Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 2:07 am 
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So I did a bunch of casework on possible pairs of mafia. In this process, I was really poking at the possibility of aok/Dgrazian being mafia. One of the things I tried to poke at was whether either of them were in the proxy chain for Nurse Joy. I poked up the chain, but they were being slow, so I also poked aok and Dgrazian directly. Both of them denied being in the chain. However, the chain responded, "yes" to whether Dgrazain/aok was a part of it. This meant someone was lying, so I asked for which one of them it was. I got the response of aok.
I went through the chain to Dylan, and he claimed that aok had been reporting to him. I asked aok again, and he denied being part of the chain. Thus, aok and Dylan were in beef.

At this point Joy is guaranteed mafia, so I might as well reveal the chain. The original chain went aok?->dylanhen->ermain->Matt->me->dylanhen->sashacf->me.

The other important information was that aok was Professor Oak. This info seems harmless to share now that he is dead. I also highly doubt that there are any investigators alive (they would have to be Jenny and have not reported anything for 2 days). Aok shared this information with me partway through yesterday, a little bit after we found out brunnerj had died. (Note that if you are Professor Oak, that means that aok was a lying mafia. Please report this info to someone who is not Dgrazian, ermain, or dylanhen.)

Thus, there were only 3 cases for who the mafia could be:
1. dylanhen and Matt
2. aok and Dgrazian
3. aok and ermain

See google form for the complete casework and the edge cases involved (I assumed the Squares people couldn't sneak away; edge cases were Pravina not being at her parents' house the whole time or Dgrazian/aok somehow sneaking away to kill Sasha mid board game): https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

Personally, I thought aok seemed good, and I thought that 1 was definitely the most likely scenario, but the aok scenarios involved two living mafia, which meant that it was very risky to not lynch aok unless we could guarantee a tiebreak towards him and guarantee that everyone voted tomorrow (this was possible, but it just seemed safer given the last-minuteness to lynch aok in the first place).

THERE IS NO REASON TO LYNCH SOMEONE OTHER THAN DYLANHEN TONIGHT. Short of someone else making a public kill or something. If game somehow doesn't end with Dylan's death, then one of Dgrazian or ermain needs to be lynched the next day. TBH I think Dgrazian is slightly sketchier, but I'd be pretty surprised if Dylan is not mafia.

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PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 2:13 am 

Joined: Thu Jan 07, 2010 11:50 pm
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As an aside:

Aok claimed to be professor oak. If he was not, something very funny is going on, very likely involving aok being Mafia. If you are professor oak, please announce yourself to Ksedlar.

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PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 1:24 pm 
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I actually just realized that the aok/ermain case is kind of silly. If aok were mafia, he would have had to count on no one unraveling Joy's chain and seeing that he was two investigators (finding out this would get him into a beef, like what happened). So aok would have no reason to report Dgrazian->sashacf as innocent rather than ermain->sashacf as innocent for the Joy's third investigation, especially because I explicitly said that the former result confirms our plan to lynch ermain. Theoretically there could be a bunch of reverse psychology, but this is less likely.

So there are actually only two cases for mafia pairs; as mentioned though, it's probably Dylan/Matt.

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PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 8:15 pm 
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Reminder to refer to the spreadsheet of cases in case tonight's lynch doesn't work for some reason.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... edit#gid=0

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PostPosted: Thu May 26, 2016 8:47 pm 
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Not sure if this was generally viewable or not, but it should be fixed. https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... sp=sharing

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