Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 10:31 pm 
Nastya is on her way to floorpi, presumably to conscript sammyluo


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Mon Apr 18, 2016 11:18 pm 
Sammy's so sad now. And worried about how to kill people at ET. I don't know if he appreciated my "Past Sammy vs Current Sammy ultimate showdown!" comment.

In other news, Francesca emailed Peckerites to ask if anyone saw who killed Isaac, and Shi-Ke helpfully responded, "Daniel Garzian." To which I responded, "Don't be silly, it's spelled Daniel Garzien. And to answer your question, no comment no comment." Lol.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:06 am 
Wow, the mafia's spreadsheet of evil role info is now almost completely full. And Sammy's has an idea that the remaining 3 roles are {investigator, priest, desperado}. Now they only have to make the kills... On the plus side, nastya can make a don kill tomorrow, because her "stalker" was Dgrazian.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 12:35 am 
Wow, look at Sammy getting started on good mafia plotting. RIP all his psets. He's probably going to be sad to learn that nastya claimed vigilante. Though I think a priest claim would also be bad, because it would look a bit weird with nastya not having triggered yet. I also am not sure if he noticed that Miranda is an investigator. Or that nastya can make a don kill tomorrow.

Also, wtf, why does Sammy know Tuan's watch list? There's no reason to ever reveal that info...

sammyluo wrote:
I guess I should've tried harder not to gain all the information, but I couldn't help myself... after all, who would conscript ME?! On day 5?!!!!!


I just find this whole quote really amusing.

In other news, town MIGHT not shovel Dgrazian. They only have one shovel left, after all. In which case Sammy could be less worried. Francesca is pretty on top of her shit though, so they probably will.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:16 am 
Lol wtf why does Sammy know which people are GNs and which are ICs? Like he even knows who the partners are... last I heard from him he just knew "innocent" i.e. GN or IC.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 1:43 am 
Having actually worked it out, Mafia are not in as bad a position as I thought. In particular, if nastya makes one non-sketchy kill tomorrow and they convince town to lynch jordanh, and then they use a bunch of powers tomorrow evening, things could go like this:

Day 5:
kill maxmurin (don kill)
fmajluf7 dies of heartbreak
get jordanh lynched

Day 6:
poison Lucy; sammy claims poison to avoid suspicion
slaughter ltchin
trap jessk
kill Alex
get sashacf lynched

Day 7:
slaughter achester
trap nguyenin
kill brunnerj
scheme Miranda Gavrin
Lucy dies of poison
andytsai dies of heartbreak
csvoss dies of heartbreak
lynch ajliu (loses tiebreaks bc voted for herself)
TOWN ARE DEAD

Obviously this is a bit optimistic, but I think they could certainly pull off the day 5 stuff, and then have nastya make all the day 6 kills; it is admittedly probable that she'd get caught, but clever frames could obscure things. And even if she gets lynched, if sammy manages to make all the day 7 kills and not get lynched the next day he can kill off one more person on day 8. He'd look better for having claimed poison at the same time as Lucy.

What do you guys think? Am I being overly ambitious with this plan? Do mafia have a shot if they *don't* go for it?

--jamb


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 8:44 am 
I think it's plausible, but mafia have a tough road ahead. Seems to me that this plan is contingent on successfully manipulating the GCSN, avoiding nastya's impeachment, and making perfect kills, each of which seems difficult at this point. Francesca should hopefully realize in a day or two that Sammy hasn't been killed yet and is a perfect conscription target, and will hopefully push to lynch him. And the network should realize soon that they ought to impeach nastya and elect someone from among themselves.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 9:34 am 
lilychen wrote:
Francesca should hopefully realize in a day or two


That'd better be one day and not two :P

In case anyone's wondering, she guessed Miranda Gavrin and David Kaufman, so she's not bang immune.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:38 am 
Poor kmath. She really wanted to be a hitman, but not only did she not get picked, she wasn't even investigated as an option.

Also, they could trap someone else today, and just kill that person later. You can only set one trap per day, but they have two traps. Which gives them an extra kill in the plan.

That said, I don't know how they would ever get sashacf lynched before nastya. Even Jordanh will be tricky. Especially if they aren't able to make kills at ET. (I do think it is reasonable for gods to let players in secretly, given that lots of players are on Jackie's guest list at Random. But gods certainly can't scout or anything, which is pretty vital.) This plan also leaves Lucy alive until the end of game, and I don't think she'd let that stuff slide.

Also, the GCSN do know that nastya claimed vigilante...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:44 am 
How/when did nastya claim vigilante to the network? I must have missed that.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:48 am 
Via me. She sent the message after my deadline of 10:25 (at 10:52), but luckily I had been knocked out in the LARP boss battle, so I had a moment to check forums again, and I passed that info to ltchin and achester.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:17 am 
Also, Sammy just came up with virtually the same kind of plan to end game, except with a real poison instead of himself claiming poison, and with the extra trap kill I previously mentioned.

I'm going to be really impressed if mafia can pull this off. In particular, this game will have basically been two time-displaced Sammys fighting against one another and the more recent Sammy winning. (Obviously discounting a lot of other fantastic players, but more fun to summarize this way).


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:22 am 
sammyluo wrote:
Not really a schedule update, but an out-of-game note: I've been spending my entire weekend on mafia and not doing the n items of work I need to do. I really need to do these n items of work. So I'm going to try not to be as involved with mafia stuff tomorrow. Poke me if you really need my opinion on something, but I think we're in good shape, and we should be good to go (as long as the GCSN stays well-organized, which I'm sure it will).


Oh, this lie. This is the worst type of lie to have to make, because it really is supposed to be true, but it probably won't be.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 11:30 am 
I do think it is important for mafia to make some sort of kill at ET today, or at least tomorrow. Otherwise they're going to have a tough time getting ET people lynched (and a lot of the sketchy people are at ET). That said, ET kills will be the hardest type possible; even being seen in the building will be hugely sketchy, and they would definitely need an NP guide to scout. I'm also guessing Sammy has been to ET a couple times, but nastya hasn't been there at all. Which makes stuff worse, because they won't even know where stuff is. I would find it hard to kill someone at ET myself, and I know everyone there well and once lived there for a summer.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:29 pm 
ksedlar wrote:
I do think it is important for mafia to make some sort of kill at ET today, or at least tomorrow. Otherwise they're going to have a tough time getting ET people lynched (and a lot of the sketchy people are at ET). That said, ET kills will be the hardest type possible; even being seen in the building will be hugely sketchy, and they would definitely need an NP guide to scout. I'm also guessing Sammy has been to ET a couple times, but nastya hasn't been there at all. Which makes stuff worse, because they won't even know where stuff is. I would find it hard to kill someone at ET myself, and I know everyone there well and once lived there for a summer.


Agreed that Gods can let people in but not scout. Should we offer to the mafia to give them some ET NP contact info, since they know pretty much no one at ET? (This seems like a major oversight on Dgrazian's part given how many Thetans he could've contacted while alive.)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:30 pm 
ksedlar wrote:
sammyluo wrote:
Not really a schedule update, but an out-of-game note: I've been spending my entire weekend on mafia and not doing the n items of work I need to do. I really need to do these n items of work. So I'm going to try not to be as involved with mafia stuff tomorrow. Poke me if you really need my opinion on something, but I think we're in good shape, and we should be good to go (as long as the GCSN stays well-organized, which I'm sure it will).


Oh, this lie. This is the worst type of lie to have to make, because it really is supposed to be true, but it probably won't be.


Yeah... it also makes sammy seem real sketchy for requesting GCSN access... on the plus side if he gets that he can warn nastya that they know she's a vig claimant.... if she claims something else she's screwed.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 2:57 pm 
I don't think gods should give ET NP contact info. I think Dgrazian said they should contact Daniel Palumbo, but he didn't seem to give any sort of phone number or anything. Anyway though, I think that was Dgrazian's job.

Also, Sammy at least has gchat contacts for a lot of NPs from the Tragedy Looper game. Nastya doesn't have a phone, so I imagine that it would be darn near impossible for her to make a kill at ET even if she did have someone's contact info.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 4:11 pm 
I agree gods shouldn't give np contact info. But I mentioned Daniel Palumbo, which should be equivalent to giving contact info. They can just lookup his kerberos!


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:25 pm 
Daniel Grazian wrote:
I agree gods shouldn't give np contact info. But I mentioned Daniel Palumbo, which should be equivalent to giving contact info. They can just lookup his kerberos!


Good point.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 5:35 pm 
fmajluf7 wrote:
Sammy requests to be added to the innocence den.

I support this, but it's up to you all.


This could be fun.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:13 pm 
fmajluf7 wrote:
Okay, I got my results. Daniel Grazian shoveled pure mafia. One of tsims or jakob had to be mafia, and aok was SK. Which means there's one original mafia and one conscripted mafia. Given this...

These are the people I trust 100% and advocate to not lynch:
- sammyluo
- ajliu

These are the people I trust more than average:
- andytsai
- csvoss
- nguyenin
- ltchin
- maxmurin
- jessk

These are the people I trust less than average:
- Alex
- brunnerj
- sashacf
- nastya
- Miranda Gavrin
- Lucy

These are the people I advocate lynching:
- jordanh
- achester

This list is not representative of what the rest of the GCSN thinks by no means. Just my own feelings.
Another thing to keep in mind: don't trust completely investigations/investigators. There are many frames and way too many claims of investigators.
I'd recommend impeaching nastya tomorrow and counting the mafia.


Muah ha ha ha.... Francesca is very obviously good and this post is REALLY good for mafia. Even taking into consideration the existence of a conscript, she absolutely believes in sammyluo. (Why is she so confident in ajliu?) Also, she agrees with me that achester seems sketchy.

Given this, the mafia should have little trouble getting jordanh lynched tonight. Assuming they make a kill and that Sammy continues not to sketch people out psychologically, they'd be in decent shape for the "blitz" plan Sammy proposed (~ the plan I proposed).

--jamb


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:15 pm 
Also, on the one hand I think Francesca clearly made an effort to obscure who was actually in the GCSN by moving people around a bit, but I don't think it was enough. I just don't see any reason to trust, say, ltchin over Lucy, or ajliu over the other inactives, unless they're GCS.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:27 pm 
I wouldn't go so far as advocating to lynch achester. Though I am really amazed that he has managed to go this whole time without mechanically confirming as IC.

I'm assuming ajliu and Sammy are there because Dgrazian is proven to be the single mafia stalker, and Lucy isn't because she's a decent conscription target and just hugely defended Dgrazian last night. I think fmajluf7 is operating under the reasoning that mafia probably used conscription early / wouldn't conscript Sammy because he's not good as mafia.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:35 pm 
Also, I think that 100% trust of ajliu is pretty reasonable (I would have said like 98% trust personally). Ajliu has never been mafia before at all, so she's an incredibly unlikely conscript.

I also think that given Francesca's knowledge that Sammy was critical in Jakob and Dgrazian's deaths, and the fact that he seemed very psychologically innocent to her as of like yesterday, Sammy can't be the conscript unless he was very recently conscripted. In most games (other than this year), conscript has been used at this point, so it's reasonable.

I really do think that Francesca has been playing very well (she was the first one to push for a Dgrazian lynch, as I recall, she was suspicious of Jakob early, she completely called the hitman kill, etc). In a world where mafia conscripted early, conscripted for mafia skill instead of knowledge, or whatever, she would be completely right to trust Sammy.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:35 pm 
Okay, sure, the ajliu thing makes sense. I guess she's still thinking the gay knights could be a mafia pair? (csvoss and andytsai would be horrible conscript targets, so that must be what she's thinking.)

I'm very much looking forward to seeing what Francesca thinks when she dies tonight and reads GY :)

(By the way Francesca, I think you've been doing an amazing job leading / proxying for the GCSN so far, and it's just bad luck for you that Sammy who was reading very innocent is now very mafia.)

--jamb


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:38 pm 
Lol, ksedlar and I posted at the same time :)

My point wasn't that Francesca shouldn't trust ajliu over the other inactives, it was that she shouldn't have said so because it makes it obvious ajliu is GCS. (Though, maybe this was obvious anyway from the stalker out of town situation.)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 6:48 pm 
I think Sammy should go on a beautiful (though secret) rampage through ET tomorrow, killing Alex and someone else. People will focus investigations and then probably lynch someone there. Maybe kill jessk(?). At that point, if mafia can make the kills they need, they can win.

Mafia will also need to figure out who to poison though.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 9:44 pm 
Aww, Sammy is so obviously completely punting his work to post and plan 10 billion things. I'm pretty much rooting for mafia at this point, now that Sammy has been conscripted...


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:20 pm 
So much inactivity... :-(


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 Post subject: Re: Day 5 Thoughts
PostPosted: Tue Apr 19, 2016 10:23 pm 
Anticipating a freakout by fmajluf7 in 3, 2, 1...


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