Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 6:57 pm 
(Mollie shared some thoughts with me, but is too busy to make a post)

Mollie doesn't like Meghal right now, because she thinks Julian is extremely town, and doesn't care whether he's vanilla or not. Context: Meghal proposed lynching Julian in response to his claimed vigilante kill.

Mollie is also suspicious that Meghal was opposed to tasing Jakob (I suggested that Mollie do that this morning while on Floor Pi). Mollie says she brought up the topic of tasing Jakob to Meghal twice (once over gchat, once in person.) And then Meghal spent all the Floor Pi coins on a mint while Mollie was sitting there advocating for a taser.

I, ksedlar, slightly endorse this suspicion, though I can't confirm the events of the second paragraph. I also think that Julian is not "extremely town," because if doing this made one seem "extremely town," then mafia have incentive to do it. I think the effect of what Julian did, if he is mafia, is "use up a mafia kill that probably could have been done on something better, and switch the lynch from being 100% chance of lynching a town to a random chance of lynching a town." This is slightly bad for mafia IMO, so it should make Julian look "slightly town." Which is still better than the average person, who looks "neutral," so lynching Julian is bad. But like, I just want to be clear on my personal stance here.

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:17 pm 
ill post in response to this what i just chatted mollie

"Mollie doesn't like Meghal right now"
anyway logic i guess:
there werent that many pairs against jakob last night so i didnt want to tase him
tasing middle of the day seems pointless since a sketchy maf probably already made kills and tasers r still nontrivially expensive
and theres so many mafia that it's not really that bad for a diff mafia to have to make the kill
in retrospect i do agree it might have been worth and i made a faulty decision
also mafia me probably would have told jakob about this last night and got him to make an early kill and then get tased, right?
i guess theres still sk, but lower priors
also re killing julian: i dont actually thnk he's wayyy townier than average, maybe a little. but killing him means we're guaranteed 1 maf dead, and i feel like 1 guaranteed maf dead is worth like 1.05 expected maf dead with higher variance

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 7:31 pm 
I can confirm there was a floorpi coin --> mint exchange. I don't remember m2w advocating strongly (or at all) for a taser in person; I might also have just been tired enough to not notice it. I think my psychreads and interactions w/ meghal have updated me pretty strongly towards thinking she's town.

I think personally that lynching Julian is maybe not correct, but I do not think it is a sketchy position to take. Notably, if he's telling the truth, he's a vanilla townie now, so killing him over a random other townie (whose power we will subsequently lose) is better. Of course, I think lynching one of the more suspicious is much more likely to hit a mafia, so I think I agree not lynching Julian is probably better.
Also, I agree that I update decently well on Julian being town. I think this is just a really weird play as mafia, b/c it brings attention to him, which seems suboptimal as mafia? Even if it results in slightly more town trust, I think mafia's job is a lot easier if people are not noticing you. As said by other people, I definitely don't update enough to trust him completely, and we should roleblock him if we don't lynch him.

PostPosted: Thu Sep 27, 2018 8:10 pm 
There are a few possible cases:

(1) Julian is a town vig that did a correct kill (if he killed town there is no reason not to claim so since we can effectively no-lynch by voting him). If that is the case then he will not die automatically.
(2) Julian is mafia/SK and has just used their daily kill (or scheme? seems unlikely) If that is the case then he will not die automatically.
(3) Julian is a mafia vig:
(3a) He was splashed by a honey jar. If that is the case then he will not die automatically.
(3b) He was not splashed by a honey jar. If that is the case then he WILL die automatically.

The fact that (3b) is quite unlikely (mafia could easily have 3 coins and bought a honey jar even if they don't have one) means that we can almost be certain that he will not die today unless we lynch him. Unfortunately this means that there is not much update for Julian for either side. I agree with ixa that if we don't lynch him then we should at least roleblock him since that is literally nonnegative utility for town.

Please do note that Julian will be able to kill again after 3 days (starting day 5), so he is not entirely a vanilla townie if case (2) holds true.

EDIT: I just realized that case (3) is actually not that likely given that we have only 2 kills today, and mafia likely did at most one of them (the other one done by SK or Julian the town vig).

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