Live Action Mafia
https://mafia.mit.edu/

Discussion Day 15
https://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=19&t=427
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Author:  Daniel Grazian [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 12:25 am ]
Post subject:  Discussion Day 15

Mafia, are you going to start killing again?

Author:  lizrita [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 2:40 am ]
Post subject: 

Well, this thread is now super ironic.

Author:  lizrita [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:05 pm ]
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I was hanging out at Random from around 6 to 7:15. It was my birthday and Black Hole sung the viking birthday dirge for me. I hung out with sweettea, Abby, and Daniel between Clam and BMF (we were a fire hazard). Afterwards I went to ET to eat brownies and have a bday celebration there. Jaxxson was there for it. At exactly 12:30 I was in my room in the basement of ET. Missed the voting deadline because I was applying for a GAMBIT UROP. It was a great day :D

Author:  c-rock [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 3:22 pm ]
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So, if we don't get more information, I'm voting for dbr tonight. It seems that he's the most suspicious right now.

Thoughts?

Author:  Josh Frisch [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 5:14 pm ]
Post subject: 

I could go for DBR both DBR and Fluffy seem likely to be mafia both are unaccounted for during the kill which was nearly certainly a randomite also Mad scientist if you are still alive, go collect parts and create your monster!

Author:  c-rock [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 7:06 pm ]
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*wants to see a monster*

Author:  Alex [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 7:57 pm ]
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Here's what I heard of the kezi situation from Daniel. What Daniel says is almost surely trustworthy as he was murdered.

Daniel says that kezi told him that she has incontrovertible evidence that bowler is mafia. He said kezi was absolutely sure, but that he did not know whether to believe kezi one way or the other. Daniel said that the way kezi said it gave him doubts. He said he wanted to not believe it, but it was wishful thinking.

Either way, kezi's claim means that either kezi or bowler is mafia.

Daniel conjectured that Steven's "learning information through NP's" was related to whatever made kezi godkilled, but wasn't sure how. I've tried to think of a theory, but couldn't come up with a good one. One guess I have is that Steven hired ceres as a hitman, and ceres learned info while she was an NP, which she accidentally revealed to Steven.

Author:  Alex [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:18 pm ]
Post subject: 

Here's where we stand. The game started with six Mafia, plus an additional conscript.

Three Mafia can clearly be accounted for:
1) Rob
2) jwu
3) ebdavis
Daniel's investigator, who is , got positives on all of them. Only a Frame and Innocent could cause one of these to be wrong, and I think it's really unlikely.

There is also at least one Mafia in each of two pairs
4) dbr and Steven Valdez
5) kezi and bowler
The fist is because dbr says Steven PM'ed him, claiming to be investigator, and having gotten a positive investigation of Alex killing Jaysonl. The second is because kezi claimed to have (as Daniel said) incontrovertible proof that bowler is Mafia. There's absolutely no reason for either of these to happen if both players are townies.

So, that leaves at most two Mafia unaccounted for, or at most one mafia if they have the conscription power remaining.

Now, I'd bet that we lynched at least one Mafia among our other nine lynches.
    Lydia
    Austin
    Tencate
    wcheang
    Caroline
    Jacky
    Andrew
    VivianLee
    Jacobian
So, that would mean at most one Mafia unaccounted for. If there were two Mafia in this list, that means that only dbr or bowler remains as Mafia.

We have two proxied investigators who have tried to find jaysonl's killer to no avail. Now, only that kill and the Daniel kill remain open. Manipulate the Press and Frame an Innocent remain possibilities. Multiple people have come out saying they trust Daniel's Investigator, and he has been the one to finger Rob, jwu, and ebdavis. Daniel posted that he no longer trusts the other investigator.

For the jaysonl kill, here's what Daniel posted about investigations:
Daniel wrote:
People confirmed innocent for jaysonl's kill by my investigator:
fluffy
dbr
bowler
dgrazian (thinking frame a townie might have been used.)
Steven
krue

People confirmed innocent for jaysonl's murder by other investigator (who I don't trust at this point.):

krue
benkraft
Jacobian
Alex

The Mafia have used Hire a Hitman. There's a decent chance they used Manipulate the Press on the jaysonl kill, making all the investigations come out negative. I believe they did not Frame an Innocent for the jasyon kill, and really doubt they did it for previous kills, so either they used it on Daniel or they still have it. I think there's a decent chance they used it on the Daniel kill.

It's hard to say whether they conscripted anyone.

I haven't been aware of any reveals or claims of Mad Scientist, Politician (ignoring jacobi), or Ironheart. I hope none of them were lynched. As there have been few kills, I hope most remain. Don't forget that there's an extra one of these or investigator.

I'd expect Mad Scientist to create their monster tonight. Once the Monster is created, we can use the monster as a trusted hub to hold info and coordinate.

Overall, town has a good numbers advantage even under conservative estimates. I believe town is also ahead is power roles remaining versus Mafia powers remaining.

Author:  lizrita [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 8:34 pm ]
Post subject: 

I say we go for fluffy tonight. DBR claims to have been inactive because of his computer in the beginning, and was duped by someone we're pretty sure is mafia (Steven). I also honestly think that kezi may have been mistaken with whatever info made her think that bowler was definitely mafia. That might be the reason she was smitten. I might go for bowler later if someone convinces me otherwise though.

I'm voting for fluffy, everyone else should feel free to vote for whoever they want.

Author:  krue [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:09 pm ]
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I would be okay with voting for either dbr or Fluffy, as the only Randomites who have yet to be accounted for at the time of the murder. Of those, I would prefer dbr, since he's also on Alex's suspicions list, and I tend to trust Alex's logic. Either way, I think we should avoid splitting votes.

Unless people convince me otherwise, I'm casting my vote for dbr.

Author:  Alex [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:17 pm ]
Post subject: 

I'm sticking with dbr unless something changes. Even if he was duped by Steven, it still doesn't explain his running off on day 1, his nonsensical explanation for it, his continued silence, and how much Daniel had to pry before dbr said it was Steven who fed him the suspcions against me.

Author:  lizrita [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 9:37 pm ]
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Also, I just had to fix the voting record for Day 12. Has someone been messing with it? Not cool.

Author:  fluffy [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:20 pm ]
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I'm going to vote for dbr because it seems like I'm under suspicion and Alex's pairwise mafia indications seem reasonable. Why am I under suspicion, again?

Also, we need to see a monster or two in here!! I want a kludgite townsperson that will be trustworthyyyy!

Author:  fluffy [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 10:24 pm ]
Post subject: 

Also, this has been an interesting and seemingly straightforward game for the investigators--when we're done, I don't just want to know the list of mafia, can we actually have a list of the (small number of) kills by who did it?

Author:  krue [ Wed Feb 01, 2012 11:09 pm ]
Post subject: 

Fluffy, you're under suspicion because you and dbr were the only Randomites unaccounted for at the time of the murder (as far as we know). Alibi time?

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