Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:14 am 
At least until I unlock my room. As I said, I have no desire to get conscripted. Please, NO ONE reveal your role to me. I really, really hate being mafia... Almost as much as I hate INCORRECT SUSPICION OF ME! Anyway, I request that regarding the possibility of me getting conscripted, please do not do the "OMG Katie didn't die for a couple days let's lynch her now!!" thing. I request that you put me somewhere in the middle of the lynch possibilities bucket, and do not exempt me from investigations if I have bad alibis. Do not blindly trust what I say (after the next hour), but do not be unnecessarily skeptical in the same way people were being earlier. I should generally have reasonable justification for the things I do.

My trusted list (no reasons given intentionally):
Top (Very trusted): Austin Fathman, Tsims, Akshat, Dukhovni
Middle (pretty trusted): Haley, Dininno,
Mild (generally based just on psychological/mild evidence): Lily Chen (We argue a lot and I disagree with a lot of the things she has said, but I think she's a townie anyway), Lzahray, Cjfman, Isaacg, Oreo, Asludds

My sketch list:
moderate:
Daniel Grazian - Usually is much more active. Definitely was when he was "super busy at work" in the Summer 1 game. So far it looks like most of his activity has been directed towards defaming me, defaming Sueshep, and starting last-minute lynch mobs. Advocating for not doing the 1/2 plan was good, but I don't think he could plausibly be in "town Dgrazian" character and defend it. The only thing I'm worried about is the fact that if he is town, he's a pretty valuable townie...
mild:
abergal - She gets proposed as the default lynch. Shi-ke proceeds to make a new thread suggesting other lynch targets, then mildly state a preference for lynching Akshat. Also, Josh died right after proposing ABC lynch. Also, she was on the "lynch Sueshep" bus.
frevan - Surprise lynch vote for Sueshep.
lopezv - Not so much because of anything he did, but because he was Sueshep's suggested lynch, and when I proposed lynching him on the grounds that it was Sueshep's (clearly non-mafia biased) lynch choice, the idea was seemed to get quickly shot down.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:16 am 
Anyway, I started writing that a while ago, and then I got distracted with things. I now have to go to the bathroom, and I will thus be exiting my room. Please bear in mind though that my room is just off of Clam lounge, which I think has ~5 players in it currently, so any conscription of me would be the most obvious one in conscription history.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:31 am 
That sounds reasonable. I don't think dgrazian is as sketchy as you think, but I also spend more time with him and am thus biased to trust him more. He really has been super hosed this week, but I agree that he has been less obviously townie-ish than in previous games. I think abergal would be a reasonable default lynch for tomorrow for the reasons you stated.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:58 am 
Have been hanging out in Clam lounge with tons of players recently.

One thing to note: Michikyo's medkit was redistributed to ltchin. Ltchin didn't live through Shi-ke killing her, so I think it is a reasonable bet to say that mafia may have a medkit now. So, vigilantes should be very careful about trying to kill revealed mafia.

Agree that abergal is probably a good lynch for tomorrow. I would like to lynch Dgrazian the next day though.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:24 am 
ksedlar wrote:
lopezv - Not so much because of anything he did, but because he was Sueshep's suggested lynch, and when I proposed lynching him on the grounds that it was Sueshep's (clearly non-mafia biased) lynch choice, the idea was seemed to get quickly shot down.


I can talk about this. Evan (NP) told hbates, who told Sueshep, that he had overheard lopezv and Arkadiyf talking, and one said they were mafia and one said they were rogue. On this basis, Sueshep Vigilante killed arkadiyf, and proposed to lynch lopezv. When arkadiyf turned up innocent, she retracted the lynch. There is no actual reason to lynch lopezv based on this, nor hbates, just some unfortunate misunderstanding.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:32 am 
It was more that people wouldn't accept him as a very likely townie selected random-ish lynch.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:33 am 
Going to sleep now. Leaving Clam lounge with its multiple people.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:34 am 
As a brief fact check, I believe it was me, isaacg, and arkadiyf that were joking around about being mafia, and that led to the confusion chain that resulted in sueshep killing arkadiyf. This thus makes me confused why lopezv was suggested by sueshep aside from lopezv being a bit distracted/unfocused when being told something by sueshep in regards to the game. I think that was her main reason, as she explained to clam kitchen.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:46 am 
Yes, I thought her reasoning was bad, but it was still an above average lynch choice because it was selected by an innocent person (versus the average lynch, which is sometimes suggested by or pushed through by mafia).


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:55 am 
Actually, I think I'm not quite as worried about being conscripted as I originally thought...
Reasoning:
In order for mafia to have a use of conscription, one of the following must be true
a. Shi-ke was not mafia aligned. Unlikely, in my opinion. I went through the options in another thread, and I thought the "Shi-ke is mafia option" most likely. Furthermore, I have good psychological reasoning to trust the investigator. Also, Shi-ke being mafia fits with the clue results. 7, 6, 7 for the first 3 kills. The mafia who made the kill would have destroyed a clue for the first two, and Shi-ke, who led the "hide investigators" mobs, would have been the first to arrive on the scene for the second two.
b. Shi-ke was rogue. Unlikely. Plant evidence was likely used on the shovel result, which would have been much riskier if Shi-ke was a rogue unknown to mafia (he wouldn't have had the chance to get in contact with them yet). Mafia would have no way of knowing if/what Shi-ke had role claimed. Plus, I think it makes much more sense for yesterday to have a mafia kill, but no rogue kills, than vice versa, if they were reasonably competent.
c. Sam is mafia, and lied about the count the mafia result. I think this is unlikely. As mentioned above, I trust Sam a lot, for much more than psychological reasons. In particular, Sam passed off the receiver he started with to Pravina, a now proven innocent.

So, I think conscript has already been used.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:19 am 
Can you elaborate on "Frevan: Surprise lynch vote for Sueshep". I PM'd God before 11 (10:53) to be exact) with my vote; however somehow Aok did not receive it, so later when I saw that my vote hadn't been counted I texted him a screenshot of my sent pm with my vote and the time it sent clearly visible. I did not know that doing this would result in the death of two people that night, so I regret this action now. I do not think I should be penalized for something that was not my fault.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:30 am 
It wasn't the god based confusion, but more the fact that I think it was a bad vote for a very, very likely innocent, in particular with no forum posts regarding reasoning beforehand. Making that vote put Shi-ke on my mild sketch list earlier. Lilychen and Isaacg have explanations that were IMO bad, but I think consistent with them being townies. Abergal is also on my sketch list for her vote and happiness with lynching Sueshep.

Again emphasizing that the suspicions I listed are MILD suspicions.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 9:53 am 
Okay, I just didn't want that to be something that was influencing your suspicion. I have been very hesitant in this game to switch my vote near the end of the day due to last-minute lynching chaos. From reading the post analysis of the last game and from what people have said in this game it seemed to me that last minute actions that caused chaos we're likely mafia driven in some way, so I have been hesitant to change my vote. I stayed with my Sueshep vote rather than Jessk and also last night I did not see that the credibility of the investigator accusing Shixe had been verified, so I kept my vote for akshat.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 10:53 am 
Might it be a good idea to vampire check the sketchy people before lynching them, especially since we have a confirmed vampire in town? I don't think it's a great idea to default to lynching all suspicious players.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:42 pm 
I am willing to be vampire checked using the same procedure as ksedlar, but since we have so few vampires I think we need to conserve their use for stronger suspicions or after we have more evidence that conscription has been used.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 12:45 pm 
I think ksedlar should pick a person to be vampire-checked tonight, ideally by tsims.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:15 pm 
We lynch either one of dgrazian or abergal tonight or vampire-check. At least for me, dgrazian seems more suspicious than abergal at this point mainly because he seems less active than previous games (and now is becoming more active as we keep talking about this). I would prefer that tsims vampire check him (or abergal) before we lynch because they're experienced players and we don't want to lose an asset to town if they are innocent.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:41 pm 
I agree with qql. Except I want to be vampire checked and not lynched.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:51 pm 
ok, do you trust Austin Fathman to be the proxy for this check also?


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:54 pm 
Both of you should reveal to Austin, then tsims should say which roles he find tasty, and Austin should decide based on that, who tsims should check.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 1:57 pm 
I agree with Lily (I'm assuming you're talking about abergal and dgrazian?)


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:00 pm 
(Of course, if you were talking about me, Lily, I'd be happy to submit myself for vampire checking also...)


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:04 pm 
I meant abergal and dgrazian


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:07 pm 
Ok agreed. If we don't hear from abergal soon regarding this plan, we should start thinking she's extra suspicious. But I agree AustinFathman should still be the proxy for this.


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PostPosted: Wed Jan 14, 2015 2:30 pm 
I like lilychen's idea, this makes it more likely that there is someone that the vampires can check.


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