Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:50 pm 
My point was to suggest someone specific to lynch, so that the lynch discussion doesn't start right before 11. I have no particular thing against Delong. I wanted a starting point for the discussion. As for Gary, I didn't want him lynched last night, because I know him well, and I know that he is a competent player. That would defeat the purpose of lynching an inactive.

With that said, I am fine lynching most players, except for a select few who I trust reasonably well. Gary is not on that list.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:54 pm 
As for me being kind of "off" I expect that has been the case since the beginning of the game. I've been running on just a few hours of sleep per night (and usually not at night) between battlecode and moving my stuff from random to et.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:58 pm 
Are people around at all (on the forum or in person)? We should start talking about things so discussions don't happen in the last five minutes before time.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 9:59 pm 
I don't agree that we should lynch dgrazian. The probability that a player is mafia at the beginning of the game is 3/n, where n is the number of players. The probability that a player is conscripted at some point in the game is (naively) 1/n. Most people, like me or Krue, have a 4/n chance of being mafia by game end, because 3/n + 1/n = 4/n. dgrazian was provably not a mafia at game start, so his chance of being mafia by game end is 1/n. Therefore, let's not lynch dgrazian, because he is four times less likely to be mafia by game end than somebody else.

The objection could be raised that dgrazian, because he is a prominent player and a provably innocent player, has a greater than 1/n chance of being conscripted at some point in the game. That's true, but I don't think the odds go up fourfold. Additionally, this 1/n probability is only the odds of conscription by game end--because the game has only recently begun, there's a very good chance the mafia haven't even used their conscription yet. I think that effect more than cancels the "dgrazian is an attractive conscription target" effect. Let's not lynch dgrazian.

Instead, let's lynch somebody else. I'd be fine with Delong, since Delong might have been mafia at the beginning of the game, and since dgrazian, who may well have more information than most of us, apparently wants him dead.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:03 pm 
I'm also for lynching delong as a random inactive and would be for putting Gary on top of the inactives list to lynch another time we have no real info.

Lynching dgrazian would be too extreme, not that I trust him. He and Cathy got the Medkit to Shi-Ke. He's probably not conscripted.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:05 pm 
lilychen, nealth (Delong), and Hassan are the only Randomites to not have alibis.
Of these, lilychen and Delong have voted with town the last two days, whereas Hassan has not voted the last two days.
Overall, lynching Delong is a thing I'm okay with.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:07 pm 
Doesn't giving the med kit to Shike make them more suspicicious, due to bring out the big guns (as you mentioned in person earlier?). You also mentioned that given the high probability of miking etc the mafia may have used bring out the big guns in either case


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:10 pm 
I could go for Delong. Because he wandered around random slifhtly more than before after Schmolly's death I find hasan more suspicious than lilly.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:12 pm 
andrealincoln wrote:
Doesn't giving the med kit to Shike make them more suspicicious, due to bring out the big guns (as you mentioned in person earlier?). You also mentioned that given the high probability of miking etc the mafia may have used bring out the big guns in either case
So, one on hand, yes, but then again Mafia with the Medkit could have just managed to lose it and not use their power. Mafia might reasonably bring out the big guns without any special information, especially with the risk of shike being microphoned. I'm not sure how it balances out.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:21 pm 
I am voting for Delong.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:23 pm 
I'll vote delong.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:26 pm 
Yeah let's kill Delong


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:28 pm 
I'm voting for Delong. I'd also vote for Gary if people strongly prefer.

If anyone intends to lynch someone else, or to go with Krue's attempt to get dgrazian lynched, please post saying so. If you vote suddenly or unexpectedly without posting on the forum, I will suspect you of being Mafia, even if you claim of a last-minute in-person consensus.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:29 pm 
Voting for Delong.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:30 pm 
I think I'd rather vote for gary then delong, I was talking with krue earlier and we agreed that delong is playing exactly as you would expect delong to play, that is slightly but not very active. I'm don't quite see why we are lynching him, that said, I won't be that upset if he is lynched.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:32 pm 
Hmmm, well I have no strong feelings about who to lynch, but I would really like to go to bed soon. So I'll just vote for Delong and hope there is nothing that happens in the next 30 minutes that would make it a really bad idea.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:32 pm 
I was at ET at the time of the death. I'm fine with lynching delong.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 10:57 pm 
We need any leads as quickly as possible


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:00 pm 
FYI there have been kills. Look at the town hall.


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 Post subject:
PostPosted: Tue Jan 15, 2013 11:24 pm 
My alibi was that I was at a ski class in Nashoba Valley from 5:30 to 11:10. I even have a broken tooth and a busted lip to show for it!


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