Live Action Mafia

Day 2 Strategy
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Author:  python [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 8:22 am ]
Post subject:  Day 2 Strategy

I feel like having a lynch thread start 20 minutes before day end is pretty bad as it doesn't give investigators or the person under suspicion time to do anything/defend themselves. This usually just ends up with an innocent person getting lynched (like m2w yesterday or me last game). So I feel that having a thread where we can coordinate investigations/start planning the lynch in advance might be helpful. In any case, my prior distribution of sketchiness going into the day would be:

1) jamb, for pushing for the lynch on m2w and today claiming 3 investigation results on achester, before he was cleared by Chiller. This seems like a pretty obvious/risky mafia move, but it's possible jamb was counting on getting lynched late-game just for being alive, and wanted to take out a few townies/sow confusion first.
2) achester, for having three investigation results against him before conveniently getting cleared by fellow mafia Chiller. This seems like an extremely risky move for mafia (presumably faking pair investigations would be far safer) but it's possible the mafia were panicked by jamb's three successive investigations and wanted to make the counter look more believable.
3) Chiller (see 2)
4) Julian/anyone else who was roleblocked day 1. Since there was only one kill day 1, anyone who was roleblocked might have been a SK unable to make their kill. If we see multiple kills today this evidence becomes much stronger, though as ksedlar pointed out it is possible the SKs just decided not to kill day 1.

I'd also like to say that I have a very strong innocent psychread on ksedlar, in that she's coming up with a lot of very strong town plays. That being said, this was also true last game and she turned out to be mafia so take this as you may.

Obviously, these are just priors, and the kills and investigations that happen today will update my beliefs on who is best to lynch (probably strongly enough that it won't be anyone on that list). But I figured it might be useful to start this conversation early. If you're on this list, don't panic, I am NOT proposing we lynch you. I just want to avoid another panicked, last-minute lynch bandwagon.

Author:  jamb [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 9:46 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

Agree a lot with Python here (especially about starting early). All 4 of us are pretty sketchy. Presumably if one of me, achester, and chiller gets lynched in the probabeef, we could shovel? otoh this seems like it'd be a great use for plant evidence if mafia / SK have it. For me in particular: I don't mind getting executed early since I'm hosed. I'm a sketchball, but that's always true, and I like it that way.

Author:  achester [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 10:29 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

My global sketch list is about the same as python's, but with a few extra thoughts:
1) jamb: A townie jamb would definitely investigate me (not wanting to be caught believing my alibi if it were incorrect), and would have a 1/8 chance of getting three flips against me and another 1/8 chance of getting three flips against someone else. A mafia jamb, despite being hosed, would probably rather make kills than get caught by something as mundane as lying on investigations with a whole 24 hours to get corrected (although it's still a bit of an update toward her being guilty: if not, a mafia jamb would definitely do it at no cost). That she pushed for a last-hour lynch of someone who turned out to be innocent is more of an update toward sketchiness.
2) achester: Fortunately, I’m sketchy precisely because of investigations and so can be made less sketchy by them; if we don’t get a better use for investigations by, say, 5pm today, I think it’s worth using another (two, in expectation) splitter investigation(s) on me.
3) Chiller. (If those investigations clear me again, Chiller also moves down; if not, Chiller moves up following me.)
4) Julian: That he was roleblocked on day 1 is both sketchifying, since it’s an explanation for why there was only one kill yesterday, and desketchifying, since it makes him innocent of the day 1 kill more strongly than investigation results that could've been secretly admired or priested.
5-8?) [all the new players], as an explanation for why there was only one kill yesterday.

++avoiding last-minute lynch mobs

Author:  Chiller [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:37 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

I think Luke's result mostly vindicates me, and definitely vindicates achester. (not sure how to quote in another thread)

Author:  Chiller [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 12:38 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

This being the case, Jackie should be primary lynch target, possibly followed by Julian.

Author:  lukesci [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:27 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

I don't trust Mendel (Chiller) at all. I did just give him a shovel handle.

Author:  lukesci [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 1:30 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

Actually, I don't distrust him as much as that now, since he just cleared up a misunderstanding I had about something he said.

Author:  jamb [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

Since people seem to find me more-than-equilibrium-sketchy:

achester got a piece of evidence on day 0 (OOG I don't want what it is stated publicly) that he said was half-a-bit update in favor of me being town. (I think that means a 1:sqrt(2) odds update against me being mafia.) I estimate almost anyone else who knows me would give it a higher update than that, but achester knows me well enough to know that you should basically never trust me based on anything that comes out of my mouth, so he only treats it as half a bit evidence. He can confirm, and y'all can presumably trust he's not my mafia buddy lying for me. :P

Depending on how sketchy you find me, maybe you still want to execute me tonight? Fine by me tbh. Though I would like to suggest that with ksedlar dead, we not lynch off all the people who would keep spreadsheets updated. :P

It seems like the main claims against me are (1) I might've just made stuff up to incriminate achester and (2) I started a lynch mob on m2w who turned out to be good. Personally, I'm not one for keeping my mouth shut if I think someone looks sketchy, and I think seeing who supports whom in the ensuing discussion is useful for town, and I'd rather be the one to propose a lynch and see what happens than wait and let the mafia do it. I can see how it's a little difficult for y'all to distinguish between that and me being mafia, but I don't plan to change my playstyle away from being a sketchball.

Author:  achester [ Thu Oct 12, 2017 5:35 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Day 2 Strategy

I confirm jamb’s description.

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