Live Action Mafia

Since nothing happened yesterday, same general plan for today? Except announce things way earlier.

Also, I'm precommitting to not checking forums until tomorrow morning because work, so poke me if you guys really need my input on things.

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...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

Same general plan, except announce things as soon as we can after the (first) kill of the day?

I really strongly think there is a sketch ball in ET who is using the poison to throw off the trail. There is literally 0 reason to not use the poison on sammyluo who is clearly playing the strongest this game.

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Lilly Chin
(NOT Lily Chen)

I think you implied a possible reason with your first point: the ET mob is hard to kill. (It's certainly possible that there's a mafia hiding at ET, but the fact that two ET people were poisoned shouldn't make it more likely.)

Should I dictate/suggest investigations for the GIs through their proxies? Fmajluf7 and I did this for the Isaac kill. If so, what sizes and who?

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

We should respond to Alex's question: Daniel Grazian's being mafia didn't compromise the security of the GCSN.

Dictating the GI investigations sounds nice but not necessary. Do as you see fit.

This may be the fourth mafia kill (since aok was a serial killer and tsims might have been vigilante), in which case it'd be investigable for donness, so we should consider asking (some) GIs to wait to see whether there are any other kills today before investigating.

If sammyluo is good, the following people are provably not original mafia, or are triviably outable:
-achester (IC)
-ajliu (stalker)
-ltchin (IC)
-Lucy (stalker, poisoned)
-sammyluo (stalker)
-sashacf (poisoned)

Also, if sammyluo is good, the claimed gay knights could only be original mafia if their partner is the conscript, in which case that's all the remaining mafia.
-Alex (GN)
-andytsai (GN)
-csvoss (GN)
-jessk (GN)

That is, if sammyluo is good and we haven't already essentially won, the last original mafia is one of:
-maxmurin
-Miranda Gavrin
-nastya
-nguyenin

(If sammyluo is bad, then a pair of GNs could be original mafia, or a stalker could be bad.)

(Or possibly it was jordanh and there's just a conscript left.)

I agree with this, with some qualification on the meaning of "essentially won."

Also, Lucy just pmed me saying she and Sasha want in on the gcsn, because they want the information to figure out what's going on. I'm not sure about the security v. efficiency tradeoff here - I wouldn't be that surprised at a fake poison claim. We could consider adding exactly one of them, but one is proven not pure mafia but relatively likely conscript, while the other is unlikely conscript but we have no good role info on.

Thoughts? (Preferably from more people than just achester...)

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

I think Lucy and not sashacf should be the mayor. If the mafia count comes up 3 and Lucy is mayor, it'd prove that either sammyluo is bad or Lucy is *conscript* (because if sammyluo is good, then 3 mafia must be a lie, and Lucy is a known stalker): that is, either sammyluo is bad, or everyone in the GCSN is good and the last original mafia is one of four.

If sashacf is the mayor and the mafia count comes up 3, we'd still prove that one of sammyluo and the mayor is bad, but we wouldn't know whether sashacf was original mafia or conscript, so we wouldn't thereby prove the rest of the GCSN good.

Other possible claimed mafia count results:
1: either the mayor is mafia and will be outed when they don't die, or jordanh was mafia or conscript (and I don't think she'd be a likely conscription target), everyone who was arguing for her execution is great, and we're really happy.
2: This is the most likely result. Sammyluo is most likely good since he supported at least one execution mob against a mafia (but there are still all sorts of mechanically possible situations where he's bad). Assuming he's good, jordanh was innocent and that was an incorrect execution mob, the last original mafia is one of maxmurin, Miranda Gavrin, nastya, and nguyenin, and there's a conscript somewhere.

(That wasn't a response to sammyluo's previous post. I'd like the opinions of people other than sammyluo on my post, since so much depends on his goodness.)

Re sammyluo's post (but other people should comment too): I also wouldn't be surprised by a fake poison claim, and am leery about adding either of them.

We got some evidence today (and yesterday, now that I think about it) that the current GCSN is uncompromised: if it were compromised, it probably would have been compromised since it was founded on day 2, and the mafia could've been setting one trap/day. In particular, they could've set 4 traps on days 2-5, but none of those was a multikill day, so they'd've wasted at least two days worth of set traps. (Granted, they're known to have wasted two regular kills already, so this is certainly possible, but it's evidence against a breach.)

I am still suspicious about sashacf and Lucy and am not sure we would gain very much by adding them to this forum. if y'all feel like the communication is stilted and you're telling them most stuff anyways, then sure add them.

To me, achester's analysis makes a lot of sense. I'm not really sure what else to add other than my skepticism about the poison charge. The poison charge still doesn't make sense to me.

From maxmurin, Miranda Gavrin, nastya, nguyenin, I am most suspicious about Miranda Gavrin mainly because she is the most experienced investigator from this set. I would approve a lynch mob for her and I have gut "good" instincts from everyone else.

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Lilly Chin
(NOT Lily Chen)

Things that any third person should weigh in on and decide by 9:00 so sammyluo can relay the network's decision:
-Which of Lucy and sashacf should be mayor.
-Whether to invite Lucy and/or sashacf to the GCSN.

Also, assuming the mafia count comes up 2 and no further kills happen, we should decide by 10:30 (sammyluo's second proxying slot) whom to execute. (If the mafia count isn't 2 or further kills happen, that's probably enough information that any discussion we do now would be obsoleted.) I'd vote for one of
-maxmurin
-Miranda Gavrin
-nastya
-nguyenin
(since if sammyluo is good, the last original mafia is one of them). Probably I'd go with maxmurin, since he was in brunnerj's class. If no one else weighs in, we can tell sammyluo to decide between maxmurin and Miranda Gavrin?

(The first part of that post was written before ltchin's, the second part after. It sounds like we're going with not inviting them. Whom to make mayor is still unresolved.)

Incidentally, they seem to trust each other a lot, so I think that if we invite either of them to the GCSN that one is likely to tell everything to the other, so we should probably not bother to invite exactly one of them.

Before I actually ban myself from the forums until 9pm, I'd like to say that Alex + andytsai is perhaps more likely than we've given it credit for. Sure, it's a 1-shot gamble, but it's one they could count on us being unlikely to act on. Also, aok had told me (when believing me to be mafia) that mafia should "not be afraid to claim gay knights." Presumably, if he got into contact with the real mafia, he told them the same.

See you guys at 9pm.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

True. We should note when the latest we could execute one of alex+andytsai to keep them from forcing through a win if they're bad together is, and consider executing one of them then. They wouldn't have any role information, so they could only make one kill/day plus a scheme, so we'd have until there are only five or six players left alive.

Alex + andytsai would surprise me a bit considering that mafia's not been playing particularly well this game and I'd expect Alex to play better than that.

So, recapping, Miranda Gavrin for lynch vote. I'm up for Lucy being mayor - achester's reasoning seems sound to me. I do not want to add either Lucy or sashacf here though.

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Lilly Chin
(NOT Lily Chen)

I'd rather pick maxmurin to lynch on principle of him being very near the kill, but I'm cool with Miranda Gavrin too. I'm also in favor of Lucy for mayor and don't feel strongly as to whether they get innocent den access.

I'm leaning towards Miranda Gavrin because I have a somewhat positive psych read on Max, so I guess we're tied. I'll post both to town and have people decide?

Also, we need to pick stalk targets.

Lastly, Lucy sent me this about Alex:



(In other words, no extra information.)

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

btw, maxmurin claims group investigator (and is self-proxying). I trust him more because some things he did made it seem pretty clear he was self-proxying, and I have a pretty positive psych read on him. I'm not sure my psych reads have been that reliable this game, though.

So, I think I'd prefer Miranda.

[Back to no foruming]

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

I propose the following stalkings:

Jack: Miranda Gavrin/maxmurin (whomever we don't execute)
Yuno Gasai: nguyenin
Angela: nastya

(If sammyluo's good and the mafia aren't a pair of gay knights, that's guaranteed to hit at least one mafia, and I think we'd rather have the conscript make a kill because information on who they are is more valuable.)

(If anyone wants to stalk me, I shouldn't have a say in not getting stalked.)

All the weird scenarios now require both Lucy and sammyluo to be bad, or sammyluo to be bad and have accepted an execution mob against a true mafia, or sammyluo to be bad and have not conscripted yet. Assuming not, we're in the case where one of {maxmurin, Miranda Gavrin, nastya, nguyenin} is the last original mafia, and someone unknown is a conscript. I'd suspect Alex slightly more than anyone else because he's experienced and not in the GCSN, and I suspect that the GCSN is intact (but we should keep executing the four until we run out of them or get good information from a kill).

Incidentally, we should request the last shovel from whoever has it.

No more consensus has been made, so I'll just confirm on Miranda.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

maxmurin just posted a six-person investigation of himself and five others. If he's actually good, including himself in the investigation results isn't unreasonable, but he should presumably have included a sixth person in the investigation, and we should have sammyluo ask him who.

If he hasn't already told us, this makes me like him a bit less.

(But I was already a vote against maxmurin, so this isn't new.)

Miranda Gavrin (The Hamburglar) confirmed that maxmurrin did not kill brunnerj, so now I'm not sure what to make of it.

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Lilly Chin
(NOT Lily Chen)

Either:
-The killer is/was don,
-manipulate the press was used,
-the conscript made the kill, or
-nastya is guilty.

(Also, since Miranda Gavrin was stalked yesterday, either sammyluo is bad or the conscript made that kill.)

Since nastya claims vigilante, we could order her to kill maxmurin, then execute her.

omg this is brutal.

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Lilly Chin
(NOT Lily Chen)

Seems reasonable; I suggested something analogous to fmajluf7 (before knowing there was a vig claim). I'd personally prefer to have her kill Tuan because psych reads, but I understand that Max is under more sketch globally.

_________________
...But then again, I'm... Oops. Math...fia is hard.

:Ṣḅ ̇+·Ạṣ:→ :Sb≡As:

P

We can actually order the deaths of any two of those three, since ordering nastya to kill one of them and then executing the other is an option. I'd be happier with that than not letting maxmurin survive. (Of course, if nastya claims to have hit a mafia, we should execute her instead of the other one of them to be sure of hitting at least one mafia.)

We should probably dictate the execution vote as late as possible today, since if the person we execute knows they're being executed, they'd make a kill ignoring the stalking.

By the way, we should check with andytsai (if we haven't already) that that gay knight claim actually has both of them claiming it.

Also, please post a request for the last shovel (if it still exists).

We could also wait until tomorrow to have nastya make a kill, since there'll still be one of the potential initial mafia alive, and having her alive gives us the chance to kill Lucy or sashacf if they don't die of poison.