Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 5 Discussion
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 12:17 am 
And...


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:53 am 
I vote synch may be getting in the way of this game. If we have a third no death today, I will vote no lynch, partially out of pity for the mafia and partially because I don't think we have enough to lynch from.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:29 am 
Can't we just vote off an inactive instead?

Seems like we have some choices there (all from the voting spreadsheet)
tencate
wcheang
dbr
Caroline

kezi came to the Maseeh meeting today


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:31 am 
Woah, sorry Caroline, totally missed that you voted for Austin today! Nothing meant by it, I just f-ed up.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 3:52 am 
I am most likely with crockct on this one. Let's see how the first part of this day plays out.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:33 am 
We certainly could do that as well. To be honest though, the Fall 2011 game scared me a little from that plan. In that game, lynching inactives was the mafia's way of killing off the inactives that were hard to find.

Basically I see three possible reasons for why there would be a third no kill day. One is that synch is too in the way, either by there being too many mafia in synch to be focused on making kills or there being too many active townspeople in synch making killing hard. Therefore, the mafia is not making kills because the overlap is making it much harder for them to kill than it makes it for us. Reason 2 is that the mafia is simply a derpy enough group that they either don't have people who try hard enough to make kills anymore or they keep failing to find a good opportunity to make clean kills. Reason 3 is that this is an intentional, elaborate plan by them. They realize that we got 2 of their mafia so far making it dangerous for them to do anything that compromises any others. They also realize that we have about a 1/7 chance of killing a mafia if we chose a random lynch each day, which is pretty good in their favor. Thus they decide that they can be very careful about each remaining mafia kill, in order to ensure that each one gives us little to no information (especially with our useful investigators and microphone/receiver pairs). Then while they are not incriminating themselves, we are simply lynching ourselves off. Once the ratio is more balanced (or they kill to get the last fake id if it still survives through this), they then start using their increased influence to sway the vote away from themselves as they make more kills.

Based on the fact that all we have to go on is either A. someone is inactive so they won't mind if we kill them off, or B. "X has been really tricky and good and tricking us in previous games so whose to say they aren't doing it now??!!??," it seems like me that the majority of the rest of us townspeople will be voting in a semirandom manner while the mafia can easily nudge us away from voting off a mafia (as they are the only ones with real distinction between players) to get us to simply narrow down the playing field for them.

Either that or we simply have the synchrocity advantage which seems unfair to me. Thus I am opposed to killing off a random person at this point unless we have a mafia kill.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:05 pm 
That makes sense. Agreed because I think a mafia no-kill strategy would be a good one, especially in the beginning of the game.

Current Vote: No Lynch


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:06 pm 
Chewy is over at ET for a Lord of the Rings marathon. I don't think he's mafia, but posting here just in case. Xavier (jaxxson) is also watching, and Adam is doing things upstairs.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:07 pm 
Chewy Shaw wrote:
lynching inactives was the mafia's way of killing off the inactives that were hard to find.


Worth repeating.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 2:16 pm 
Lynching randomly favors townspeople. People often talk about the ratio of Mafia in the game, and while this is relevant to whether can Mafia swing votes as a bloc, it is not a good metric. As the game goes on, Mafia victims are all townies but lynch victims are only sometimes Mafia, so the ratio of Mafia grows. The goal is not to give Mafia a near-majority by the endgame. The more players left, the longer Mafia have to shift that ratio towards them.

So, Town is better off in a game with 2 Mafia out of 10 players than 6 Mafia out of 30 players, because in the latter that ratio will grow higher by the time there are 10 players left. Under a simple model where both kills and lynched are random, there are no special roles, and Mafia kill every day, the win probability in fact depends on the the ratio (Mafia)^2/Players in the limit, and this should be approximately valid for the ~30 players in this game (though finding the actual probability is beyond this model). If Mafia only kill on a fraction f of days, the factor goes down to (Mafia)^(1+f)/Players, lowering the Mafia's strength.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:18 pm 
Whatever we do, we want to be organized so that the lynch result is clear in advance. I have my own personal preference(s) in mind, but I'd like others to make some suggestions first. I'm moderately flexible on today's decision.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:20 pm 
I would be up for killing tencate (I suspect DBR is more likely to be involved in the game than tencate and have talked with him about the game (albeit on day one))


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:28 pm 
Alex wrote:
Lynching randomly favors townspeople.


DGrazian (sorry if i misspelled last name) explained this to me, so I agree. However, lynching inactives is not lynching randomly. Someone made the point that the mafia would probably get the other mafia involved, so I think it's less likely that mafia are inactive. Regardless, lynching inactive players is not lynching randomly.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:45 pm 
Agreed lynching inactives is not quite the same thing as lynching random people, I'm not convinced that being inactive is a clear sign of innocence though, its much easier to not be noticed as mafia if you rarely play than if you regularly do.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 7:48 pm 
You're right. Right now, I would like to hear lynching suggestions from others.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 8:16 pm 
I will also note that if anyone has a compelling argument of why a certain lynch should happen, I will definitely get behind it.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:01 pm 
The fact that there hasn't been any lynches in the last few days means the Mafia is lazy, hosed, or conscripted. In the first case or the last case, we really don't have much to work off of. In the second case, it is most likely due to the Guild game currently running. We'll probably see a murder tomorrow during game break.

Given that, if we want to lynch randomly, we should probably randomly pick from the pool of players in Synch, since the inaction of the Mafia seems to correlate to Synch actually running.

tl;dr: I don't know. If only someone would die, we could actually get some information.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:12 pm 
Is there anyone that anyone has any suspicions of? Preferably with evidence, although hunches are useful as well.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:15 pm 
Regarding Mafia inaction being correlated with Synch, I'd like to point out that there was a kill on one of the two Synch days and on one of the two non-Synch days.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:19 pm 
I think it is correct for the townspeople to lynch somebody each day, so for lack of a better idea, I am on board with the lynching inactives plan. My vote will be for tencate.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:36 pm 
Thank you Adam for offering a specific person. Anyone else want to give an alternative? If not, it looks like tenkate's going to learn the town's wrath.

I do not personally object to tenkate being lynched.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 9:48 pm 
I was the original suggestor of tencate btw, (you can check earlier on this thread)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:12 pm 
This is just about the last chance to select an alternative to tenkate.

I'd really like to hear people's general opinions.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:15 pm 
Due to me thinking that Synch making mafia unable to kill can make the game unbalanced, and I see that as the most likely scenario, I am going to vote no lynch.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:29 pm 
I agree that lynching randomly is more likely to benefit us than not lynching anyone. Pseudorandom lynching, I'm not quite as okay with, but still agree it's better than the alternative.

Voting for tenkate, and probably won't be online til after midnight, sorry.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:35 pm 
TenCate it is, for today. I hope we'll have more to go on tomorrow because this lynching inactives thing has definitely failed in the past.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:42 pm 
I actually think Sync makes kills easier, if anything. Sync takes place exclusively in publicly accessible locations, and potential victims are virtually guaranteed to be in game space for several hours each day.

There does seem to be a sort of informal code of honor discouraging mafia kills between Sync players while they are in-game, but there are plenty of ways for the mafia to get around even this.

My personal belief is that it is more likely that the mafia are less-experienced players, and that as a group they haven't yet developed the organization needed to routinely make good kills. I doubt it has much to do with Sync (post-game we'll see whether I'm right, I suppose.)

Also, a message to the mafia: If you would like to observe what has happened in the past to mafia who failed to make their daily kills, look at the first game of IAP 2010 (Hint: the mafia lost badly.)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:50 pm 
I'll agree with Daniel Grazian that Synch leaves mafia lots of opportunity to make kills. Multiple times I've been off alone with Synch players in Mafia who could have killed me without too much risk of it being known they did it.

I don't know whether it's because few Mafia are in Synch, or they feel bad killing while in-game in Synch, or they're not organized or interested enough to make kills. For the sake of this game staying exciting, I hope the pace picks up.

Also, voting tencate.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:50 pm 
Lizrita, you're right that pseudo-random lynching failed last game (though not so much in previous games.)

However, the lynchings in the last game were hardly random. The mafia led the town by a leash, ensuring that each kill was a townsperson. Also, the mafia rarely missed making a kill (I think only once besides their conscription.) If the mafia do not make kills at all, I think we can expect to win with as naive a strategy as random lynching (which I am not encouraging at this time.)


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 22, 2012 11:55 pm 
First off, c-rock no worries, I know i've been inactive (unfortunately) mostly because I kinda forgot the game existed due to distractions with other things... however I'm trying to be more active now

Along the same vane, I'm not sure voting off inactives is the best policy simply because I know I was fairly inactive because I'm not a special role, don't have items, and there's like no one around me who's in the game. In addition I'm not sure that I've ever met half the people in the game. At which point (granted I don't know the other inactives aside from tencate, who may very well be in the same position I am, so take this with a grain of salt) the inactives may be inactive because they feel like they have no real stake in the game or because they're just forgetful (I'm guilty of both, but mostly the forgetful part xP )

I also have been trying to catch up with the posts and info and what not, so given that I'm probably going to vote no lynch just because I'm still trying to figure out what's up.


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