Live Action Mafia

A game of sneakiness and paranoia
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 Post subject: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:28 pm 
If you were Care Bear on Day 2 and protected someone for day 3, please proxy out this fact immediately.

If you had any totem on day 2, please post here saying "I had a totem on day 2." If you didn't, please post here saying you did not have any totem. Please do not add more right now about what the totem was or how you got it.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:28 pm 
I had a totem on day 2.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:31 pm 
I had a totem day 2


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:31 pm 
I had a totem on day 2


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:34 pm 

Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 4:38 pm
Posts: 0
had a totem


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:35 pm 
No totem yesterday


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:38 pm 
I did not have a totem for day 2


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:38 pm 
no totem yesterday


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 10:40 pm 

Joined: Tue Feb 19, 2019 5:06 pm
Posts: 0
I didn't have a totem on day 2.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:11 pm 

Joined: Sun Jul 28, 2019 12:40 am
Posts: 0
No totem yesterday or today (day 2 or 3)


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:19 pm 
No idea about day 2 because google bullshit.
I have one day 3.

Is this information we want to make public? It make traps a little easier but not by much I think.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:20 pm 
I don't think we need to share day 3 right now.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Tue Jul 30, 2019 11:22 pm 
Er to clarify, please don't actually post totem info about day 3 right now. aok, ksedlar, and I can explain the reasoning behind claiming day 2 status later.

Pravi, if you can't figure out your day 2 status, can you ask mods to PM you your day 2 status? (mods, can you just PM Pravi their day 2 status?) It's important to get the info from everyone


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:26 am 
Mods pm'ed me. I had a totem.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 3:27 am 
User avatar

Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:39 pm
Posts: 0
I had a totem day 2

_________________
"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 5:09 am 

Joined: Tue Jul 23, 2019 6:07 am
Posts: 0
I had a totem


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:36 am 
I had a totem on day 2


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:49 am 
Had a Day 2 totem


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 7:53 am 
I had a day 2 totem, but was basically inactive yesterday oops.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 8:23 am 
Nico: You have a shovel. Can you please shovel gurev?


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:12 am 
Nico has shovelled and gurev had a totem when he died.


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:16 am 
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Joined: Tue Sep 25, 2018 6:39 pm
Posts: 0
I can confirm this.

_________________
"I intend to live forever or die trying" - Groucho Marx


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 11:18 am 
We know (based on 8 totems in the cornucopia) that 5 people didn't have totems yesterday, plus 1 person for each successful trap the mafia set on day 1.

ALSO, the mafia can guarantee getting a totem when they vie or go to the cornucopia. GMs have verified that if the mafia didn't specify, they would clarify by asking the mafia whether they wanted to guarantee a totem.

Unless the mafia were thinking really well about blocking information, I think it's very likely they all tried to guarantee getting a totem. That meant they were 75% to get one if they vied for someone else's, and 100% if they cornucopiaed. I suspect they all (or almost all) cornucopiaed, as that is the most effective way to deny totems to town, too.

This implies that the 5 people who didn't have totems day 2 we can strongly update to be NOT MAFIA.

Much less likely to be mafia than average:
Daniel Grazian
intermezzio (andrew)
jakob
span
yyao

Probably contains all 4 mafia:
aok
Aileen
jasonye
karengao (dead)
ksedlar
lilychen
m2w
pravinas
QuantumCode
sammyluo
sir Nicoeus


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 12:16 pm 
Note that this entire conclusion depends on aok (the first person to propose this idea, in private to me and ksedlar on day 2) being town, as otherwise he could have easily prepared the mafia not to get totems on day 1 to look innocent


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:12 pm 
Another point of weakness is potential shovel manipulation on gurev, which would probably be me or ksedlar (or just nico lying). Is it worth checking which bear Jack was to fish for beefs this way? I'm thinking most likely not but unclear


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 Post subject: Re: Day 3 Town Plotting
PostPosted: Wed Jul 31, 2019 2:29 pm 
Nico could just claim whatever totem he had was the one gurev had. Can't catch a lie that way.

Also, I don't think there's a way to manipulate shovel results.


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