Live Action Mafia
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Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4
https://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=111&t=3563
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Author:  sammyluo [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

lzahray wrote:
JFK says kmulrhad did not kill Jakob, and thinks it's worth town knowing there was only one clue.

OK, looking back through things, Jakob's death is the one that makes the most sense as the second serial killer kill: ltchin's kill was likely to silence the fmajluf7 investigation, as was kmuhlrad -> regirock (if only regirock had told Trek who her new proxy was! :P ); the rest, besides dgrazian/ksedlar, seem like plausibly easy kills by fmajluf7.

So I propose we focus attention on ltchin's death, perhaps having one or two people verify that fmajluf indeed killed tsims and Lucy (those daily orange squares haha). We can wait on catching the serial killer; right now we want to find more mafia.

Maybe start by the long-pending fmajluf->ltchin investigation, but if that's negative, we can likely find a third mafia by scouring that kill (or, of course, new kills happening after today). I personally don't think fmajluf->ltchin is likely because trapping Austin/ltchin seems hard, and ltchin was very likely a kill of necessity, made because of her investigation suggestion. However, it's certainly possible.

Also, considering 1 death on day 4, there's likely an existing trap set on someone (justinej? me, from picking a bad proxy?), so expect up to 3 deaths today. No serial killer kills until at least day 6. (I could be wrong though, if ltchin was an SK and Jakob was not, but this seems much less likely).

Of course, once fmajluf is tased/killed/lynched we can focus on new deaths too.

Author:  inisley [ Wed Apr 08, 2015 11:13 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

fmajluf->ltchin came up negative (I posted this in the investigation thread, but I'll put it here too as well)

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:43 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

OK, actually, I messed up.

Jhgilles was framed for Jakob's death, which means either kmuhlrad saw the kill happening, another mafia made the kill, or mafia were just betting on jhgilles not being an SK. I think this ups the chance that Jakob was killed by a mafia, not an SK.

fmajluf/kmuhlrad are almost certainly mafia for being in league with each other, as is Ara. lilychen is almost certainly SK. Assuming SKs were still restricted to days 1-3, not 1-4 (Kellena, can you confirm this publicly?), this leaves tsims, Jakob, or ltchin as the second SK kill. We're pretty sure tsims was trap-killed, so it's between the other two.

I was previously saying Jakob was the more likely SK kill since killing ltchin would make sense as a way to silence the accusation against fmajluf, but now I'm not so sure anymore. Either is possible, I think. Others, please give your thoughts.

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:45 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

fmajluf -> tsims should still be checked, but maybe efforts should be more concentrated on finding Lucy's killer assuming SK couldn't have legally done a day 4 kill, until we safely determine which of ltchin/Jakob was SK-killed.

(I also have other reasons that will be clear by day end for getting more investigations on Lucy.)

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:49 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

Also, Jakob definitely was not trapped, so maybe mafia trapped tsims on day 2 and regirock on day 3, but I'm not sure. regirock could've been an emergency scheme, but ltchin's death seems too coincidental if it wasn't done by mafia...

Author:  Kellena [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 9:54 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

sammyluo wrote:
Assuming SKs were still restricted to days 1-3, not 1-4 (Kellena, can you confirm this publicly?



SKs MUST make a kill in the first three days.

Author:  mads [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 11:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

sammyluo wrote:
maybe efforts should be more concentrated on finding Lucy's killer assuming SK couldn't have legally done a day 4 kill, until we safely determine which of ltchin/Jakob was SK-killed.

(I also have other reasons that will be clear by day end for getting more investigations on Lucy.)


Huh, I'm inclined to trust sammyluo. Investigators, try to investigate Lucy's death soon then? Priority investigation targets include isaacg and jessk. Sashacf and svolz are also possible targets. All of them were nearby at the time of the kill.

Also, sammyluo, make sure those reasons don't die with you in case you get set-a-trapped.

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:18 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

Bumping this one final (?) time before I (most likely) die. I may be wrong about a lot of things, but it's good to keep the parts that are likely important in mind even after I'm gone. Good luck, town!

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 1:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

See other thread about "actually, investigate other people if you think that's better" (ltchin/Jakob do have people on average having better alibis, which is a plus)

Trust/distrust list has been sent towards ICs, but here's a partial list to be safe (intentional omission has happened):
Mildly trust:
anpere
ama
Probably aok until at least yesterday afternoon, likely still

mildly distrust:
arkadiyf

slightly-more-than-mildly distrust:
isaacg

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 2:59 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

Cuervo announces that isaacg did not kill Lucy. Ok, investigators should probably go back to investigating for Jakob/ltchin.

Reasons (for halting on Lucy, and for starting in the first place) will become apparent by day end.

Author:  sammyluo [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 3:57 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

Oh shoot, one more (unlikely) possibility: Mafia disarmed the second SK. this is unlikely because of 4-death Monday, but possible

Author:  anpere [ Thu Apr 09, 2015 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Summary of pending investigative tasks from days 1-4

I doubt both mafia are alive .There are too many 1 clues left sites for this too be true,
either that, or we have one very dedicated serial killer.

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