Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: General stuff
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:25 am 
I'd like to post a thread with general strategy tips, other people feel free to add.

Be more open about information than you might think after last game, I mean don't tell the entire town you are innocent child if you are, but generally being secretive will help the mafia who has a large information advantage on the town. People are dumb, and make slips, most slips of tongues belong to the town and not the mafia, if somebody forgets a lynch vote or a murder, that doesn't make them mafia, that makes them forgetful, it's not even good bayesian evidence for them being mafia. Use your powers, this should need stating, but apparently it does so use them. Think before you act, realize that consensus probably has more town votes than mafia, but that doesn't make it right, the town is often dumb. Don't assume you have more information than you have. Guilt by association has, historically led to bad results. Disagreeing with you doesn't mean guilt, it either means knowing facts the other doesn't interpretation differences or guilt, in particularly minor differences are often overvalued when they shouldn't be.

I doubt any of the above will be controversial among the more seasoned and active players so here is some advice which I expect to be contested on but I think it's still pretty clearly true

Conscription does matter and will probably be used in a strategic way. A lot of the times conscription is used on ironheart as a simple way to kill him. Ironheart also happens to be a nice fake identity for mafia, now obviously don't lynch all ironhearts but keep this in mind. I also think that Dgrazian, as he is a very active member of the town and a leader and has a high chance of getting conscripted. Now this chance is still probably only about 35%. Often it will be used on ironheart or in case of a screwup or... well just generally those things. So basically, Dgrazian now is with 85% chance or so town but, I suspect, that if he exist past day 3 the odds of him being town are probably much lower, maybe 50%. (I think usually good mafia aim for good players, which puts me, krue, kaufmand, alex, and dgrazian at risk, I think he is probably the best player for the town when he's town (by, you know, a lot) so I think he is the most in danger of being conscripted, still given that he probably started as town, don't assume he's more likely mafia unless he survives. (Which, I'm too lazy to do the math right now, has been well correlated with him being mafia though to be fair the regression might hold with other players. Other things, don't value mikes and recievers, even with the buffs I think they are nearly worthless, but meh. In general things being transferred around makes them more likely to fall into mafia hands, so be pretty stingy. I'll write more if I think of more.

 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:49 am 
Josh, you are dramatically overestimating the risk that any individual person, including me, will be conscripted. This is the same paranoia that damages the town in every game.

Most of the rest, though, I think I agree with.

 Post subject:
PostPosted: Sun Jan 13, 2013 1:56 am 
I think it's more likely that the mafia will attempt to conscript a good player as one of their primary aims then I think you do, and if they conscript with that purpose, you seem like you would be the clear choice? I mean, obviously you've done nothing sketchy that I can see, I'd be surprised (15% chance or so of you being mafia) if you are mafia, but I think, assuming you live past the first few days, the odds of you being mafia end up actually being pretty good. I mean, last game the mafia clearly conscripted with good player in mind so I'm not convinced it won't happen again.

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