Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:31 pm 
Lucy was good. (a) no-one claiming her kill, (b) she gave me a tazer day 0 which is, I think, not plausible mafia play. If no more deaths happen today this is even more confirmed.
Maya was probably PK, cf. shovel handle, but we have two bad deaths today; therefore she was probably the odd PK, ie the one who killed day 3, and probably the even PK is still alive.
In particular, Lucy's kill was definitely not parallel, so must have been mafia. This reveals, I think, potentially a lot about the mafia. Katie said Lucy was a bad kill because she was basically next in line to be lynched; and that therefore she, Katie, wasn't likely to be mafia, since she would pick a better target. I think this kind of logic is basically valid and applies to some other players too. Nothing is 100%, but I'm more inclined to trust players who I think wouldn't make this (arguable) mistake, if they have alibis for one of the even parallel kills.


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:34 pm 
Or Lucy got trapped and mafia still have a kill left today, which seems just as likely to me?


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:35 pm 
Sure, if there is another kill today I'll buy that.


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 3:36 pm 
Yeah I'm assuming Lucy and Linus were both town, and just did a bad job on the day 1 alibis


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:35 pm 
I agree that Lucy was probably town, however this still doesn't rule out the possibility of a townie killing her, and not wanting to admit to doing so for fear of looking suspicious.

Also, do we think the PK killed Dylan today or do we think that was mafia? I think it'd be very weird for mafia to kill Lucy given that she was under suspicion and likely to be executed anyway, unless it was a free trap kill. In that case though, either Dylan was the mafia's "real" kill, or they still haven't made their other kill.

In the case where Dylan was the mafia's real kill, the lack of a PK kill puts suspicion on yyao1 because I have information from roleblocker apple that yyao1 was roleblocked today (non-apple roleblockers should also proxy claim). If we believe mayars was really PK and killed D3 then this means yyao1 would have been responsible for the D2 kill 1 of m2w (which was the PK kill) - can some investigators check him out?


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 6:41 pm 
If a townie killed Lucy, it's probably best for them to proxy this fact so that we can tell what's going on. (This was protocol for vigilante kills when that role existed.)


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 8:07 pm 
I absolutely agree. If you are a zombie and killed her, then say so directly. If you are a plainswalker and killed her then proxy out the info.

If we don't hear from anybody we should assume that Lucy was killed my mafia/pk. But this could lead to extremely problematic confusion if we are wrong, so please don't withhold this info!


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 Post subject: Re: My inferences
PostPosted: Thu Sep 21, 2017 10:03 pm 
plainswalker
planeswalker


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