Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:16 am 
Jack, Jakob, and I have been looking for the parallel killer this early morning. We went through the spreadsheet specifically looking at the mollie and dylan kills (both of which we are highly confident were done by the same parallel killer), and also considered the numerous investigations that happened with these kills. Also many personal opinions were involved, and none of us are the parallel killer. Here are our conclusions:

Pretty suspicious: python, brunnerj
Maybe suspicious: vito, chiller
Investigation confirmed: Jasonlam, maxmurin, laberca
Like, probably not: everyone else


 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:12 am 
Could you explain your reasoning more? In particular, brunnerj was confirmed at ET today at 12:44 by Pravi, plus at 12:50 by me, so I think it is nearly impossible for him to have killed dylanhen. I also find python to be pretty innocent seeming based on psych reads (though obviously I don't expect you guys to have been able to use this in your discussion).

Dgrazian is also investigation confirmed to have not killed m2w, and yyao1 should be just as confirmed as Jasonlam based claims of being roleblocked day 4. Though as python has pointed out, it's also possible (though IMO slightly less likely) that both kills today were by the mafia, as that would slightly explain mafia's weird kill on Lucy.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 3:46 am 
Indeed, why am I suspicious?
I get python for the investigation against him.

Also, jakob I think is totally a suspicious person for being jakob and both of these kills are clean.
I believe that Julian and gurev are less likely than average to have been the parallel killer.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:38 am 
I am still doubtful that Dylan's kill was a PK because I don't see why mafia would kill Lucy if it wasn't a free kill, given that she was under suspicion and might well have been zombie killed or executed. So my conclusion is Dylan was a free mafia kill, in which case my arguments in the other thread imply that yyao1 might be PK. I would like someone to do an investigation of me and him for m2w, if I am right this will prove my innocenxe and support my case for him being PK. Also I believe PK kills can't be framed? (someone should double check this). My prediction would also be that there would be a PK kill today, so if you see a triple kill or otherwise confirmed PK kill then I would execute yyao1 if I am dead by then.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 9:48 am 
Actually I suppose if the PK happened to also be a PI then framing is possible, but this is rather unlikely and I will bet my life that yyao1 isn't a PK PI. There's also another scenario I thought of, where mafia killed Lucy believing she was the PK and trying to get in contact, but this also seems fairly unlikely especially as Lucy was going to get executed if the mafia hadn't killed her. So I still don't see any explanation for this kill other than it being a free trap kill, or a mistake by the mafia.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 12:02 pm 
Ok, yes, we noticed dgrazian and yyao were confirmed too when we were going through the list of players, but forgot about them when making this list.

I was unaware that brunnerj's alibis were confirmed. Nothing on the spreadsheet said so.

I agree that there is absolutely nothing to clear jakob. We skipped ourselves when going through the list of players because there was less of a point in us discussing it, oops.

I think that python's narrative here is a bit of a stretch. The mafia got a free kill, and used it during parallel kill time, and the parallel killer chose not to kill yesterday? Oh I forgot, you explained this away by saying that the PK was roleblocked. There are many reasons I can think of to kill Lucy, none of them are THAT great but:

- Information she had
- Role power she had
- Someone mentioned to me that irl issues may be related to it
- They thought she was the parallel killer and wanted to recruit
- They thought she had been cursed the previous day but she hadn't
- They wanted to kill investigator pomegranate's alibis: note that this was Lucy and Dylan, both of them died yesterday and we haven't heard from pomegranate since...
- They wanted to be able to make this type of argument "well, mafia wouldn't have done this, what can I say actually happened?"
- General confusion, similar to above
- There was an opportunity to kill her with good alibis to not get caught
- Something I can't imagine because I'm not mafia
- Some combination of the above

In any case, I think that for example ksedlar's previous claim of "mafia would be dumb to do this; I would never do it, therefore I'm not mafia" is nearly worthless. So my conclusion (and Jack and Jakob's) is that the dylan kill was nearly certainly done by a parallel killer. It's just the simplest explanation really.

"I will bet my life that yyao isn't a PK PI"... if he's a PK as you claim then there's probably slightly better than 1/9 odds of him being PI, not good but I suggest not betting your life.

Here's my personal updated list, without further discussion with Jack and Jakob:

Very suspicious: python
Suspicious-ish: chiller, vito, jakob
Maybe: Joachim (I think we accidentally skipped him last time oops), a couple others but it's kinda a stretch
Confirmed-ish not PK: Jasonlam, maxmurin, laberca, dgrazian, yyao1
Would be surprised: Everyone else

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 1:33 pm 
By betting my life I mean that if he is PK PI and framed me I could still come up guilty in an investigation with him and face certain execution. However if I get executed (which seems likely without an investigation clearing me) then we will almost certainly lose just due to numbers (maf get probably 2 kills average at this point including traps and PK kills). So betting on my intuition and a 17/18 chance that he isn't PK PI or the RNG comes up in my favor seems quite reasonable to me, as not doing so would almost certainly cause us to lose.

Also I will point out I mentioned yyao1 being suspicious before being investigated or suspicious. Since being investigated I just want a chance to prove my innocence by investigating me and yyao1 since I think he did it. Or you could investigate me and someone else if you are suspicious I'm actually PK PI, however this leaves a 50 percent chance of you falsely executing me like Linus. Also if Linus was framed it makes it less likely for there to be a PK PI in game.

I also would add, the fact that no kills have happened today yet do make me second guess my assumptions about yyao1, however I still think he has a higher than average chance of being PK.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:04 pm 
Unless a kill happens in the next 7 minutes I will have to conclude that dylan was indeed a PK kill because one didn't happen today. In this case I will drop my case against yyao1 (it's possible he was roleblocked again or decided not to kill today to make Dylan look like a PK kill but these are unlikely imo).

I have to admit I am still quite confused as to why the mafia killed Lucy though. I guess a mistake?

In any case, assuming no PK-like kills end up happening today, just because Julian is posting this thread does not mean he, Jack, or Jakob aren't PK. I still look more suspicious than them due to the investigation result (which is why I want more PIs to check me), but they should also be looked at. In particular, Jakob should post an alibi for the kill of Dylan, and I'd also be interested to see an investigation involving him.

So IGNORING PRIVATE INFORMATION held by me or other players, I think the general consensus would be in suspicions:

most suspicious - me (pls investigate more to prove me innocent)
pretty suspicious - Jakob (no alibi for Dylan, claims "asleep" for m2w)
less so - vito, chiller, joachim, Julian

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:13 pm 
From my perspective, I've seen python most days at ET around murder o' clock. I didn't see him today or yesterday though. I kinda want more from jakobw though.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:14 pm 
Wait, why is "asleep" a bad alibi? I don't think it's any worse than any other alibi that isn't confirmed by other players.

Not leaving an alibi is pretty sketchy though.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:23 pm 
I would say that given you strongly expressed the statement "If a PK-looking kill happens today, we will lynch yyao1 (or maybe jasonlam," I actually think it's quite likely that if yyao1 (or maybe jasonlam) was PK, then there would be no PK kill today. That said, I think that dylanhen probably was a PK kill, and so it's unlikely that yyao1/jasonlam were PK; I just think this mostly independent of the lack of PK kills today.

I'm also wondering why ObitoSigma, (and to some extent mx32000) aren't being considered as candidates; they both seem to have unconfirmed alibis for both kills (assuming that ObitoSigma's Random Hall peeps eating in Maseeh don't include players, and assuming that no one confirmed max32000's medical appointment was at the time she claimed).

Pravi, while I psychologically trust python, I will say that he has only been around ET at murder o'clock on days WITHOUT a PK kill.

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:48 pm 
this is gonna make me seem even more sketch, but thinking back, Dr. Fernandes suggested we end the appt earlier (around 12:20ish?) than the intended time (12:30) so that I could finish my 18.022 pset (due at 12:45). so at 12:28 I was ambiguously either walking to building 4 or sitting on the bench at the beginning of building 4 finishing the pset.

so obviously I don't consider myself sketchy but considering building 26 is within that path.... :?

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 2:51 pm 
(jk not within the path but near. building numbers are confusing)

 Post subject: Re: Parallel Hunting
PostPosted: Fri Sep 22, 2017 6:48 pm 
I agree that it's possible my threat of executing yyao1 scared him off from making a PK today, however in this case I think it accomplished its job of saving a townie. In terms of being/not being at ET, I have no classes on Monday or Wednesday so I was at ET those days, and I have class at murder o'clock on Tuesday and Thursday (the PK days). I'll also point out dgrazian was at ET only on those days where there were no PKs, although I think he was innocent by investigation. I will likely be voting for Jakob or Joachim due to inactivity and a lack of data.

Also does anyone have an explanation of why no kills today? This seems like the mafia hit the PK which is rather worrying since they can now coordinate.

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