Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:07 pm 
We should consider deciding on a default lynch earlier (a person who we'll lynch if there is no hard evidence from today's kill.) Yesterday was a clusterfuck where we had an hour to make a lynch choice, which was made even worse by the fact that the death time was off, VERY relevantly changing the alibis of tsims, michikyo, anpere, jessk, and miles.

I think that a default lynch decision should be reached 2-3 hours before day end. Mafia benefit most from last minute lynches. Also, if the lynch target is actually an innocent child or gay knight, they have sufficient time to reveal as such (if this happens, that innocent child / gay knight should be the dictator for the lynch). I don't think it is particularly good practice for the new dictator to just decide to lynch the person who proposed them as a target, as this discourages people from posting / taking accountability for / proposing individual ideas. If anyone is about to die the evening of the lynch (dying desperado, dying gay knight, vampire about to innocence test), they should say so and declare themselves dictator at the START of the lynch discussion. People saying "I'm dying tonight!" after they have already been agreed upon as a target shouldn't be trusted.

As stated in the ABC thread, I don't like Josh's idea of going through the alphabet.

Previous games have tended to favor lynching inactives. Although I do think mafia are less likely to be inactive than townies, if inactives were NOT favored lynch targets, then it becomes very easy for mafia to fake inactivity. I have, as mafia, encouraged newer mafia (especially ones making kills) to look as inactive as possible without being completely inactive, and I've also seen it happen in other with worrying levels of effectiveness. So I think lynching the occasional inactive is reasonable, although we should definitely prefer to lynch based on people's suspicions. Also, aok, are evictions in game?

There's also the practice of lynching people who consistently have bad or no alibis. I think this is pretty reasonable as a strategy, although I do worry on a more OOG level that this is unfairly biased against people who live away from Live Action Mafia hubs (although it might balance out with the fact that they tend to not be in-person killed as much...)

Anyway, going to take a nap soon, but I want to get this discussion started. I currently have no non-trivial suspicions. My current inclination is to lynch a non-new player who has a yellow or worse level alibi for yesterday. I am also somewhat inclined against lynching people who are generally popular mafia targets (e.g. Dgrazian or Lily Chen), people who are elected (I know I'm majorly biased, but it is a major pain to fill out petitions...), and Lucy (she's never been killed by the opposing team, and so I feel mildly like we'd be fulfilling the prophecy and she'd have to be town :shock: ). I also have minor non-sketchy vibes from lzahray, sueshep, and cjfman. There is one other person I don't want to lynch, but I can't say why, so I won't say who they are for now.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 6:11 pm 
Going to strongly continue pushing for ABC, people historically are shit without at least medium-hard circumstance evidence, mafia can swing things super, super easily. I believe ksedlar dislikes this based on principal not sketchiness, but damn, if we care about winning we tell people we're going to lynch them, and see if they can get a vouch. If not lynch them, it's unfortunate and sad, but the way the game ought to be played with mandatory lynchings.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:04 pm 
So even though Sueshep seems pretty sure she is going to get lynched tonight, she seems pretty townish to me. Both in terms of psychological evidence, and in terms of the fact that I can't imagine why a mafia would make the play she did. In particular, we were interested in lynching Ama, who was seen at the ESP office when the investigator hiding mob got there. At the very least, town would have wasted an investigation if she hadn't said anything.

So I say definitely don't lynch Sueshep.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:07 pm 
Can somebody inform people who aren't at Random what's going on?


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:16 pm 
A big mob of people went to the student center to hide investigators for arkady's death. We got to the ESP office and there were a bunch of NPs there. We asked them if they had seen anyone tap Arkady on the shoulder. The NPs all said, "No, go away. We have work to do." We were about to leave when Sam and I noticed that Ama, a girl from EC who had signed our petitions, was there. We asked her, "Hey, you're playing Live Action Mafia, right?" to make sure we recognized her. She was kind of dodgey about it, and wouldn't say anything. So we left and guessed we had found a newbie rogue. Then, on the way back, Sueshep tells me and dukhovni, "I killed arkadyf," and then explains that she was an unsuccessful vigilante.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 9:39 pm 
I think sueshep is probably telling the truth, and I think we should lynch sueshep on principal unless we have a better target. If sueshep is indeed a failed vigilante, she's not particularly useful to town at this point. I'm also not sure why sueshep would lie for Ama unless they were in cahoots.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:25 pm 
Publicly announcing that I am lynching lopezv. I don't have evidence of him being mafia, but he is the person Sueshep said she would lynch if she could dictate the lynch. It is way better to get in a lynch that has a chance of being mafia than to lynch someone who we believe strongly to be vanilla.

I cannot think of any world in which what Sueshep did would be good play as mafia (or rogue). Why would she confess to the kill, knowing that people would likely end up lynched? A mafia/rogue dying is definitely bad for mafia. Maybe, theoretically, she could be protecting another mafia, you say? Who? The lynch for the night was still up in the air. The only person who she could plausibly be protecting would be Ama, but Sueshep is a more active, more experienced player than Ama, and so it would almost certainly be a bad trade. If there is a possible world where Sueshep doing this as mafia would be good play, someone tell me.

No lynching is absolutely not better than lynching someone who we strongly believe to be innocent. Please, do not lynch Sueshep people...


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:30 pm 
yes I was in the ESP office at the time of arkadyf's death, and was visibly confused (as was every other ESP member in the office) to see a bunch of non-ESP people in the office (the investigator mob). Although I didnt see arkadyf's death go down, I noticed Sueshep (who I'm almost positive isn't an ESP member) in the room around 7:30 and wouldn't be at all surprised if she killed arkadyf. ksmori, who was also in the ESP office at the time, can vouch for me (and I can vouch for her) that I did not kill arkadyf, as we were both working with each other on our laptops between 7 and 9pm.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:32 pm 
Also, Sueshep is still useful to town. For one thing, having more town-aligned players to notice things and give input is good. For another thing, mafia would still have to kill her, which is actually a nontrivial task... Many mafia are caught by alibis falling through, NPs turning them in, accidentally being caught too close to the murder site, and, you know, investigations.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:36 pm 
I would advocate lynching Sueshep. Remember ltchin from last game. Sueshep is still by far the player most likely to be guilty we know of.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:43 pm 
I do not trust ksedlar and do not want to be following her here, whether the suggestion is initially coming from her or not.

My suggestion is to lynch sueshep. She made a kill. Yes she admitted it. But she might have done so because she thought she was likely to be caught.

Do not lynch victor though. Or anybody else ksedlar or sueshep suggests.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:44 pm 
Yeah, lynch sueshep seems right.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:45 pm 
I will be voting to lynch sueshep. If she's telling the truth, she's at best a vanilla townie, and public vanillas who can be killed for free are a liability to town. Better if town kills her than if the mafia get her.

Sorry sueshep =(


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:46 pm 
Does anyone have a single suggestion that isn't Sueshep then?


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:46 pm 
I'm voting for isaacg; sorry, you just sketch me out a bunch. He was the main one pushing people to do the 1-of-2 role reveals, which I agree with Daniel Grazian and others were an awful play. He publicly announced sueshep as vigilante while we were still figuring out whether we had a use for her unrevealed. Advocating for lynching sueshep also doesn't sit well with me, since I still believe she's likely innocent. I was on the ESP mob, and was super suspicious of Ama just like everyone else; I agree with ksedlar that if sueshep was mafia, it wouldn't make sense for her to tell us she killed arkady. I really don't see why public vanillas are a liability; mafia's already killing plenty of townies, we don't need to give them a hand.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:48 pm 
She's not a liability if she's innocent (the mafia still have to go through the trouble of killing her.) But she's not tremendously valuable either.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:50 pm 
I think we want to avoid the possiblity of a tie vote which would lynch two people at once. I'm not entirely sure how sketch I find sueshep right now, but I think it is in the best interest of town to avoid voting shenanigans that get two people lynched


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:51 pm 
She's a conscription risk. If she doesn't die in a few days I'd push pretty strongly to lynch her. So why not just lynch her now since we don't really have a better target for tonight.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:52 pm 
Don't lynch isaacg.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:54 pm 
I'm more of the opinion that Sueshep is more valuable alive - i don't think she confesses to this kill as mafia. Someone could give her an item and then mafia might be scared into using up a kaboom on her, or we could find out who attempts to kill her that way.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 10:54 pm 
Care to say why? Isaac, care to defend yourself?


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:48 pm 
I guess this is kind of irrelevant, but let me explain my actions: My day 1 1-for-2 reveal plan was, I honestly believe, best play for town. If it helps, I advocated this strategy prior to knowing my role, and continued afterwards. I am sorry for announcing Sueshep as vigilante before everyone had come to consensus, but at least 9 people knew at that time, so it was a pretty open secret. I thought she was the best lynch from town perspective, though I personally believe her to be innocent. If everyone else agrees with this, I am fine with keeping her alive.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Mon Jan 12, 2015 11:51 pm 
I can confirm that Isaac was advocating the 1-of-2 plan before he knew his role. There was an...animated discussion about how to use vampires.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:05 am 
I was with Ama in the ESP office at the time of intrusion. I vouch that she didn't have the reach to kill arkadiyf.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:10 am 
Not sure if this is meta-gaming, but I can confirm that Isaac did advocate for the 1-for-2 reveal plan pre-game.

I was under the impression that far fewer than 9 people knew. I thought it was just Haley and you, plus me and dukhovni after you told Sueshep to talk to us.

Again, I restate that her play wouldn't make much sense for a mafia. If anyone disagrees with me on this, please say so (there was a proposal that she was a mafia thinking she'd be caught, but her story matches with Haley's, and she was very concerned about not having investigations wasted on other people for the kill). So I don't think it makes sense to believe she is mafia.

Then there were also people who said they wanted to lynch her even though they strongly believe she is town. At minimum, this requires believing that no-lynch is better than a random-ish lynch. (A person who is probably town getting lynched is clearly worse than no lynch.) It then additionally requires thinking that no-lynch is so much better than a random-ish lynch that it is worth the life of a likely townsperson, who still has to be tracked down and killed without being seen by NPs or players, and who has to not be investigated.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:18 am 
ksedlar wrote:
Then there were also people who said they wanted to lynch her even though they strongly believe she is town. At minimum, this requires believing that no-lynch is better than a random-ish lynch.

I do in fact believe this, as I have advocated in previous games.

Quote:
It then additionally requires thinking that no-lynch is so much better than a random-ish lynch that it is worth the life of a likely townsperson, who still has to be tracked down and killed without being seen by NPs or players, and who has to not be investigated.

I believe that, given that town is bad at actually doing random lynches, mafia will have no problem weaseling their way out of a non-obvious lynch. Given this premise, I believe that we are (almost) always lynching a townsperson anyway. Lynching a spent vigilante (effectively a vanilla) is better than lynching the average townsperson, in terms of expected value of role usefulness. That's basically why I wanted to lynch sueshep, as I've explained to dgrazian and others.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:21 am 
ksedlar wrote:
I was under the impression that far fewer than 9 people knew. I thought it was just Haley and you, plus me and dukhovni after you told Sueshep to talk to us.


At this point, Lane, Shikexue and the rest of the group walking back from Arkadiyf's death scene knew as well. Sueshep and I had discussed the matter and decided that revealing before any possible investigation was important, and therefore decided to reveal immediately.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:22 am 
This is consistent with the viewpoint I have held previously (and still hold), which is that town should always no-lynch unless the lynch is glaringly obvious (e.g. a positive investigation result, eyewitnesses to a kill, or other hard evidence).


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:35 am 
Lily, I know you personally believe that, and also that you believe that as a townsperson (e.g. advocating for declared gay knight Miranda lynched last game after she revealed as gay knight). I strongly disagree with this.

In my simulator (doesn't have don, mayor, police officer, vampire, or vigilante), a random person randomly selects a lynch (e.g. a person who isn't them if they are town, and a non mafia/known rogue if they are mafia). In a simulation of this game size with higher than average (8) investigators and lower than average (3 and 4) innocent children and gay knights, town win rates drop from 62% to 57%. With fewer investigators (4) and more innocent children and gay knights (5 and 6), town win rates drop from 52% to 35%. I believe I gave similar results last game, so this can't be something I've invented as a mafia. So, either town is REALLY, REALLY incompetent, my simulator is SIGNIFICANTLY off, or no lynch is worse than lynching (and lynching a revealed townie is definitely worse than lynching otherwise).

To be fair though, my simulator does assume that selected innocent children / gay knights publicly reveal, then choose the lynch themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: Lynching
PostPosted: Tue Jan 13, 2015 12:48 am 
I do in fact believe that town is really, really incompetent at lynching randomly.


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