Here's where we stand. The game started with six Mafia, plus an additional conscript.
Three Mafia can clearly be accounted for:
1) Rob
2) jwu
3) ebdavis
Daniel's investigator, who is , got positives on all of them. Only a Frame and Innocent could cause one of these to be wrong, and I think it's really unlikely.
There is also at least one Mafia in each of two pairs
4) dbr and Steven Valdez
5) kezi and bowler
The fist is because dbr says Steven PM'ed him, claiming to be investigator, and having gotten a positive investigation of Alex killing Jaysonl. The second is because kezi claimed to have (as Daniel said) incontrovertible proof that bowler is Mafia. There's absolutely no reason for either of these to happen if both players are townies.
So, that leaves at most two Mafia unaccounted for, or at most one mafia if they have the conscription power remaining.
Now, I'd bet that we lynched at least one Mafia among our other nine lynches.
Lydia
Austin
Tencate
wcheang
Caroline
Jacky
Andrew
VivianLee
Jacobian
So, that would mean at most one Mafia unaccounted for. If there were two Mafia in this list, that means that only dbr or bowler remains as Mafia.
We have two proxied investigators who have tried to find jaysonl's killer to no avail. Now, only that kill and the Daniel kill remain open. Manipulate the Press and Frame an Innocent remain possibilities. Multiple people have come out saying they trust Daniel's Investigator, and he has been the one to finger Rob, jwu, and ebdavis. Daniel posted that he no longer trusts the other investigator.
For the jaysonl kill, here's what Daniel posted about investigations:
Daniel wrote:
People confirmed innocent for jaysonl's kill by my investigator:
fluffy
dbr
bowler
dgrazian (thinking frame a townie might have been used.)
Steven
krue
People confirmed innocent for jaysonl's murder by other investigator (who I don't trust at this point.):
krue
benkraft
Jacobian
Alex
The Mafia have used Hire a Hitman. There's a decent chance they used Manipulate the Press on the jaysonl kill, making all the investigations come out negative. I believe they did not Frame an Innocent for the jasyon kill, and really doubt they did it for previous kills, so either they used it on Daniel or they still have it. I think there's a decent chance they used it on the Daniel kill.
It's hard to say whether they conscripted anyone.
I haven't been aware of any reveals or claims of Mad Scientist, Politician (ignoring jacobi), or Ironheart. I hope none of them were lynched. As there have been few kills, I hope most remain. Don't forget that there's an extra one of these or investigator.
I'd expect Mad Scientist to create their monster tonight. Once the Monster is created, we can use the monster as a trusted hub to hold info and coordinate.
Overall, town has a good numbers advantage even under conservative estimates. I believe town is also ahead is power roles remaining versus Mafia powers remaining.