Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Thoughts on the ijc kill
PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 2:10 am 
I'm pretty certain that one of fmajluf7, nastya, ltchin, jakob, and me (from a global perspective) is mafia. That party was a minefield of players wandering around; I in particular was specifically wandering through the floor and scouting for which players were around, because I thought there was a good likelihood that mafia would try to make a kill at the party, given that they hadn't made a kill all day and it was the last scheduled event anyone had. Ltchin was also sitting on the floor on the south side of the party, so no one could have entered from that end without walking past her.

Basically, a player wandering in there would have been very likely seen if they went in blind. So with very high probability, either one of the 5 of us made the kill, or was co-conspirator with another mafia who did make the kill (texting another mafia directions is very legit). The killer also could have theoretically been Andy Tsai, who is the only player I can't recognize and I would thus not have noticed (though I think nastya would have, so probably not). There also could have just been a lucky mafia who wandered in through the middle door, because ijc was the most easily findable player from that entrance location, in which case this analysis is less relevant.

I think it is unlikely that ltchin was a co-conspirator. Being one requires a lot of texting beforehand, and she was consistently talking with someone else at several points around that time whenever I checked. I also think nastya probably wasn't, because she doesn't have a phone. I'm unsure about Jakob; was not there for that long at that time. I was wandering around, saw him, went to get nastya (she had asked me to introduce her to the other players at the party), and then he was gone. So I don't even know if he would have seen that ijc was there. So basically if there was a co-conspirator mafia, it was most likely fmajluf7. However, fmajluf7 was being stalked (like me), so she is less likely to have made the kill herself.

Other relevant info: I think that the ijc kill is probably uninvestigable; mafia have a good incentive to use don or manipulate the press day 1, because it wastes a day of tempo for all investigators. Don in particular lets mafia have more total uninvestigable kills, so it's very nice to use. It looks a lot like ijc was the mafia kill and jfrisch was the serial killer kill (Sammy's claim about aok's text suggests that a guilty aok is serial killer, plus serial killer wants to make their kill after mafia make theirs).

I don't think it's worth specifically lynching anyone at this point, especially because this group includes experienced, active players plus the mayor, but when it gets to the end game and a lot of us are dead, just remember that the set {me, fmajluf7, nastya, ltchin, jakob} probably contains a mafia. Also, there's a good chance the ijc kill won't give any real leads, so investigators should keep that in mind.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 8:32 am 
I posted this on the alibi thread, but I don't believe your claim as much that there has to be a mafia in the EC-party group set. It is not as hard to kill someone at a party, but in fact, quite easy to pretend to be there because parties have tons of people and an excuse to be at some place you usually aren't.

For example, tsims is not on your list. He lives on 4E and his only alibi is "playing DotA". It would have been very easy for him between games to just walk down the staircase, look for any easy kill of convenience, and then dart back up. If he gets spotted, he can pretend that he was just going for a drink. If he doesn't, he can just go back, play another round of DotA and then try again later.

This is not to single out tsims in particular, but just to point out that your list is not foolproof. Mafia could also coordinate with the tons of NPCs who are at the party in order to gain access to EC.

Sure, you should definitely elevate your suspicion levels of us (as you should of anyone who is near a kill site), but not enough to say "this set contains at least one scum". I expect there to be a kill at the Bonfire party tonight.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:58 am 
I just think that a kill NOT by one of those people would have required a lot of luck. I was specifically looking for players at the party at that time, and I also asked the NP Erons (whom Ian had been talking to for a bit at the party) if he saw anything, and he hadn't. So IMO because a kill coordinated by a non-list-member would require a lot of extra luck, the probability they did it is much lower.

Tsims I didn't see come down to the party until significantly later. He also had said that Jakob went by his room a few times around when the kill happened and saw that he was there. So I think he's less sketchy.

That said, it seems pretty likely that Ian was a kill of convenience rather than a specific target. While he's a good player, he is less experienced than me, fmajluf7, or ltchin, and is not a mayor like nastya. So that might make a lucky mafia slightly more likely.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:08 pm 
I was walking around with ksedlar and we were looking for mafia players because I wanted to see people I'm playing with. However, we only saw ijc and fmajluf7, so I believe that there is a good chance that another player could have come down and killed ijc without being noticed, especially if that player is not very well known and was looking for an easy quick kill and left immediately. Additionally, you wouldn't see players immediately, so even being seen at a party after the kill is not too good alibi. I spent quite a while at the party before I met ksedlar, a player who was at the party for a shorted period of time could have left unnoticed.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 12:11 pm 
Another thought. I think I and ksedlar kinda protected each other because we were together basically all the time I was at the party, so it might be a good idea to stay in groups with other players (obviously, assuming you trust those players that they will not kill you).

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