Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:59 am 
Not in the day 5 plotting (darn) thread because this is overarching. Also written in a snarky tone because I feel snarky today.

There are currently 16 townies and 2 mafia alive. 1 townie (fmajluf7) dies at day end today.

Assuming neither of us gets lynched or tased by the end of day 7 (which seems difficult), here's how we can win by the end of day 7:

Day 5
-Poison two people (not GNs) tonight, preferably people hard to kill and not likely to be lynched, and not likely to become dictators once they are poisoned, but active enough to sometimes vote.

-Set a trap on someone, but don't kill them.

-Kill someone else (not sure whether this should be a GN. Probably not, unless we make 2 kills today and I kill the GN to avoid them investigating you and breaking through don powers).

-Get an ET sketchball lynched.

-(optional) if there's an ET vig sketchball, have them kill a different ET conscript-bait sketchball (Alex? achester?) and then get lynched.

This gets us down to 2 v. <= 13.

Day 6

-Trap-kill someone, kill the other person we trapped yesterday, have me scheme-kill someone, slaughter-kill someone, and then make a regular kill. These five people should include 1 GN from each pair (jessk, andytsai?) unless they were previously killed.

* -Somehow magically avoid getting lynched, lynch a townie instead; also, don't get investigated by either GN, or at least don't let them kill us. (this is the ??? step before the PROFIT)

This gets us down to 2 v. 7.

Day 7

-Trap-kill someone, slaughter-kill someone, and make a regular kill.

* -Again, somehow avoid being lynched, though this is optional if EVERYTHING else is done perfectly.

The poisoned people and GN people die at the end of the day, bringing us down to >=1 v. 0.

Woohoo. We have a provable win in 3 days if all 16 townies remain accessible, motionless, and unable to kill/tase/smartly vote from now until the end of day 7.

Problems:
- The ??? step. It's very unclear how we're going to not get lynched after killing like a billion people. And if they lynch, e.g. achester, we still lose a kill. So maybe this is too ambitious a strategy and we should lie low. But there aren't enough sketchy people to make that work for long enough (though we can frame Tuan for something and I can back out of my psych trust of him, or something, to bide time).

-Tasers. There are many of them, and once we start rampaging I don't see how to avoid them perfectly, unless we get rid of them first somehow. Though I guess this is a strictly smaller problem than getting lynched, except for on day last.

-Players are [gasp!] not actually fixed points. They move around, skip classes, run away from you, hide in rooms, and generally resist being killed in a combinatorial game fashion. It seems very unlikely we'll actually get to find all the people we need to kill each day, without messing up the ??? step or the anti-taser step.

-People are going to find it weird that I'm alive and lynch me even if I don't do anything bad. I could claim poison with the 2 other people, but this immediately raises beefy problems that I don't want to deal with.

Good news
-Some townies may just never become active again if not poked hard enough. Maybe we don't have to get the townie count down to 0 to win. So maybe if we're calmer about things, people will just lynch themselves eventually. Maybe.

And now I go do my psets as nastya reads this, laughs at my silliness, and gives feedback. But, this is probably way too fragile a plan, and we should stick to something traditional and not blitzy that nastya is going to come up with:


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