Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:20 pm 
First of all, my spreadsheets: ... edit#gid=0 ... 1036477553
I stopped updating the first one a few days into game. My activity log is also somewhat out of date.

Lololol, lzahray's kill on Lucy which I thought was bad was actually good. I was pretty sure that if my theory (3 Chinese w/ non-Chinese double agent, 3 non-Chinese w/ Chinese double agent) had predictive power, then it was probably true. And it correctly predicted both that Anpere was the double agent and that Jingyi was the remaining Chinese spy, so I figured it was super likely that ajliu was actually the double agent as well.

I did hear from kmath that Dgrazian told her that Lucy was the double agent, and seemed pretty confident. This made me less sure of my theory, but I didn't trust that info too much, because given that Dgrazian was blackmailed, the Chinese had every incentive to lie to him. I did get Pravina to check to confirm Lucy's goals, and she told me that Lucy DID have Russian goals. Kmath also told me that Pravina told lzahray the same thing, AFTER lzahray and I were no longer aligned, so I figured it was probably true. Oreo also checked ajliu and confirmed that she DIDN'T have Russian goals (I gave this less weight though, because I figured it also might pop up with her zombie goals instead). So I ended game pretty confident that Lucy wasn't the double agent.

Other reasons, other than my "aok is racist" theory that was ALMOST completely accurate, from which I initially concluded that ajliu was the double agent:
1. Lzahray told me she came back after she was killed, which made me think ajliu lied about her role (at this point we didn't know about any other zombies.
2. I was initially most suspicious of jessk, second most suspicious of ajliu, and least suspicious of Lucy. So my gut reaction to becoming not-suspicious of jessk was to become way more suspicious of ajliu.
3. Lzahray said that she got a shovel, but not a blackmail, off of ajliu's body. This made me think that ajliu had given her blackmail to the Chinese to use, especially given that the Chinese seemed to have access to a lot of blackmails.
4. I also knew that Anpere started with a blackmail. So I figured that if item assignment was similar between Chinese and Russians, then if the Russian double agent had a blackmail, then the Chinese double agent ALSO probably had a blackmail. Little did I know that Lucy actually had a blackmail too.

I didn't particularly think ajliu had started the "ksedlar is mafia" plan. I just used that as an excuse for why I wanted her lynched.

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 6:26 pm 
Also, wow, so the only point at which Russians were winning was today. O.O

My main comment for the game:
Gah, I'm so frustrated that my brainwasher didn't work properly! It was such an awesome item! Gah!

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:28 pm 
We were so close to Lucy getting herself "lynched" yesterday and (possibly) winning for the Chinese :P

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 8:57 pm 
In other news:

I'm really impressed by how well you managed to take control of the flow of game. You played very well, a fact that was pretty annoying to face when e.g. we found ourselves unable to steer any killers to our side except for brief stretches of time. There were only a few things you got wrong, and taking advantage of those things basically became our only hope for a chance at winning. I did die on day 2 though; I can't say if anything would've happened differently / I would've felt differently about things if I had stayed alive.

Ultimately, other than seeing our team somehow win, the next most interesting thing I'd have liked to see happen would've been lzahray (or someone else with the ring if she died) winning. Kind of disappointed game ended the way it did, but I know it was getting taxing for you emotionally, so it's probably good that it's over.

There are still a lot of things I'm curious about, which will hopefully be discussed in detail at wrap-up.

Also, you made Jakob get killed :'( </2

But Jakob won :)

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:17 pm 
Yep. Due to post/pm timing and my estimated likelihood of who knew PHP, he was top on my list of suspects, so my fake mafia account told mysteriousrogue to kill him.

I also thought I made you get killed, even though that was just a complete coincidence. Ishara (mysteriousrogue) was worried you'd catch her for Jakob's death, and you were second on my Chinese spy suspicion list, so I told the mafia to kill you (pretending to be a rogue myself). However, I actually told the East Side mafia, and the West Side killed you, so it was total luck.

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 9:52 pm 
Lolol. Just finished reading the Chinese spy forum. I REALLY hadn't realized how well I tricked the Chinese into thinking I was their double agent. I figured that I was at best adding a little bit of confusion and uncertainty. My plan had been to keep playing the part until I was ready to wipe out the Chinese / I didn't want to reveal any more important information, which is what I did.

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:16 pm 
Oh yeah, it turns out, I sort of knew where all the Hallows were in the game. I knew that Jess had a magic stone that let her talk to the dead, I knew that kmath (formerly tsims, later me) had a magic cloak that made you immune to kabooms/bangs, and I knew that fmajluf7 was making kills despite being a vampire. The cloak was the only one I realized was actually a Hallow, though I probably should have figured out that the magic stone was too given that it was labelled "magic" in the same way the cloak was labelled "magic."

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:17 pm 
How did you / other people figure out the illuminati win conditions, if at all?

PostPosted: Thu Nov 12, 2015 11:49 pm 
This one person (Dylan?) posted them on town square. Mads also told me about the win condition of getting two illuminati in elected positions.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 4:18 am 
Dylan was seer. He got somebody's win conditions. I forgot who he checked but whoever it was was an illuminati

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 8:13 am 
I used my seer power on regirock. I posted most of what I knew as friendly traveler, mostly so people would know not to elect an illuminati as village idiot and end the game.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 1:46 pm 
Ksedlar was truly the godfather. It was amazing how much power and influence you had without even having any significant mechanical abilities.

You were really, really impressive.

PostPosted: Fri Nov 13, 2015 2:10 pm 
By end of game, I knew the role of everyone, dead or alive, except asjm and kmli (plus switching around Lucy and ajliu as Chinese double agent vs Russian spy, and not knowing what specific kind of WTF lzahray was). By day 2 I knew that there were no townspeople. I knew the groups of 90% of game by day 3. For every kill except Anpere's (where Francesca would have been one of my top two investigations), I knew who made the kill by the next day at latest. By the end of day 2 I had dirt on both rogues, and at least one mafia from both sides. I survived 3 attempted kills on me using just two medkits. I managed to live 7 days when my average lifespan is less than 3, and every time I checked, there were several people whose #1 priority was to have me dead. It was pretty great.

The unfortunate thing is that I hadn't realized Lucy was the double agent. There were an enormous number of coincidences / unrelated actions that led me away from that conclusion, as I mentioned in my initial post here. For instance, with the number of roles I didn't know, there was a 1/5 or 1/6ish chance of Jingyi being a Chinese spy. I had no reason to suspect her over any of the other people I didn't know the role of, except for that she fit with my "aok is racist" theory (that aok made Russians three ethnically non-Chinese people with an ethnically Chinese double agent and the Chinese three ethnically Chinese people with an ethnically non-Chinese double agent). So when jessk revealed that Jingyi WAS a Chinese spy, it looked way more likely that ajliu was also the double agent.

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