Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:37 pm 
Hi friends,

I'm your friendly neighborhood dying desperado. I'll be dying tomorrow night.

Living players (after Lucy is executed): pravinas, jamb, nguyenin, sammyluo, regirock, mnjy, m2w

If Lucy is SK: there may be one mafia with a conscript or two mafia. One of these killed agrebe. I have two investigations I can use on this kill, and jamb qua mayor has agreed to use a mayoral investigation on it. We can exonerate at least 3 people that way. If you are a provable role, we can kind of finagle you out of the running for at least the initial round of investigation, and further investigation can prove a mafia. The mafia will then meet justice and we have one more mafia left, with no conscript.

If Lucy is mafia and game is still going: the conscript has been used, and we don't know if she made both kills today or if it was an sK who killed agrebe. The plan works similarly, though, but has more holes in it.

Also note that in neither case should I be conscripted, because I'm dying tomorrow night, and then game ends for the mafia.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:42 pm 
Don't reveal to pravina.

A desperado should only have 1 investigation. As a desperado, you should know this.

Also if I'm bad and mafia still have a conscript left, they would absolutely use it on you. The role info you get would be enough for mafia to kill everyone.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:45 pm 
wait I thought I had a daily investigate until I die. am I mixing up rulesets?

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:47 pm 
Can confirm you would only have one investigation, since this game began with fewer than 20 people- checked the rules

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:50 pm 
Oops, my fault, that means I'm not under any real time pressure for this other than to make recommendations about the mayoral investigation.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:51 pm 
and it's not enough to kill everyone. they only get one trap/slaughter per day.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 8:54 pm 
But yeah, actually reveal to me tomorrow.

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:05 pm 
tomorrow there will be 7 players. If at least two of them are bad (any flavor works) that's 2 vs 5. A trap, a slaughter, and a daily get you to 2 vs 2. However I highly doubt any mafia have died given that the sk almost certainly made a kill today. Therefore you are actually at a 3 vs 1. Gg town

PostPosted: Tue Aug 15, 2017 9:43 pm 
Even if you think I'm the sketchier of the two, don't give pravina your role info. It will result in a town loss

PostPosted: Wed Aug 16, 2017 8:40 am 
Since nobody followed my request to copy paste stuff from chat last night when I couldn't forums, here it is, somewhat reorganized:

I talked to pravina and we came up with a sketchy town plot in which it is optimal (we sort of proved this but probably missed some details?) for people to reveal as she suggested. In particular, before whatever time tomorrow she'd first be around for people to possibly conscript, so that her investigation's honest. (This is all assuming she is town; my estimates are about 91% that Pravina is the good one out of the Pravina-Lucy beef, maybe yours should be slightly lower if you think I might be evil and lying for her.)

Whence 91%?
Sammy and I discussed odds and multiplied together earlier. My Pravina-Lucy investigation is at least a 2:1 update for Pravina since even if she had gotten an accomplice to do it there'd be a 50-50 of investigation going against her, agreed? (Also the lukesci thing would be a kinda dumb beef for Pravina to start if Lucy hadn't done it.) I claim Pravina's non-public thing that Mollie and I discussed with her and Lucy is also about a 2:1 update. Sammy and I determined the priors based on Pravina having been the one in a very killable location posted in her intro, unlike Lucy who was not particularly easily killable, is about 5:2 odds for Pravina. We multiplied these together and got 20:2 aka 91% chance Pravina is the good one in this beef. The numbers are me trying to avoid just acting on my strong gut feeling Pravina is honest, and actually logically think it out. I agree there should be a large error margin.

You probably shouldn't reveal tonight; do it right after day rollover so in some weird worst case traps can't be set tonight. But don't wait until after the next time she's conscriptable. Maybe y'all don't trust me vouching for PS in which case okay, fair. If you do though please reveal after rollover. Preferably in time such that PS can dictate some maximally useful investigation to me before I lose mayor powers?

@Lucy: I had considered the things you said. I may be wrong about trusting Pravina, but not for the reasons you gave. (The point of a sketchy town plot is that at least some part is non public. I don't intend to explain the plot well enough that it necessarily seems optimal from your perspective.) For everyone else, I will point out that if Lucy is mafia of course she doesn't want all role reveal to Pravina because she will probably not live to conscript Pravina tomorrow and thus this is clearly bad for her.

[re: Misha pointing out this is inconsistent with my previous argument against role reveals:] I'm adamantly against public role reveals. Less so to single trusted player. And PS is out of range at home for the night so I think she's trustable until she comes back to campus tomorrow.

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