Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Town is in bad shape.
PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 3:20 am 
I suspect (unless town catches a mafia today) they will be in a very severe losing position after the end of the day. Mafia are a skilled set of players and therefore, unless anything goes wrong will win the game handily. In particular if town doesn't find a mafia by the end of day and lynches aok end of day 2 results they will not be in a good position. Of course, this partially depends on abilities used.

-4 townies (including katie) -1 serial killer). Is not a bad trade off to make (at all) for mafia. Mafia can successfully avoid making an investigable kill until day 5. Well after many of the experienced players have been killed off. These kills are also Framable which under the reasonable kill them both strategy, is still not great. Also townie roles and abilities are pretty nerfed this game.

Conditioned on aok being lynched tonight I give mafia an 80% chance of victory.

If on the otherhand a mafia is caught today (especially jakob who seems most likely to be caught, I suspect he's more likely to make a kill than Daniel) Game will open up considerably.

Tldr town started game 2/3 of a mafia behind and got a very strong mafia draw, they need a mafia to be killed ASAP if they want a chance at winning.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:24 am 
I'm glad to hear your assessment; that's interesting, because it wasn't my perception.

Mafia (even experienced players) screw up more often than you're giving them credit for. And there's already suspicion on jakob for a kill he didn't even make.

Factors that I thought would balance the experience of mafia (and why they probably now won't):
- nastya is new (however she seems to be very active and playing well)
- there are a lot of provable innocents (but it looks like mafia will get in on this by claiming GNs)
- ksedlar is desperado (on expectation I think she takes > 0.5 mafia with her) (but it looks like this game she'll take 0)
- town has some heavy investigation power (though this requires mafia giving them a chance to use it)

I think mafia are not using nastya's mayor powers optimally. She should already have used Count the Mafia so a townie can't have it later, and reported a false result suggesting conscription has been used. She also should have used her investigation to check whether aok was the killer of jfrisch, instead of using it on the ijc kill; she already knows the ijc kill results and can make up an answer, while really finding out if aok is their SK.

Then again, nguyenin is not using his PO powers optimally yet either; has he even submitted a watch list?


PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 10:16 pm 
jfrisch, is this still your opinion? imo this was a pretty sad no-kill day since town already had a good lynch target and the bonfire party would've been a prime opportunity. Also, missing out on the gay children network is really bad; if dgrazian had seen jakob's post I think he would've claimed with nastya.

PostPosted: Sat Apr 16, 2016 11:20 pm 
I think town is fine. They have public access to my spreadsheet ( ... edit#gid=0), on which all the mafia are above-average sketch, and all players with above average sketch are either mafia, innocent children, or gay knights! Mafia have made a single kill (which made 2 of their members look sketchy, plus an innocent child and a gay knight), plus a town/serial killer trade. I'm also an extra town dead, but there is a secure IC network set up, so that maybe balances?

Town is also pretty active overall, and critically thinking through things. I have high hopes.

PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 12:08 am 
I think we are ok :D

PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 1:11 am 
Yeah, mafia are definitely losing at this point. The game isn't even close to being over, but town is at a strong advantage.

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