Live Action Mafia

We should coordinate on someone to vote against to make sure Julian isn't lynched.

The problem is, between the decisions of "lynch julian" and "don't lynch julian", the latter will have a much harder time coordinating.

So basically, who do we lynch?

I think by default, everyone who wants to not lynch Julian (which includes me) should vote no lynch first?

Are there any pair investigations that we could use for agu1's death?

I am not voting "no lynch" because it probably won't work (see yesterday).

The people without alibis are agdawson, ellenwan, j450, jma22, rachelyz, timgu. Also jwlw2022’s chamber chorus starts at 9:30, and Killian Hall is reasonably close to the site of the kill. I am quite suspicious of rachelyz because her class at 9:35 is in building 4, so it would’ve been easy for her to kill Andrew Gu.

Investigators, get in your investigations quickly! Priests, proxy any results you have. It's much better for us to make our execution decision once we've gotten the investigations in. We have a lot of investigative power. Take advantage of it!

The following people have not opened private messages that I sent them yesterday:

timgu
soumyar
ellenwan

If you can, please contact them and remind them to read the forum, and use their role powers!

I just poked them by email (since their mafia usernames were all their kerboroses.) But if you can remind them in person, that would be great. There's only an hour left today!

I agree with the idea that Julian shouldn't be lynched. My opinion is based on the idea that it is extremely unlikely he is mafia and announcing his kill so early like this.

pls proxy out that julian was roleblocked, someone.

I have been roleblocked - whoever did it should proxy out this fact

also, this thread is probably relevant again today, since we don’t have a clear lynch

I've probably said this to enough people at this point / it's been long enough that mafia aren't going to be surprised by this. But I would like to have Jakob shoveled. If Jakob is mafia, then mafia only have a (6/7)^3 chance of having a splitter and being able to manipulate the shovel result (serial killers could do it, but they wouldn't know what to manipulate the result to). Also, if they manipulate this result, they're much less likely to be able to manipulate a future result.

Anyway, shoveling Jakob provides a small but significant update in the direction of what the shovel result says, which has implications for e.g. Julian's alignment. Does someone want to buy a shovel and do this?

I would just like to say that my vote for Julian for today’s lynching was submitted at 10pm when there were no other presented suspects. This was because my phone was on 2% and I knew I wouldn’t have a chance to charge until after the deadline. Swapnilg and minimario can confirm that I made this vote earlier if it’s in doubt since we discussed this. To Julian, it’s nothing personal. There’s just pretty much no information on anyone else yet.

_________________
"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx

I can buy a shovel potentially but it has been a while, can't a splitter tamper the evidence?

katie's point is that there's a (6/7)^3 = about two thirds chance that there is no mafia splitter.

I'm... not 100% sure where that number comes from tbh. @ksedlar: can you show the math? I remember you explained it to me irl a bit ago but I think I was just nodding along and I'm sleepy enough that I'm not understanding what's going on there.

There are 7 roles, and if Jakob is mafia then there are 3 non-SK mafia left. Each mafia has a 6/7 chance of not being splitter, so there is a (6/7)^3 of none of the mafia being splitter. More relevantly, I assume that we want to shovel some people eventually, and not having a result this death (a death likely to be tampered with), makes it harder to do casework in the future.