Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Mon Jul 13, 2015 11:15 am 
Mafia have a good start with getting Lily Chen among their number. However, town has the nice property of being 100% veteran players. Mafia won't be able to get away with any bs.

Lucy and Daniel Grazian are the most dangerous to mafia IMO, in terms of their history of mafia-catching, and their lack of willingness to just "go with the crowd" on issues. People are also going to be suspicious of Lily because of how often she has been mafia in recent history (and how dangerous she has been when she is).

I definitely don't think having a hitman use kaboom is a good plan. Hitmen kills don't out a mafia if they fail, so there's no need to use a kaboom for one IMO. Also, with two kabooms, if mafia use a hitman, then have the don kill with kaboom, then have a kill with kaboom + manipulate the press, mafia can get through most of game without investigators or invulnerables ever being a danger.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 4:12 pm 
re: fmajluf7's message to lilychen... I guess players tend to let their defenses drop when they feel like they're in a bad position already. I know I was very guilty of this last game (though for different reasons).

In other speculations, the dgrazian-Ama pairing is likely to get one of Lily and asjm caught if they aren't careful to make crossed kills, regardless of manipulation tricks. With tsims having asjm on his conspiracy list (for now at least), asjm doesn't have that many safe kill options. Looks like lgunder is probably getting killed tonight, which is kind of sad because I wanted to see cynic powers triggered for once :P and also wanted to see the camera-CCTV mechanic in action. Oh well, we'll see what happens.

--Posting in the Graveyard


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:07 pm 
It's also possible fmajluf7 will get killed. She's the only investigator, but I think in this game setup, cynics might actually be stronger than investigators. There are going to be a lot of kills with bad investigation results; hitman, don, frame, and MtP, whereas getting immunity via cynic seems much easier (although there's also the matter of getting yourself targeted). For quick cynic immunity, just put Dgrazian on your list!

Also, investigators/superheroes have an especially awful pitfall in this game; they have to pick a proxy. A single leaked role in this game is very powerful for mafia, and with a high likelihood of your proxy dying (forcing you to reveal to someone else), I wonder if investigators might actually do worse than vanilla townies. That would be an odd event...


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:08 pm 
Also, out of curiosity, is the CCTV set up yet? If so, what location was picked?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:26 pm 
Miranda just put a camera in ec courtyard, but the corresponding cctv is already in mafia hands


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 6:40 pm 
So here's what happened at the meeting:

lgunder was there at the beginning but left very early; the petition signers were there the whole time, though Ama arrived a bit late.
-tsims saw asjm on his floor last night and thought he was acting sketchy, emailed Ama and lgunder about it
-fmajluf7 investigated Miranda for Lucy and got a positive result
-Miranda put the camera in EC courtyard
-dgrazian said lilychen was acting more sketchy than usual, said he suspected Miranda of being the kind of person to sneak to ET and make the kill
-fmajluf7 pulled dgrazian aside to tell him the investigation result
-dgrazian asked people for mayor/PO suggestions. Everyone at the meeting except fmajluf7 was suggested
-Miranda wanted dgrazian to go with her to ET to gather clues (or pretend to do so), dgrazian agreed at first but changed his mind, left discussing with fmajluf7 "why would they frame miranda rather than fmajluf7?"

Seems that not knowing the exact set of mafia powers is making mapping things out trickier.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Tue Jul 14, 2015 7:29 pm 
Interesting. Now that Dgrazian thinks asjm is sketchy, I bet he'd investigate him if he kills Ama. Which, as a gay knight investigation, would see through the don power. That would be interesting.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 7:02 am 
Hi, fellow incorporeals! Thoughts so far:

1. DGrazian was my primary accuser, and then my primary defender. Half-sarcastic thanks a lot. I think we almost wound up in a feedback loop of "your suspicion of me is sketchy".

2. All my thoughts about where to put the camera, and the Mafia had the CCTV. Grumble grumble.

3. Dammit I wanted to use my role.

4. My only lynch vote of the game was for a mafia, score!

5. DGrazian and Ama as gay knights is really good since they're both high priority targets with a lot of guessing skill and other investigatory ability respectively. Lots of hope that one of them can successfully avenge the other.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 9:35 am 
Welcome, DGrazian! How much of your suspicions did you tell Ama before you died?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:01 am 
Here was my progression (which leaves out a lot of subtlety and complications):


1. When Francesca first told me about her positive investigation my initial thought was 50-50. I already thought that hire a hitman had probably been used, but I did think that if anybody would have made an investigatable kill, it would have been Miranda (she lives far away and could legitimately hope not to be investigated.) Then again, I didn't trust Francesca.

I was also absolutely convinced at this point that at least one of Miranda, lily, and Francesca were mafia. Miranda soon became pair wise mutually exclusive with the others because they both wanted to lynch her.

2. I kept thinking about it over the course of the meeting, Andy peek probability that Miranda was mafia (reached around 7pm) was 60%. I thought it was reasonably likely that she was a lone mafia and was trying to conscript me by getting me to go to et with her for 'investigations'. My assessment just went down and down from there.

3. By 10:15, my assessment was down to 35%, just high enough to still want to lynch her. She wasn't responding to my call to lynch her, and when I finally texted her to tell her what was happening, her response seemed believable.

4. By 10:50, I was thoroughly convinced that making an investigatable kill was wrong, and I didn't think Miranda would make such a bad play. I had recently gotten a god-clarification that don was in the game. My internal probability was just 30% that Miranda was mafia despite the positive investigation, but even this was too high given the evidence. Anyway, I voted no-lynch and tried to convince gay-knight-partner-mayor to switch her vote. I thought that would be enough, because nobody posted on the forum to say they were voting. I was also simultaneously juggling conversations with Francesca, Ama, and lily which kept me from driving harder. But Ama either disagreed or didn't switch in time. It wouldn't have mattered anyway, because the vote was 7-1 against Miranda. And I didn't have enough time to post my 60% formulated thoughts for why Miranda was probably innocent.

5. After day end, my assessment of Miranda's guilt dropped below 20% (below game average!) as I finished counting things out. Basically, I thoroughly convinced myself that there was absolutely no reason whatsoever for the mafia to make an investigatable kill. Hence Miranda was framed. I posted about this in the town square.

6. As a side note, as of the next morning, I was 60+% sure that lily was mafia and 30% sure that Francesca was. I made it very clear to Ama that I believed lily to be mafia, and I told Francesca that lily was likely mafia if she herself wasn't (I wasn't as forthcoming to Francesca though, because I didn't trust her, and I fully trusted Ama.) Francesca seems thoroughly convinced that lily is mafia though, based on her texts to me :-)

I didn't think lily would kill me right then and there in our bed though :-( I though I would die later in the day.

Sent from iPhone - apologies for any spelling/syntax errors.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:06 am 
I told her what should be enough. My last texts to her, sent at 9:10 am this morning:

'I believe lilychen is mafia.'
'Francesca is if lily is not. They might both be. But I think lily is.'

I didn't have time to go into extensive psychological reasons. That was supposed to be a stopgap, before I layed out more extensive accusations against lily. But I thought it should be enough in the case that I died in the next hour, before I had the opportunity to do so.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:57 am 
Yeah, I think it's over for lily as soon as Ama is awake (and realizes her GN investigations are infallible and none of her investigations need clues). Lily's attempt to divert attention to fmajluf7 is, I think, way too overdone.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 10:59 am 
Two things I'm proud of this game:

1. Basically figuring out that lily was mafia, and being reasonably confident that hitman was used.

2. Getting Ama 'arbitrarily' elected mayor.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:00 am 
Thing I'm not proud of:

Not decisively stopping the Miranda lynch mob.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:07 am 
Oh, the mafia used set-a-trap on Ama for investigator.

I'll take the small wins :-)


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 11:16 am 
Also, your getting Ama elected was really smooth. I never suspected you had more information about her than the rest of us did.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:14 pm 
No way Lily is getting out of a lynch tonight. Ama has 3 freaking investigations available today; no way she's not going to bust Lily when you just told her your suspicions. Also, Lily might just get gay-knight smited.

I'm not sure if asjm will be able to make it through the rest of the game. The kill mafia lost yesterday is pretty dangerous for him. However, he has a don kill for tomorrow, and if day 4 rolls around, there may very well be only 1 townsperson left for the lynch vote(6 players now, minus two lynches, minus two kills), in which case game is up to a tiebreaker or a coin flip. So he probably doesn't have to worry about investigations for the rest of game. He might hit cynic lgunder, conspiracy theorist tsims, or a medkit, but he also has 1 kaboom left, so he'd have to hit them on the wrong day. I think the biggest threat to him is having suspicion land on him for no good reason.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:39 pm 
For what it's worth, I think that numerically, this is an overwhelmingly mafia-biased game (80-90% chance of mafia win)

The difficulty for the mafia is in physically making kills when the players are from disparate locations. I think it's rather unfortunate that this is how the game is balanced, but I don't have a good solution.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:40 pm 
I sure as hell hope that there is no way lily gets out of being lynched tonight. Town has no excuse.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:43 pm 
If the mafia manage to make asjm mayor at the meeting today, they'll have four votes vs. four remaining townies. If someone is confused into voting wrong or not voting, they could force a win tonight if they were willing to risk everything on it. Speaking of which, what happened to the impeachment petitions that I died holding? Are they dead with me, or did someone pull me off the metaphorical gallows and go through my pockets?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:49 pm 
Here's what I imagine happening at the meeting tonight:

Lily: "So Ama, we're going to impeach you as mayor, what do you think about that?"
Ama: "Hmm, my opinion is... KABOOM!" *taps Lily's shoulder*


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 12:53 pm 
That would be beautiful! I think Ama has everything she needs. I just hope she follows through!


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:20 pm 
Looking at the game log, it seems that investigations and the results thereof don't show up. Gods, in the interest of spectral popcorn-munching, would you let us know who Ama investigates and when?


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:29 pm 
What Miranda is saying is consistent with my assertion of an overwhelming mafia advantage (considering only abilities and mechanics)


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:33 pm 
Ama has emailed asking for an investigation on fmajluf7 with her mayoral powers.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:35 pm 
Investigation results should show up. There was a long string of bugs yesterday due to hitman kills not being counted as murders, which is why none have shown up in the game log so far. Good thing that was the first kill or people would've suspected something was off...

I'm afraid of Ama deciding to wait until tomorrow before using her guesses (or forgetting that she has them) - that would be potentially really bad. Also, apparently the mafia count was an accident which we offered to reverse (since it gave virtually no information), but by that point she'd already told DGrazian. I really don't think impeaching her at this point just for another count is a smart idea for town.

EDIT: Ama just emailed us asking to investigate fmajluf7 for DanielGrazian using mayoral. Hopefully she uses the GN ones more wisely...

EDIT2: Yeah, what Jakob said :P


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:46 pm 
No it most definitely isn't. It was a silly idea that I had, that I would be very unlikely to follow through on.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 1:50 pm 
I think the fmajluf7 -> Dgrazian investigation was a reasonable move, given that she didn't know manipulate the press was used. She's probably going to investigate Lily next, but a normal Lily -> Dgrazian would have probably been too risky. Definitely if fmajluf7 investigates the murder and finds 0 clues, Lily will end up on the chopping block.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:37 pm 
If I was Ama and I was being smart that day, I'd use my fallible mayor investigation on the less likely killer and a gay knight investigation on the more likely. Then if they were inconsistent I could use the second gay knight investigation to check. Also, would it be kosher for gods to send Ama a notice saying "you have 2 investigations and a death time of X"? IIRC that's what they did when I was a gay knight.


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 Post subject: Re: Thoughts on game
PostPosted: Wed Jul 15, 2015 2:39 pm 
Yeah, that makes sense.

Also, WHOOO this just happened:

Ama investigates fmajluf7 for the death of DanielGrazian (answer: Wrong) July 15, 2015, 3:06 p.m.
Ama investigates fmajluf7 for the death of DanielGrazian (answer: Wrong) July 15, 2015, 3:34 p.m.
Ama investigates lilychen for the death of DanielGrazian (answer: Correct) July 15, 2015, 3:35 p.m.

Let's see what happens now :)


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