Day 1 thoughts:
Ack; today was a bad day. Win probabilities 1:1 red, 1:1 green, 1:2 blue.
Late clue posting:
-aok thought that day rollover was at 23:00, and said he hadn't even started thinking about his clue at 22:00. (He'd had plenty of time to (e.g. he spent the previous several hours playing Factorio with me), and it was posted in forums and in the rules.) The maximally rules-lawyery response would be for him to not give a clue, but that'd ruin the game, so we gave him until at most 23:00.
-I envy how great a clue he game up with in 15 minutes. I was putting a lot less effort into this game than the last one (I'm sort of burned out already, not a good sign), but still put in ~3 hours and made a 38x27 grid of judgments.
-Both other spymasters said they were originally looking for clues for the wrong team. Ouch! They've both played twice before, so they know the color cycle, and it's in the rules.
-I got to see Daniel Grazian's clue for green (fortunately, he posted it prematurely, so I accidentally saw it and could warn him he was cluing the wrong color). It was TREASURE for 9. I'd been thinking of money-related clues, planning to wait for tomorrow because they all hit DIAMOND on ksedlar strongly. TREASURE's a bit better than those because it gets CHEST better. I ended up not going with them (see the section "Clue number: 1, 4, or 12?"), but now think I should just have stuck with the big-clue-with-lots-of-bystanders approach. As it turns out, DIAMOND wasn't even a problem because ksedlar's BOND was clued so strongly that she's basically proven red; also, making her less trusted'd've been good, not bad.
-I thought cluing TOWER was going to be fine because it would give jamb a chance to maybe infiltrate green, which she'd been musing out loud about doing. Since game started and color info went out with the clues unposted (which explicitly wasn't supposed to happen), she claimed blue before seeing that she'd've had an opportunity to claim green, so aok's delay actually cost me something. I did agree to giving him some extra time, so I won't do anything about it, but it's really annoying that aok's being late cost my team and not his.
PALANTÍR vs PALANTIR, the clue:
-There wasn't consensus in spymaster chat over whether to allow the accent; aok thought it shouldn't be allowed; Daniel Grazian thought it should be. (Arguments for: that's the Wikipedia page title; it's a single word cluing things semantically. Arguments against: English removes accents when it imports words unless proven otherwise; the "Wikipedia page titles are allowed" rule only applies to proper nouns, which PALANTÍR isn't.) We brought in lukesci, who ruled in favor of PALANTÍR.
-My reason for wanting the accent was to get people to look at the LoTR thing instead of the company; there were way too many bystanders for the company, so I'dn't've even given the clue PALANTIR. It'd actually have been better for me if PALANTÍR had been forbidden, since it turned out to be a mistake.
-jamb: "so in case you are wondering I noticed the accent
I am assuming that means "look at the LOTR thing not the company"
but I don't particularly believe anyone in this room is blue, so I'm going to try to keep them on that track
Jackie • Now
"
Phew! Yes, I was wondering; yes, that's correctly interpreted, and you even guessed correctly that no one in the room is blue.
-jamb, later: *is confused why there are only about 8 words she thinks fit PALANTÍR at all, since she's used to much bigger-numbered clues that hit many more things*
*decides to include the company, and promptly adds about 20 more bystanders* [1] D:
-My actual thoughts on PALANTIR the company were just:
(1) It makes jamb look a bit bluer, since she's going to work there and so would be able to interpret the clue (and she pointed this out once in discussion),
(2) The clue is for a small enough number that my team should hopefully hit the LoTR things and then, when they're done, take the company things as anticlued (which is what a clue for a small number would usually do).
PALANTÍR vs PALANTIR, the opsec:
-jamb is trying to avoid spreading the realization that there's an accent in the clue. I think this is a mistake. The total cost of the mistake is really small, but I did a bunch of calculations on it for fun.
-An estimate of how valuable it is to blue to spread that realization: Let ε<1 be the probability that each player doesn't realize that there's an accent. (I'd guess ε is about 0.1; it seems like jamb's estimate is higher.) (Yes, it's probably different for different players, but close enough.) There is, and Jackie correctly believes there is, at least one blue person who hasn't contacted her, who therefore has an ε chance of wasting all their shots, for an expected value of +4ε if jamb posted on the forum "There's an accent there, which means LoTR; pay attention to it". For the other teams, what's at stake is slightly more information about colors from a spymaster who isn't theirs.
--As an upper bound on the usefulness of that realization to another team, suppose that another person, with their 4 expected shots, uses that realization to move all 4 of them from the wrong color to the right color. Their shooting at a word of the wrong color is worth at most .125 to us (a 1/2 chance that the shots are against green times a 1/4 chance that an unclued shot hits); their shooting at words of the right team that were weakly-enough clued is similarly worth -.125 to us, for a total swing of 1 shot's worth. There are 6 people on other teams, so that's a hard upper bound of 6ε in cost of posting it publicly.
--People on other teams are either singletons (who haven't contacted their team) or not. People on other teams who aren't singletons have at most an ε^2 probability of not noticing the accent, which I'll round off to 0. If each other team is doing about as well as contacting each other as blue is, that'd be two singletons on other teams, for a cost upper bound of 2ε to just posting it publicly. That's already less than the 4ε gain, so it's definitely correct to post it publicly.
--Singletons have the full ε probability of not noticing the accent, but they're also likely to be people so loosely involved in the game that they'dn't solve the other teams' clues just to get information about colors. I won't assign a value to this to maintain the upper-bound property, but that makes the cost even less.
-As an alternate observation of how valuable "slightly more information about colors from a spymaster who isn't theirs" is, although jamb has come up with answers to the other spymasters' clues as the first step in using that information, she hasn't even used that information for herself yet; it looks like my teams shot's for today are being determined entirely by my clue and not the other spymasters'. She'll get around to building a proper Bayesian update system to use that information eventually [edit: she built it as I was writing this
![Smile :)](./images/smilies/icon_smile.gif)
], but if even she (who, along with ksedlar, is one of the most likely people in game to use that information) hasn't even used it yet for today's shots, that information can't be very valuable.
-jamb had a conversation with brunnerj in which brunnerj listed RING as a weak fit for the clue and jamb asked why it was on his list at all (pretending not to know about the accent, because she's fairly confident he's nonblue). I'll be curious to hear, after the game, whether he
(a) didn't see the accent,
(b) saw the accent, but believes Jackie didn't, or
(c) saw the accent, doesn't believe that Jackie did (and so probably learned that Jackie doesn't believe his claim).
((d), that brunnerj is blue, is a possibility I can rule out but Jackie only thinks is very unlikely).
I bet 1:2:4 (a):(b):(c). Jackie has only explicitly mentioned (a), (b), and (d); I don't know whether she thought of (c).
Anyway, the potential gains for hiding the accent from him were tiny (brunnerj, at least, is surely in contact with someone from his team, so even if he managed not to see it, they probably did); if he is blue the cost of hiding it is significant (as above); and, as the only cost I think was actually relevant (other than the time spent), Jackie probably proved to brunnerj that she didn't believe his claim.
Clue number: 1, 4, or 12?
-Let DAC[n] be a DAC game in which each team has n shots per day. LAC went from DAC[9] to DAC[3] or so; DAC1 was DAC[6]; DAC2 is roughly DAC[12]. In DAC[1], all that matters is cluing very precisely; a shot against a random word is wasted. In DAC[\infty], all that matters is cluing who the other team is; once you have that, you can shoot random words until they're dead. DAC[6] is pretty similar to DAC[1] in that my team's shots can't keep up with all the True Names I could clue; I could give precise enough clues that my team uses most of the shots they have available on True Names. I claim that DAC[12] is pretty similar to DAC[\infty] in that my clues can't keep up with my team's shots, so there's substantial value in at least making sure the extra shots hit the right color (0.25 True Names for a random shot on the right color vs -0.125 for a random shot on the wrong color).
-A clue for 1 has an expected value of 1+11*.25 = 3.75 True Names hit: the one clued word is definitely hit, and the other 11 shots are random.
-A clue for slightly more than 1 gains .75 per extra True Name it hits (e.g. a precise clue for 4 is worth 6), but risks hitting people on the wrong teams and causing lots of extra shots to go to waste.
-A clue for a number like 12 probably hits enough bystanders that any extra shots are wasted (on possibly even the wrong color). If it gets 4 correct, it beats a clue for 1; if it gets 6 correct and splits the others evenly (which would be an amazing clue), it beats a precise clue for 4.
-aok seems to have succeeded at the precise-clue-for-4 thing: His team should be able to hit 4 things correctly and 8 names that are at least of the right color.
-I got too greedy. I figured that, as long as at least one True Name (RING) were clued strongly enough, any extra shots my team made would be at least as strong as correct-color bystanders, so I could afford to include a few other True Names. But, as in note [1] above, my team (well, Jackie, the third of my team from whom I've heard something so definitive) doesn't understand why the clue is so small and is just treating it as a clue for infinity, reaching into things like the company which I'd hoped would be anticlued by that the clue number was so small.
-Daniel Grazian went with the large-number strategy. It really hits a lot of bystanders and a lot of his things are stretches, but it hits enough things correctly to be a pretty good clue anyway. I think he and aok clued pretty similarly well, and I'm about half a clue-day behind them.
![Sad :(](./images/smilies/icon_sad.gif)
AdamYedidia vs jamb:
-In the last game, jamb was strongly clued as non-blue, but my team decided to trust her for the first day anyway, pending a parity check on her. I think that was risky (she could've wasted the parity check and all their shots), but for some combination of their correctly psychreading jamb and that it ended well, I didn't comment on it.
-In this game, jamb is strongly clued as non-blue. jamb tried to muscle her way into dictating the parity check this game too, but AdamYedidia is the bluest person and knows it and won't go along with psychreads, so that didn't go well: AdamYedidia said " if I may channel the Spirit of Pesto [correctly channeled --Pesto]
if indeed you are blue, you should just always do whatever I, the most trustworthy blue person, say"
Jamb did indeed go along with it, and then they had a mostly reasonable exchange, except:
-AdamYedidia and jamb had basically agreed to use {0, 0 mod 3, 1 mod 3, 2 mod 3} to clue jamb's and corwind's blueness. jamb proposed setting 0 to "Jackie is not blue and corwind is blue", wanting to avoid forcing me into cluing for 0. AdamYedidia didn't like that because he thought that outcome was too likely, and so proposed setting 0 to "Jackie and corwind are both blue", which he thought was least likely. They argued over that for a while; neither of them suggested making 0 "Neither Jackie nor corwind is blue", which seems like an obvious choice (Jackie's just as happy with it because she knows it won't be used; AdamYedidia should be about as happy with it because if neither of them is blue, he'd have trouble counting to three blues).
-Anyway, tomorrow Jackie'll be proven blue, and AdamYedidia will (I'm almost sure) immediately pledge fealty to her as the most trustworthy blue person, so I think the only real harm this causes is that they don't get the "corwind isn't blue" bit (because jamb pointed out (correctly) that if she's proven good by {1 mod 3, 0}, she gets to dictate, and so decreed that both of those just mean "jamb is good" to remove the risk I'd have to clue for 0.
The draft:
-jamb has observed that the partition thing is equivalent (for this number of players) to dividing into groups of 3 and cycling the spymasters' picks within them (that is, that there are only 6 possibilities). She's concerned by that that basically leaves her only 15 possible teams, since she's pretty sure she won't be on a team with ksedlar or brunnerj. That is a pretty low number, but only one bit of information beyond the 28 possible teams she could have a priori.
Color info:
Jackie built a fancy Bayesian color probability updater spreadsheet. It all looks good. It gets the top 3 blues, the top 3 reds, and the top 2 greens correct; the only thing it doesn't have is Python for green, and I'ven't much clued him. Great! Sadly, my team isn't relying on it today for their shots, so some of them are on nongreens, but it should be better tomorrow.
Goals for today:
-Clue for 1 mod 3, to confirm AdamYedidia and jamb to each other.
-Decide how strongly to clue Python and Lucy. Python's the only green I can really try to make seem not green, because jasonye and corwind are more strongly clued and my best clues today are stronger for them. He's also the one I least want green to trust to organize them. Lucy's infiltrating green; my instinct is that that's a bad idea, but I shouldn't get in the way of my players too much. On the other hand, my team did waste a bunch of shots either on or by Lucy today, and I'd like to get them to stop that. Also, green's not at all the team I'm most scared of, so I don't care as much about infiltrating them. I think I'll ignore Lucy's words (too much to think about) except maybe her True Names, and treat all green True Names as equal (which likely means that Python won't be strongly clued today).
-Treat basically any connection as strong enough to include in a clue, since my team'll have gajillions of shots available, and this'll be their first real queue-forming day.
Clues:
The top three for today are:
3. CUIRASSIER for 10 (SOLDIER because they're soldiers, CHEST because the armor they're named after is chest armor, SUIT because they're named after their suits of armor, LIMOUSINE because it's a French word for mostly-French soldiers and Limousine's a state in France (and Jackie's heard that this is my first association for "Limousine"), DRAFT because soldiers are drafted, POLICE because they're people who use force sometimes, NURSE because they need medical attention after a battle, KETCHUP because they're cavalry who catch up to their enemies, GRASS because they charge across grass, and GOLD because the cuirasses might be made of it in a game.)
2. TSO'S for 16 (SOLDIER because generals command them, CHEST because it gives you a heart attack or is made of chicken chests, PIE because it's a food, KETCHUP because it's a food, NUT because it's a food, FISH because it's a food, DRAFT because generals draft people, POUND because generals pound their enemies or you gain pounds by eating it, NURSE because people need medical attention after generals have commanded them in battle, SUIT because the soldiers generals command wear suits of armor, PLATYPUS because it's a fleshy creature from the same hemisphere, KID because that chicken's popular with kids, MATCH because it's fried food, TORCH because it's fried food, POLICE as another user of force, and STRING because string cheese is a food). As a bonus, hits CHINA for extra greenness on corwind.
1. MIDWICKET for 10 (CENTER because mid, BAT because the players use them, GRASS on which cricket's played, MATCH as an instance of cricket, PLATYPUS via Australia where cricket's played, DRAFT because players are drafted for cricket, KETCHUP because they catch balls, POUND as the currency where midwickets were invented, SUIT because the players wear protection, and CHEST as a person's midsection). As a bonus, gets CRICKET, proving jasonye green.