci being mafia now is:

P(lukesci mafia | lukesci saw 4 mafias) = P(lukesci mafia) * P(lukesci saw 4 mafias | lukesci mafia) / P(lukesci saw 4 mafias)

I'm just guessing here but I think P(lukesci saw 4 mafias | lukesci mafia) is basically the probability that luke wants town to think there are 4 mafia. This is hard to guess but might be because he wanted us to think jamb was town and listen to what she said? I'd estimate it at 1/3. So then

P(lukesci mafia | saw 4 mafia) = 1/5 * 1/3 / (1/5) = 1/3

So I think lukesci is somewhat sketchy but probably not worth tonight's lynch.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:30 pm 
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I strongly object to lynching joachim if the only reason is inactivity. I think it wastes a lynch on a random shot and is dangerous if he's town, since there would be a higher ratio of mafia to town.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:38 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:47 pm
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I agree that luke and joachim are probably bad lynches today. My shortlist:

chiller
yyao1
rusch
laberca

In no particular order for now. More later.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 6:43 pm 
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I object to lynching chiller tonight.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:31 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:47 pm
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lukesci wrote:
I object to lynching chiller tonight.

why?


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:34 pm 
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I think he's town. My reasons are secret, but I told them to python.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:36 pm 
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So, laberca or yyao1 are my two top picks now.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:37 pm 
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If we've not agreed on someone by 21:00, I'll start really obnoxiously bugging for that to occur.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:37 pm 
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#NoSplitLynches


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:47 pm 
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With respect to luke's 4-mafia claim, I find it pretty believable, which makes me trusting him more. In particular, a mafia would have probably claimed 2 or 3 since that is more consistent with what town believes to be true. I don't know what the general meta for mafia claims is, but over-claiming seems less optimal than under-claiming to me.

_________________
I'm a sketchball!


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:49 pm 

Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 12:47 pm
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yyao1 wrote:
With respect to luke's 4-mafia claim, I find it pretty believable, which makes me trusting him more. In particular, a mafia would have probably claimed 2 or 3 since that is more consistent with what town believes to be true. I don't know what the general meta for mafia claims is, but over-claiming seems less optimal than under-claiming to me.
Yes I really don't know what luke would stand to gain by lying when he has only one or two other buddies...

lukesci wrote:
I think he's town. My reasons are secret, but I told them to python.
Err, I guess it's probably in my best interests to trust this then? Oh well.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:53 pm 
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I'm willing to role claim to someone you all trust if you want. Not sure how else I can show my innocence.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 7:58 pm 
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The person I trust most is python. I don't think there's really a way to objectively determine who you should roleclaim to, other than not letting you yourself pick. So python is probably as good as anyone?


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:01 pm 
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In fact, I support joachim and yyao1 also roleclaiming to python.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:01 pm 
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I'll role claim to python


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:24 pm 
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Location: Clam, Random Hall
I advocate for lynching yyao.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:29 pm 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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I think joachim is the best person to lynch. Breaking into three cases:

1. lukesci is town and joachim is mafia. (I think this is the most likely: lukesci seems town, and joachim became active right when I posted calling him the sketchiest person in game. (I supposed this is adequately explained by my poking him to trade items, actually?) His alibis have improved only from nonexistent to not vouched for by any players. Seeming inactive is a great way to avoid suspicion.) In that case, great, lynch joachim.

2. lukesci is town and joachim is town. Then there are currently 5 potential votes for joachim (4 mafia + joachim) and 7 votes from other townies, so we probably need to reduce the potential votes from joachim by one with every lynch. So in this case, it'd be better to lynch a mafia than joachim, but we'd have to be more sure that our lynch target is actually mafia than that joachim won't miss another vote. (Joachim, if you're actually a townie feeling excluded, sorry! We should figure out how to fix that when it doesn't sound like a way for you to try to avoid getting lynched.)

3. lukesci is mafia. In that case, why would he report 4 mafia instead of keeping his head down as one of the most trusted people? The only reason I can think of is that he needed to throw some chaos into the game. Before this chaos, joachim was looking most likely to be lynched, so lukesci'd've had to have been trying to save joachim, and joachim is an even better lynch target than lukesci.

Anyway, lynching anyone other than joachim seems to be betting all of the following:
-Lukesci is town,
-Joachim is town,
-Joachim will manage to be active enough to vote for someone else and not for himself when it matters (possibly multiple times).

(It's more important for the lynch vote to be unanimous than anything else, since the mafia clearly have the power to win the lynch vote if even town is divided, so I'd go along with someone else if necessary. Also, note that I've been very wrong about what was going on in a crazy endgame scenario before, and the two best townies just ignored me and won, so maybe I should reduce my confidence levels.)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 8:45 pm 
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Ok so laberca's roleclaim appears to check out. She could obviously have faked this as mafia, but given her willingness to roleclaim and the innocent investigation on her, I think we probably don't lynch her today.

I am currently waiting on yyao1 to answer some questions, and will wait to make a decision on lynch targets until these questions are answered. I think joachim sounds like a good target for now by achester's arguments, but I am also sketched out by yyao1 due to bad investigations on both the pravinas kill and today's kill on natalyat.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:06 pm 
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I'm going to bring up that last game there was advocation to lynch joachim because he only seemed active when vito (?) poked him, and he ended up being town. Again, not saying I think he is town, but I am seriously opposed to lynching him for any reason related to inactivity.

I, personally, advocate for lynching yyao1. I've built up a sketch intuition towards him which is mostly built off of small, probably insignificant reasons, not all of which I remember and not all (if any) of which are strong. (I was thinking of posting this a couple of days ago, but I'm still wary when it comes to directly accusing someone.

1. Three pair investigations that didn't go his way for pravinas and two for natalyat (not sure how to feel about trusting pair investigations, though)
2. His decision to shovel before items (admittedly, he asked and waited until someone (rusch) approved)
3. His lack of player-alibis (though to be fair, I have pretty shitty alibis up through day 3)
4. His paranoia posting of ritagram and sammyluo's possible deaths (not sure if this makes at all sense as a reason except that maybe it would make him seem more town? also unsure if anything related to sammyluo being mafia affects this reasoning?)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:10 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
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achester wrote:
joachim became active right when I posted calling him the sketchiest person in game. (I supposed this is adequately explained by my poking him to trade items, actually?)

Correct, I got poked by the email saying "you got a private message". Then I read the rest. Despite your pretended fears of me being mafia, you were pretty easy with meeting me for the item exchange... Seemed pretty sure I wouldn't attempt to kill you?

achester wrote:
His alibis have improved only from nonexistent to not vouched for by any players.

My fault that I neither live in ET nor Random nor do many CS courses...

achester wrote:
it'd be better to lynch a mafia than joachim

I agree to this one ;)

achester wrote:
Joachim, if you're actually a townie feeling excluded, sorry! We should figure out how to fix that when it doesn't sound like a way for you to try to avoid getting lynched.

We had the same argument in the last game, but I guess you missed it because you didn't play that round? Anyways: I hope I get to be mafia next round, then I'd have a fixed smaller set of people to engage with. ^^

achester wrote:
Anyway, lynching anyone other than joachim seems to be betting all of the following:
-Lukesci is town,
-Joachim is town,
-Joachim will manage to be active enough to vote for someone else and not for himself when it matters (possibly multiple times).[\quote]
What? You want to kill a mafia, not a townie. Lynching anyone other than me increases your chance of killing a mafia, you're just gonna waste another lynch.

achester wrote:
Also, note that I've been very wrong about what was going on in a crazy endgame scenario before, and the two best townies just ignored me and won, so maybe I should reduce my confidence levels.

You should indeed.

Anyways, for everyone else: Keep in mind who is actively pushing for what here...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:12 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
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achester wrote:
Anyway, lynching anyone other than joachim seems to be betting all of the following:
-Lukesci is town,
-Joachim is town,
-Joachim will manage to be active enough to vote for someone else and not for himself when it matters (possibly multiple times).

What? You want to kill a mafia, not a townie. Lynching anyone other than me increases your chance of killing a mafia, you're just gonna waste another lynch.

achester wrote:
Also, note that I've been very wrong about what was going on in a crazy endgame scenario before, and the two best townies just ignored me and won, so maybe I should reduce my confidence levels.
[/quote]
You should indeed.

Anyways, for everyone else: Keep in mind who is actively pushing for what here...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:15 pm 
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Quote:
Despite your pretended fears of me being mafia, you were pretty easy with meeting me for the item exchange... Seemed pretty sure I wouldn't attempt to kill you?

This logic isn't valid. Achester's perfectly happy being killed by you when it's known that he was going to meet you; then you'd be the first suspected for his death and probably lynched. This trades one townie for one mafia, a trade which town is always* happy to accept.

*except in some endgames requiring high-variance play from town


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Lynch
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:17 pm 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
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Was it known to everybody when and where we'd meet? Or what had nailed me down as mafia? Or how did you know where we'd meet? Because I told you the time we would, but not where.


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