Day 1 thoughts:
Clues:
-RED SEA for 6? Seems a little small given all his geography things, but pretty good.
-BANGLADESH for 10: What on Earth? This seems to hit a bunch of blue True Names really strongly, and even looking at the red True Names, I can't see more than a few that it clues at all. PORT, I guess, because it's coastal (and amusingly, PORT is probably more clued by both RED SEA and TITANIC). SHOE and BELT, because they make clothes there. EMBASSY, because they're a country, although there are a bunch of actual countries that aren't red. In fact, it seems to hit Jackie's INDIA more strongly than it hits anything red. Sad for team unity. Either Python is up to something really tricky and I should be terrified, or he gave a bad clue and I should stop being scared of him and start being terrified of jasonye (since a lot of blue True Names are going to accidentally get hit by green today). Leaning toward the latter.
-Python said in spymaster chat that BANGLADESH was intended to mostly be about the substring BANG. His team isn't seeing that, and I wouldn't either. Anyway, I think red is now the biggest threat because I think green's going to waste most of their shots today, and disproportionately on blue True Names.
Updates to colors for being clued:
-One of the biggest problems I'm having is that jamb (arbitrarily, as far as I can tell) came up with a factor of 1.2 as her update on someone's color if they're clued and this is way too low. Also, there's no explicit dependence on how strong the clue is, but she seems to have settled on a factor of 2 for the six strongest clues, CRASH, DEATH, SINK, SATURN, SHIP, and GIANT (all of which I did in fact know were very strong, and all of which are in fact green), which is even more way too low.
-I'm going to calculate how big such an update should be. I'll start with RED SEA for 6 as an example: jamb found 48 things that fit at all. As a first-order approximation, suppose that all 6 True Names that jasonye intended to clue are included and the remaining 42 are split evenly between red, green, and blue. That's 20 blue words to 14 green or red, so in that case the update for each of the 48 words should be a factor of 20/14 = 1.4.
-Most important correction: some words are stronger-clued than others. Suppose we divide those 48 into the top 6 (like jamb did for TITANIC) and the remaining 42, and suppose (very conservatively) that only 3 of those top 6 are intended True Names and the others are split evenly. Then those top six are 4 blue, 1 red, and 1 green, a 4x update. (Of the remaining 42 words with the same assumptions, 16 would be blue to 13 for each other team, for an update of 1.2x, which does seem pretty reasonable for random not-too-strongly clued words (like the four of lukesci's that jamb sees some connection from to RED SEA).
-The assumption that the remaining words are distributed evenly is too conservative, because the spymasters can look at them, both to avoid other teams' True Names and focus on their targets' false Names over other teams'. (This is why, of jamb's actual top 6 for TITANIC, all six are green: I was paying enough attention to what bystanders I hit.)
-As a sanity check on update strength, consider LUNAR: we went from thinking that sammyluo was 98% blue to less than 10% blue, an update of a factor of at least 450, and that seems about right for that case
-Updating too much or too little for clues is like having a steering wheel that's over- or under-sensitive for a car driven by the spymaster. If it's oversensitive, I can adjust for it by turning the wheel less/cluing more conservatively. If it's undersensitive, I can't control the car. For instance, if today I clued all three of lukesci's True Names as strongly as TITANIC->GIANT, and Jackie assigned all of them her 2x update, but jasonye's clue hit two more words as strongly as RED SEA->FIRE and RED SEA->DWARF, Jackie would still think lukesci had a greater than 50% chance of being blue, left over from that he said he was blue at the start of the game. What would I even do at that point? Clue some of his True Names as strongly as TITANIC->GIANT a second time? (I realize I'm ranting a lot here; I think I'm frustrated because I don't feel in control of the game.)
-You should probably update more based on your own spymaster's clues than other spymasters'. The biggest reason is that the other teams have information on what words have already been shot and who's what color that you don't. For instance, if green is confident that ksedlar is green but blue isn't, Python can safely give clues that seem to hit some of ksedlar's words, since it won't lead green astray but will lead blue astray. (I won't be able to do the same thing cluing jamb's words after today, because green will also know that she's blue.) Also, the other teams might have made requests to their spymasters that you don't know about.
-The most frustrating thing is how so crucial an error seems to be going entirely unnoticed. That random number of 1.2 is getting used in all of Jackie's many updates, and she's relying on those updates in her spreadsheet, so that random number of 1.2 is determining basically all of her color perceptions, but she doesn't even realize how much impact it's having and hasn't sanity-checked or even explained it.
-Possible clue for today: "1.2 for 0".
Team members:
-In the last game, blue did lots of great Codenames work that green leeched off of. I unfortunately didn't talk much before the game about how important I think this was; I think my team is better at Codenames and is in a strong position if it keeps all its Codenames skill for itself. The biggest relief of today was that jamb's only sharing her spreadsheet of what things are clued on green, which is basically costless to share and doesn't let the other teams leech off our work. Well done on operational security, Jackie. This is particularly important because the 1.2 error means her trust is bad.
-Oh, wait; Jackie's actual message to lukesci is "I don't think there's much point giving you my red+blue tabs from the other spreadsheets, since there's still some probability you're not blue, but if you have reason to want them I probably trust you enough to share." No! D:
-Good job jamb posting fairly quickly a reminder to everyone not to claim to aok. Sad that it'll relieve pravinas from organizing green.
-Jackie mistrusts Troy a lot because she has a conspiracy theory that he was trying to get information out of her that would only be useful in combination with information that aok wanted. Between this and trusting lukesci just because he claimed blue at the start of the game, I think she's putting much too much trust in costless things people say over the actual information of spymasters' clues. Actually, this is only a little high; it's mostly just way too high relative to 1.2.
-Jamb's asking for odd/even to indicate whether she's blue. That's be pretty low cost for me to implement, so it's good for them to do something like that. I'd sort of like them to pack a little more into it to include Troy as well; at this point in the game I'd be pretty happy with a factor of 3 or 4 constraint on my clue. Whether jamb is blue is unfortunately one of the least useful bits of information I can give my team right now. Yes, it'll make sure information from all blues passes to me, but jamb trusts lukesci enough that all information from blues is at risk of passing to green; jamb's going to be limited by time spent on game and her time would be much better spent Codenamesing and passing the results on to some other coordinator than coordinating things herself (since the team has several people who can do mafia schemes pretty well, but she knows how I think for Codenames clues best by far); and if she's the coordinator I don't know how I can possibly get her to mistrust lukesci or trust Troy, given that her uncaught "1.2x" error makes it really hardfor me to clue anyone's color to her (but other coordinators are likely to have better color judgments).
Shots:
-It's sad that jamb assigned CRASH to lukesci. If CRASH and SINK were both going to be fired on by actual blues, I could clue TRIP really strongly to finish aok off with almost all of his bystanders unshot. Since not, I don't care about TRIP more than any other True Name.
-HEART's getting shot at.
I knew that was a risk, but hoped it wouldn't be in the top 6; it's the only non-green True Name that's clued at all by TITANIC. The other shots are SATURN (intended bystander), SINK (hit), HEART (hits red), and DEATH or SHIP (known bystanders).
Clues for day 2:
-One possible path for today is to clue lukesci strongly enough that it can't be written off as an accident, and for multiple words. The risk is that if Jackie continues taking her 1.2 literally and is proven blue by the clue's evenness, then she'll still trust lukesci and the clue would be wasted. If her teammates realize and she explains this to them, maybe she'd not only uncover lukesci but realize that 1.2 is a mistake?
-The other possible path for today is to ignore the lukesci situation, let it resolve itself in a few days when he gets in enough espionage/witnessing beefs, and just keep cluing names. In particular, in the last game I thought (incorrectly?) that Daniel Grazian overreacted to our trusting sammyluo and that contributed to his MALFUNCTION stumble.
-I think I'll increase slightly the value of strong clues for lukesci's words and decrease the value of weak ones for today.
-One clue from yesterday seems to do everything I want: BLACKSMITHING. It hits DWARF strongly
-Today's top 9:
9. LIVERS for 6: Unfortunately, dwarves having multiple livers (for extra alcohol consumption) seems to be an OoTS-only thing, and I don't think any of my team would get it. There are too many bystanding living things.
8. METALWORKING for 6: Seems strictly worse than BLACKSMITHING for 6 (I think METAL hits more bystanders than BLACK, WORKING hits more bystanders than SMITHING, and METALWORKING doesn't have any chance of finishing anyone off.)
7. PIGLET for 6: the connections to DWARF and SPIDER aren't strong enough given lukesci's status; awkward that it gets TAIL but not ARM when I have several ways of getting ARM or TAIL that get both.
6. STRONG for 4: gets ARM but not TAIL, same problem as for PIGLET, and at least DWARF is not strong enough if Jackie's calling the shots on lukesci.
5. MORDOR for 4: seems strictly worse than FRODO. Gets PASS stronger, but KNIFE and DWARF weaker, and might hit FIRE, SPOT, and some of the places that Mordor is supposed to be an allegory for (e.g. TURKEY).
4. GANDALF THE WHITE for 6: WHITE hits some bystanders, and a lot of the things this hits are stretches. Also, it might hit LIFE on dylanhen, which is bad since blue doesn't trust him.
3. SHOULDERS for 6: gets the bodyparts well, and other clues don't get them. But hits dylanhen's COLD, which will be much better once he's trusted, and doesn't deal with the lukesci situation, so better to save for another day. Also, it might take some time for jamb (who'll be dictating tomorrow) to trust Troy, and he's the one most likely to get the dancing things.
2. BLACKSMITHING for 8: Should very strongly hit lukesci and maybe even kill him; all three of DWARF (a canonical blacksmith), MINT (turns metal into coins), and SPIDER (black) are clued. TRAIN is surprisingly hard to get, and this might. PENGUIN (part black), KNIFE, and RING are stretches. Might hit BELT and SHOE, but hitting red names is a lot less scary given that green seems to be losing, and having my team think that Daniel Grazian's green will at least dispel their thoughts that he's blue. Hits BAR (and DEATH, if they haven't already shot it), which are wasted shots since aok's close to death. Might hit AGENT, NEEDLE, DRAGON, FIRE, and LIGHT.
1. FRODO for 6: Might get TRIP and thereby kill aok. Should pretty strongly hit lukesci, with DWARF and SPIDER. PASS (that is, Cirith Ungol) and KNIFE (that is, Sting) are stretches. Absolutely gets RING, which might shift green's coordination a bit back to pravinas. Might hit EAGLE and SHOE, but hitting red names is a lot less scary given that green seems to be losing. Might hit KING (Return of the), but hopefully aok'll die before they get to that point on their queue. Might hit CLOAK, DRAGON, and LEPRECHAUN.
Last-minute thoughts:
-Ah, lukesci shooting jamb is another way she could stop trusting him. Clever of lukesci to put that off to the last minute so I couldn't account for it, although I don't think it'd've changed my clue.
-corwind shot at CRASH without being in contact with anyone. That's the name that lukesci was supposed to shoot, so great, it got shot. But the rest of blue doesn't know that, so they might shoot it again. Also, he espionaged INDIA, which is indeed damaged, which might keep him from trusting jamb. Hope he at least gets into contact with someone.
-dylanhen missed his action, but is at least playing.