Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:50 pm 
On the advice of some others (including Jackie before she died), I used a shovel on Linus, and he started the game as town. Not sure about what the implications of this are but could be somewhat vindicating to Maya, who defended him IIRC.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 6:56 pm 
I strongly encouraged this shoveling. For the record, can you mention who else did?


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:00 pm 
It was just you and Jackie.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:02 pm 
Mafia may have the ability to manipulate this result if there is a mafia child, but there's at like a 5/9 chance that mafia don't have this ability (and they may not have used it on Linus anyway). So this is good evidence of Linus being town. Also, IMO, if Linus were mafia, he would have revealed as such once it became obvious he would be lynched (in order for mafia to get in contact with parallel killers). Also, he would have done [thing I don't want to reveal publicly]. The fact that neither of these things happened makes me inclined to trust the shovel result.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:05 pm 
If this is true, then linus was framed, and it casts suspicion on lucy, who 1) was the one to bring suspicion on linus, after changing her alibi 180deg, 2) said she followed him on ames st. and marked the time, so she also passed by bldg 66

It seems, child Mafia can only change the shovel results of the person killed by this child, but not the one lynched.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:11 pm 
ksedlar wrote:
if Linus were mafia, he would have revealed as such once it became obvious he would be lynched (in order for mafia to get in contact with parallel killers)


Counterpoints:

- We weren't confident Linus was mafia, so it might be better for him to not reveal so it stays ambiguous.
- A townie Linus should also do this, and then post publicly or send to a few players the messages he gets from claimed PKs.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:14 pm 
@laberca

Are you the one who did the shoveling or was it proxied to you? I don't think I believe you, and this is coming from the one person who did vote for Lucy last night. Lucy has also since made me think that she's much more likely town through conversation with her. The 3 investigations are pretty damning against Linus.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:17 pm 
I personally did the shoveling. I know his role as well but I don't think I should publicly announce that. Maybe I could compare with the person he roleclaimed to?


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:18 pm 
I was very surprised by the result, I personally argued against Linus last night as he failed the investigations and I voted against him too.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:19 pm 
Don't post the role until we've checked that it matches his claim, but once that happens there's no reason not to post it.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:27 pm 
dylanhen and I both PM'd both laberca and python and asked them what Linus's role was (from Shovel and roleclaim).

Both told me that Linus was a Pickpocket.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:28 pm 
vito wrote:
If this is true, then linus was framed, and it casts suspicion on lucy, who 1) was the one to bring suspicion on linus, after changing her alibi 180deg, 2) said she followed him on ames st. and marked the time, so she also passed by bldg 66

It seems, child Mafia can only change the shovel results of the person killed by this child, but not the one lynched.


Wow, I had not realized this (plant evidence was much more flexible in previous games). So, my understanding is that as long as laberca is good, then that means that Linus must have been town. That's a much stronger statement than we have been able to make in recent games.

Dylanhen, IMO the ambiguity is worth a LOT less to mafia than knowing who their parallel killers are (assuming that a mafia would get lynched either way). Also, while townies should occasionally fake claim mafia in this way, it has the downside of causing a lot of confusion when other townies try to reason afterwards. Town not knowing "is this person mafia or not?" is a lot less disruptive than town believing "X is definitely mafia" when X is town. So IMO, while townies should occasionally do this, mafia should almost always do this (at least until they've contacted their PKs), and so Linus's lack of doing so looks more townish than mafiaish.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:41 pm 
Yeah, mayars is probably the best lynch target atm. I am quite suspicious of Lucy now, I think she is slightly more likely to be town than mafia, but significantly less likely to be town than a randomly chosen player.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 7:56 pm 
@Python, I think this makes me look more innocent actually, given that I spoke for Linus and declared my intention of voting dgrazian instead.

(Also I published a defense of myself in dgrazian's thread)


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:00 pm 
I still think Linus was mafia. Either mafia has a child or mafia has a pair investigator, pretty much. Why should we assume it's the latter? Linus sure was acting like mafia.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:04 pm 
I forget how guilt works. Is it possible he could have been "guilty" for a kill he didn't do?


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:07 pm 
Wait sorry, that didn't make any sense.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:07 pm 
Yes, they can, if mafia have a Pair Investigator.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:07 pm 
Julian wrote:
I still think Linus was mafia. Either mafia has a child or mafia has a pair investigator, pretty much. Why should we assume it's the latter? Linus sure was acting like mafia.

Wait, a mafia child can only make Linus look town if they kill Linus. And that didn't happen? So the shovel result is guaranteed to be accurate, or no?


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:08 pm 
Yes, PI or GA killer can frame other people, so they are guilty instead


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:10 pm 
So is the only way the shovel could have been inaccurate is via someone converting Linus to mafia? Because shovel tells starting alignment, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:11 pm 
@Julian yes. (that might be a bug in the rules...oops)
@vito GA can't make someone else guilty, just themself not-guilty.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:14 pm 
If Linus was town, then he was almost certainly framed. But by whom? I don't think Lucy killed Margarita. Even if she did, then that pair investigation would still have had a 50-50 chance of landing on Linus instead of Lucy, since they would both look guilty, right? So the mafia who killed Margarita somehow knew to frame Linus? And then Lucy, presumably mafia, starts by confirming Linus before eventually incriminating him?

That seems highly improbable to me. But then again, the only alternative seems to be that laberca is lying? So I am just confused now...


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:16 pm 
And if I'm lying, it would also mean both jasonye and dgrazian are lying, or python is lying, since I confirmed the role.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:18 pm 
laberca wrote:
And if I'm lying, it would also mean both jasonye and dgrazian are lying, or python is lying, since I confirmed the role.

Well you could have easily actually used a shovel and told the truth about the role but not the alignment.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:19 pm 
Oh right, that's true. Still, someone else could use a shovel if I'm really suspect.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:20 pm 
Julian wrote:
If Linus was town, then he was almost certainly framed. But by whom? I don't think Lucy killed Margarita. Even if she did, then that pair investigation would still have had a 50-50 chance of landing on Linus instead of Lucy, since they would both look guilty, right?


No. If Lucy framed linus, all 3 investigations would point to not-linus, because now linus has the guilt.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:23 pm 
vito wrote:
Julian wrote:
If Linus was town, then he was almost certainly framed. But by whom? I don't think Lucy killed Margarita. Even if she did, then that pair investigation would still have had a 50-50 chance of landing on Linus instead of Lucy, since they would both look guilty, right?


No. If Lucy framed linus, all 3 investigations would point to not-linus, because now linus has the guilt.

Would Lucy no longer have guilt? I thought the lucy-linus investigation would be a coinflip because both have guilt.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:25 pm 
"Framing" sounds like making yourself innocent. But actually it's not clear from the rules.


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 Post subject: Re: Linus was town
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 8:26 pm 
Julian is correct (or at least, that's how the rules were intended).


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