Daniel Grazian wrote:
Using a prophet against me would be a good idea I think. But I'd recommend waiting another 5 days or so.
Either way, if you decide to do that, try to surprise me (while still having a good number of witnesses.) That way I'd have a harder time desperado killing.
Again, though, I think it is very unlikely (maybe 15%) that I'll be conscripted at some point in the game.
I disagree with this post on multiple points. First of all, 5 days is a lot of time. The game hasn't lasted 5 days and we've already found at least 2 mafia, had many important roles revealed (and several of them killed as a result), etc. I think we should consider using the prophet much sooner.
I also find the the fear of desperado killing suspicious. If Daniel were a mafia and thought he were about to be killed by the prophet, desperado killing would reveal his position with certainty (leaving us with use of the prophet) and only helps the mafia by letting them kill without additional mafia being detected for one night. This is a clear victory for town.
I'm less suspicious of this, but I'm curious why Daniel has raised the probability of conscription to 15%. He's been saying the chance was minimal all game; what happened that increased the chance so much? Is it that the town can no longer be expected to believe ~0% chance?