Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 9:23 am 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
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I went through the spreadsheet (and a few things I remembered not on it) this morning trying to condense it into a single sketchiness ordering. It's probably about the time in the game when the mafia might kill me as one of the most active players left, so remember this if I die.

-joachim.
1. Joachim hasn't posted alibis for anything since day 1. The other person with multiple missing alibis was boof, who was almost certainly mafia, so at least some of the mafia have been following the alibi strategy of just not posting alibis, even for kills they likely made.
2. If joachim's actually a townie, he's useless anyway. If we've actually caught four mafia (jamb, sammyluo, brunnerj, boof), we can afford a lynch of a useless townie; not sure whether we can if we've only caught three (if jamb was actually a townie).
3. If joachim's actually been as inactive as he seems, it helps explain why there've been fewer kills than expected: he could a serial killer who didn't make a kill until day 3 or 4.
4. Seeming as inactive as joachim lets him avoid being psychread for literally anything.

-dylanhen
1. When lukesci asked him about brunnerj's alibi for maxmurin's death, he was slow to respond that brunnerj had sketchily left. (I'dn't read too much into this, since dylanhen has, as a townie in another game, accidentally actually alibied mafia for kills they've made, but it's certainly an update toward sketchiness).
2. He seems psychologically sketchy to at least me and, if I remember correctly, lukesci (although he sort of always does).
3. He tried to say that he and lukesci alibied each other for jakob's death when lukesci thinks either of them could have done it. I'd like investigations on dylanhen for jakob's death, if anyone can do them; I think dylanhen is more sketchy if those investigations don't clear him.
4. Voted to lynch m2w, a townie, on day 1, when literally every vote mattered.

-Chiller.
1. I disagree with just about everything he says on forums. I think he'd do this as a townie too, but this should probably be an update toward sketchiness.
2. He led the lynch mob against jamb. If jamb was actually mafia, this makes him almost certainly town, but if she was town and was planted evidence on (which I think is likely, given that she didn't explode with items and seems unlikely to have made either of the kills before she was lynched), he's majorly sketchy for leading that lynch mob and even more sketchy for that the mafia thought it was important to plant evidence on jamb.

-rusch
1. Has no player alibis for any kill.

-ObitoSigma
1. Just about everything he says on forums is trollish. I think he'd do this whether as a townie or as mafia.

-Julian
1. Was pushing to lynch mayars instead of jamb on day 2. Mayars was definitely town and jamb might not have been.
2. Voted to lynch m2w, a townie, on day 1, when literally every vote mattered.

-natalyat
1. Voted to lynch m2w, a townie, on day 1, when literally every vote mattered.

-yyao1
1. Has no player alibis for any kill.
2. Voted no lynch to save m2w on day 1, a lynch where literally every vote mattered.

-laberca
1. Has no player alibis for any kill.
2. Voted no lynch to save m2w on day 1, a lynch where literally every vote mattered.

-Python
1. One of the first to push for lynching sammyluo, at least according to the spreadsheet.
2. Voted to lynch m2w, a townie, on day 1, when literally every vote mattered.

-achester (I claim that this is where I belong in the global sketch list, but the rest of you should ignore this and judge for yourself.)
1. I was pushing not to lynch m2w, who turned out to be town, on day 1, on a lynch where literally every vote mattered.

-cmcclena
1. Was pushing to lynch mayars instead of jamb on day 2. Mayars was definitely town and jamb might not have been.
2. (Something redacted to avoid giving mafia ideas, but I'd say it's an 0.2 bit update toward her being town.)
3. Voted no lynch to save m2w on day 1, a lynch where literally every vote mattered.

-lukesci
1. He was pushing not to lynch m2w, who turned out to be town, on day 1, on a lynch where literally every vote mattered.
2. I have a town psychread on him.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:21 am 

Joined: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:11 pm
Posts: 0
achester wrote:
I went through the spreadsheet (and a few things I remembered not on it) this morning trying to condense it into a single sketchiness ordering. It's probably about the time in the game when the mafia might kill me as one of the most active players left, so remember this if I die.

-joachim.
1. Joachim hasn't posted alibis for anything since day 1. The other person with multiple missing alibis was boof, who was almost certainly mafia, so at least some of the mafia have been following the alibi strategy of just not posting alibis, even for kills they likely made.
2. If joachim's actually a townie, he's useless anyway. If we've actually caught four mafia (jamb, sammyluo, brunnerj, boof), we can afford a lynch of a useless townie; not sure whether we can if we've only caught three (if jamb was actually a townie).
3. If joachim's actually been as inactive as he seems, it helps explain why there've been fewer kills than expected: he could a serial killer who didn't make a kill until day 3 or 4.
4. Seeming as inactive as joachim lets him avoid being psychread for literally anything.


You're suspecting I could be mafia because I don't post alibis, but you risk meeting me for the item exchange? Hm... ;) Pardon my inactivity; given that, realistically, yes, I am probably not a big loss for town. But don't waste a shovel on me, as I am innocent townie.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 10:24 am 

Joined: Sun Feb 23, 2014 11:14 am
Posts: 0
While you're here, care to post alibis for all the kills so far?


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:46 pm 
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Joined: Sun Sep 17, 2017 9:59 am
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I think recent events push both chiller and lukesci up in sketchiness.

Chiller because he pushed hard to lynch jamb, and lukesci because getting the mafia count on the person who submitted it is unlikely and increases the chance he is lying.

It also puts them into pretty near a beef: while it is possible they are both town, there's no way they are both mafia and a good chance one of them is mafia.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 1:49 pm 
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Also, of the two, I think chiller is considerably sketchier and should be considered for tonight's lynch target.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:13 pm 
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Joined: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:02 pm
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Luke was just as likely as any of the other (6?) to be chosen; the fact that he submitted the counter shouldn't have anything to do with it. In fact, if someone else were to be chosen, it wouldn't make much sense for Luke to lie, because the chosen one could just counterclaim (unless the chosen one were also mafia, and for some reason, they decided to have Luke lie, but that seems unlikely to me.)

Also, what stops lukesci and chiller from both being mafia? I don't buy the beef idea.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:15 pm 
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What I'm saying is Luke being the one to submit and receive the counter results introduces the possibility that he didn't submit it at all and made up the results, which would guarantee a town person would not get it.

I think it's impossible they are both mafia because if they were Luke would have said there were 3 mafia remaining to make chiller look less sketch.


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 Post subject: Re: Sketch list day 5
PostPosted: Sun Oct 15, 2017 2:19 pm 
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I think it is pretty unlikely luke is lying though, because if he was mafia, unless everyone else who signed was town, he would just have another mafia player say the results.


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