Live Action Mafia

I am a town vigilante, and killed jakob in the tvl upon becoming sufficiently confident that he killed brunnerj. He let me call the person who he had lunch with on his phone, and as we were talking, it became apparent that the friend could not provide details about the lunch. jakob started to run away, so I killed him

meghal was aware that jakob and I were talking in the tvl at the time, and I told her that I killed him

Can verify this exchange happened. Or at least Jakob told me right before talking to Julian that he was talking to Julian and if he died then it was Julian. Sounds decently believable, but also to trust Julian we have to believe that Jakob didn’t him first, and That Julian genuinely believed that killing Jakob was as vig was urgent enough to let him not get lynched. Maybe we kill Julian just to be safe, idk

Like, lynching me is pretty similar to the alternative, which was letting jakob run off and go kill someone, and then we kill jakob. That wouldn't be the end of the world. But I mean I'd rather we didn't go that route because we don't need to. I am pretty confident that my choice was correct even if it does cause me to get lynched

also note: it was common knowledge to all three of us that meghal was aware we were talking about mafia in the tvl

mods have confirmed to me that he was mafia-aligned

If we lynch Julian, then we lose the information from seeing whether or not he dies tonight or not. Also, it seemed very likely that we were going to lynch Jakob, so if Julian was mafia, he used up a kill in order to save town a lynch, which seems really dumb.

Err, I die naturally tonight if and only if both jakob and I were town, which is impossible even from a neutral perspective.

Oh I guess I could be a mafia vigilante? Wouldn't that be cool

yeah, so either julian is a vanilla townie now for rest of game, or hes maf and jakob is town. probalby we just lynch him to be safe idk. there's not much downside.

A vanilla townie that did a townie thing, yeah. Also lynching me isn't the safe move: roleblocking me is. you should make sure to do that. but the more I think about it the less I think there is reason to lynch me, but I guess the truth biases me.

@Julian, I was on mobile earlier and hadn't seen your post, and I was incorrectly going off of an (IMO bad) previous rule where vigilantes didn't know whether they shot accurately until they died.

What if Julian is a serial killer though and using this opportunity to cover up his kill? I find it strange that we haven't seen any serial killer deaths yet already. Since it's my first game, I guess I'm not familiar with the flow, but is it likely for a vigilante to risk their own life this early? No matter how certain it may seem.

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"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx

I strongly oppose executing Julian. If he were mafia (or serial killer), it is unlikely that he would make a kill and then publicly announce it. It's too much of a risk and it's not necessary.

The possibility that he's mafia would be substantially higher if it were plausible that he intended to make the kill secretly and subsequently believed that he might be caught. But according to at least meghal, she knew that he was talking to Jakob. There is no possibility that he intended the kill to be surreptitious.

Furthermore, as others have mentioned, there is little risk to keeping Julian alive. We just need someone to roleblock him.

If I'm missing something, someone please speak up.

Anyway (very probably) great job Julian!

@ Sir Nicoeus:

It's unusual for a vigilante to make a kill so early in this game without extremely strong evidence, but it would be even more unusual for a mafia/serial killer to unnecessarily announce their kill like this.

Also, there was reasonably strong evidence against Jakob (multiple pair investigations failing to exonerate him.)

To be clear, it certainly is possible that Julian is attempting an elaborate mafia ploy. But I think it's correct to follow occum's razor here.

Do note that it was going to be known immediately anyway: Meghal said jakob already "paranoia"ed to her about Julian since he is going to talk to him about things. So announcing this may not be by choice but rather by force.

Oh, that's different from what I thought.

Is it consistent with the known facts that Julian:

a) Intended to kill Jakob surreptitiously

AND THEN

b) Subsequently realized he was (highly likely to be) caught

If not, then I think Julian looks very innocent. If the above scenario is plausible, then it's much more likely that he's mafia.

Thanks for the insight and advice. I'm really not sure what to think of this now. I don't know people's personalities at all and it's a bit unclear whether the lynch vote would likely be the better outcome with all variable considered. Obviously if he's mafia then yes, it's good. If he's a vigilante, it's bad. But does the risk of not killing a mafia outweigh the consequences of killing a town member. Especially with the relative numbers of the two groups. I'm gonna have to think this through some more before making my vote tonight.

_________________
"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx

This might already be clear but I strongly trust Ksedlar if jakob was bad. She voiced suspicions to me yesterday that he made the kill.

The people anti-correlated with Jakob are, in order of strength:
Julian (claims he's mafia)
Me (made two investigations against Jakob)
Mollie (made an investigation against Jakob, voted for Jakob yesterday)
Investigator Jupiter (whoever they are made an investigation against Jakob)
dcb22 (voted for Jakob yesterday)

I will say again: it was common knowledge that meghal was aware, as we had BOTH told her we were going to go talk. There is no possibility I intended to not be known to have done this kill