Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:40 pm 
So I had a strange feeling like in the pit of my soul. And I couldn't figure it out. I met up with various mafia players throughout the week but one kept leaving me with a strange feeling. I think i figured it out.

Everyone has pushed swapnil's kill aside and left it as the kill done by an sk rather than a mafia. Any mention of the opposite is quickly shut down as impossible. But I think it is a valid point that should be discussed. Imagine you were swapnil's mafia partner. He makes a kill and maybe you chastise him, maybe you told him to. The important part is that he made the kill and got roped into not one but two spirit searches and several investigations. In this case we assume the mafia would obviously take his items, but i think it would be the opposite. IF he died without the items then it would be obvious he is mafia. ON the other hand, by leaving him with the counter he looks more like an sk. Thus the general town consensus would be that one sk is down. They would overestimate how many mafia there are. Additionally, he didn't have a coin, we assumed initially that he sold it to destroy it, but I'm not sure. That seems weird to me. I don't feel that swapnil would know that was possible. It wasn't really confirmed until later by the gms that it even was. I think it would be much more

This brings me to another point jasonye and brunnerj both died in very strange locations. No one should know right? Except someone from ET. Currently I have two people I suspect, pravinas or m2w. I am willing to wager money that m2w is the other mafia. I had like a single line of dialogue with prav and they told me they were way busy due to parent weekend and general MIT stuff. And the dissonance with how prav has acted this game versus last game matches this. M2w is a more likely suspect. She was conveniently gone for all of today in a secluded location. When she came back. BrunnerJ was dead.

The thing about this is that I am sure that lilychen was not framed. Lilychen killed jasonye and m2w supplied information, but I don't think lilychen was mafia. I think she was an sk that was maybe recruited. Why? Because the behavior of the mafia matches up much better with another player. In the previous game, I know 2 players that were just the perfect embodiment of scheming and manipulation. Sir Nicoeus and Daniel Grazian. I am sad to say that of the two, Sir Nico raises the most red flags. But the fact that it saddens me to say that makes me feel like he is so much more likely to be the one. He has gone very in depth with his previous plans in our last game. Get close to a town, manipulate him, ???, profit. It almost seems like I have fallen into that cycle. He came to the counter signing and talked with Mielu and I. We conversed. He shared his role. He grew a relationship.

This in itself is nothing bad. He is really just a cool guy, but its the little things. Whenever the swapnil coin is mentioned, he is the first to bring up the fact that he probably gave it to another player to build trust as he himself did in the other game. While possible, it seems that he tries to gloss over swapnil at times. Additionally, He really doesn't like dgrazian. Not in the I don't like this person kind of way, but in a "This person is a threat to me" kind of way. I trust dgrazian to an extent, but its fairly clear in my short dealings with him that he is town. While I wouldn't attribute all of the lynchings to be solely his work, he has, in my eyes, done what a good townie would do. Nico has also had fairly shoddy alibis even after coming back.

I can't really say much more than that. I can by no means prove that he is mafia, but the feeling is there and I want it put out there before I die.

Now leaving that behind an moving on to sk's, I still think think lilychen is sk? Looking back it could potentially a framing? I dunno. Sir Nico claims something but i Forgot.

Julia (jwlw2022) definitely an sk. I'm gonna believe Dgrazian and the "He He He" story. Jw corrects to he and in a panic i probably might have done the same. BUT she also must have killed agu1 because investigations say so. So she was probably a role that could kill maybe vig. Probably vig.

Now on to our last sk of the game. Chiller. Why chiller you may ask. Because I have accounted for every kill within day 1,2, and 3 except for vikt. You know who just so happened to have only put up an alibi for vikt. Chiller. boom.

If I die tomorrow its probably because of this.

TLDR: Possibilities
Mafia: Sir Nico, m2w, and swapnil
Sk: Jwlw2022, Chiller, and lilychen

PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:41 pm 
Nico don't hate me pls

PostPosted: Sun Oct 28, 2018 11:43 pm 
The worst part is that Nico said he was going radio dead tonight so big rip

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:00 am 
Oh, I never posted this publicly, but josh and achester convinced me that julia is probably not an sk, and in fact, if she /is/ an SK then there's semi-provable fuckery in terms of achester getting a result that exonerated julia for ksedlar's kill, accepting that "he he he" was a paranoia text against julia, when mafia (a) wouldn't really have a motive to spirit search it twice to destroy evidence and (b) wouldn't have the means to do without sketchily destroying their public starting items so according to the accounting in the spreadsheet.

Also, while I agree that lily wasn't framed because I believe dgrazian's psych read of her, I don't think saying "Sir Nicoeus and dgrazian are good at being mafia, and therefore probably one of them is mafia" is any logic? I'm certain I'm missing something in your argument.

I think chiller is actually acting pretty in character in terms of posts he's making and alibis he's not making. He's kinda inactive by personality. I don't read too much into "vikt is the only death before today that we haven't solved and chiller broke his pattern of not posting only on that death"

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:10 am 
Those are very good points. Yeah the chiller thing is probably wrong. I just noticed I had nothing for that and noticed a single thing i could report on so i went with it.

When it comes to Sir Nico its hard to explain. There is nothing to say he is mafia or even sk. But in the short time I've been with him there has been something off about it. You are right there isn't any logic behind it at surface level, and I am doing a terrible job of conveying my thoughts. I'll try to rethink it through tomorrow after getting some sleep to see if I can get my thoughts into a more concrete theme.

But chiller might be wrong idk anything about past games him

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:20 am 
I mean psychological reads in the sense that "that person feels sketch" are valid and even useful. Others may tell you otherwise (cough brunnerj cough), but like, a sense against Sir Nico is worth investigating. However, concrete leads for others to follow, particularly people who aren't interacting with Sir Nico, would be great if you actually wanted to convince anyone that your read is right.

idk, I also get vibes off players, but this game I've been less invested so I don't feel anyone being super sketchy. with the low density of mechanical investigations, I should go hang out at Next or Floorpi to get reads but augh that's time I should be spending doing homework.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:31 am 
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Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:39 pm
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Was radio silent but I decided to check in before bed and see this big post. :O

No hate here at all, farel. :D Actually, I was smiling as I read your assessment because you give me so credit. :D I still think I've got a ways to grow before I'm a "perfect embodiment of scheming and manipulation", but I hope to be able to be able to reach that skill level in the future when I need to :D, for some distant games ;) As for my defending myself, honestly, I don't really know what to say. I don't have good alibis because I just don't. I spend a decent proportion of time alone - not really much else I can say about that. My patterns of behaviour are also pretty much the same regardless of what side I'm on in games like this (which is why friends back home never trusted me in party mafia, god damn it).

To respond specifically to your queries as best as I can: the reason I've been quick to respond about swapnil is because it's one of a very few things that I'm certain about in this game. Whilst I hadn't considered your point about purposefully causing this confusion, it would take quick thinking as well as good communication (and I was in a different timezone where contact was tough to have). Furthermore, if I was personally in that situation, I would've taken neither route. Instead asking swapnil to trade the counter but keep the coin so that it just seemed that he was killed with his starting item and could be assumed to be innocent. Causing chaos so early in the game would benefit no-one, and practically, you'd be more likely to achieve the effect of convincing the town that there were more mafia than they thought by painting one of the deaths as that of an innocent. I need some roots to base my logic off and so much of this is uncertain, especially since I missed many early game player meetups and then had no internet for 24 hours, that's why I've clung to the idea of swapnil being a SK to build my narrative around. I would also like to point out that if my plan was to lie about swapnil's affiliation as a fellow mafia, then the mafia counter would be the biggest threat to me. I've known that you held it and had multiple opportunities to kill you whilst you held it, if I were able and wanted to. I was also one of the earliest to sign it if you recall.

Regarding dgrazian. Yes, I do think of him as a threat. But not because he is an enemy to me currently but rather because he's an uncertainty. We do seem to be quite similar in games like these and that's why (ironically), I'm scared of trusting him. I've listed all the little things to you that have stood out to me about him, but the reason that I haven't shared them publicly is because I'm not 100% sure. My mind was even creating stories where the lack of a mafia kill on day 1 could mean that they defined him as a primary target and then tried to kill him only to discover he was an SK and recruit him instead - a concept I have absolutely zero evidence for, and am aware is born from paranoia, hence why I hadn't shared. I'm aware that I psychologically have a negative cognitive bias towards him and will therefore notice more potential mafia signs than proofs of him being town. If I were mafia, I would probably have tried to turn the public tide and lynch him sooner, or simply targeted him for a kill to remove the uncertainty entirely. Furthermore, I would likely raise more flags in general (good and bad) for you than dgrazian, simply because (I assume) that we've spent more time together discussing the game than you have with him.

As for your comments on other people, I've honestly got no clue. I would encourage more investigation on m2w and chiller but we seem to be pretty screwed in that regard.

I acknowledge that this isn't really a solid defence but its the best explanation I've got. If you wanna encourage the town to lynch me, I won't hold it personally. I trust that you guys can still win the game. :D

"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 12:41 am 
I’m glad you managed to see it before you hit the hay. Yeah all your points make sense, and I definitely don’t want to lynch you yet. There isn’t really any reason for me to think of you as mafia that are concrete enough yet. And your suspicions are very valid. I think for now we should focus on mollie and Pravi.

PostPosted: Mon Oct 29, 2018 8:43 am 
in my defense:

there are multiple times this game where I could have lied to make myself look better, but didn't. for example, I wouldn't look suspicious for jason's death if I hadn't admitted to being with him right before he died (which no one would have said if I hadn't brought it up myself). also, josh died significantly before I came back to ET. I didn't know he was dead before going back, but once I learned I immediately found and told pravi. note that pravi didn't see me at ET before that at all, because I wasn't there, and agreed that I wasn't around during dinner (though that's not a full alibi).

I recognize that "disappearing" to the DMSE lounge sounds suspicious, but it's something I do every week during BGOC... you didn't ask me, but I'm also *incredibly* hosed, I claim much moreso than pravi. I spent almost all of saturday cooking for ET (both lunch and dinner), and if you add up the hours for the four classes I listed on my schedule using firehose, you'll realize that I'm taking 63 hours a week's worth of them right now. this is going to require time spent tooling, and no one else in the mafia game is a course 3 sophomore... but if you want to ask one about where I was this afternoon, you could ask spencer toll or danielle herman (they're both NPs, so it might not mean much to you, but it is what it is). but like I said in the first thread of the game, I'm too hosed to be mafia :P I mostly just talk about game through in person conversations that happen around me... which will probably happen a lot less often now that pravi and I are the only living players at ET, rip

I agree that pravi and I should be pair investigated though. you should be able to find that I come up innocent for that kill pretty quickly...

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