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CJ froze josh eom
https://mafia.mit.edu/viewtopic.php?f=469&t=35761
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Author:  jamb [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:05 pm ]
Post subject:  CJ froze josh eom

hi CJ

Author:  ksedlar [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:11 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

What was the context? Did he go kill Josh after that?

Author:  pravinas [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

So CJ is mafia or vig? And either josh will show up dead soon or had a taser he used or pled guilty? or jamb is lying for some reason?

did I miss any cases?

Possibility tree:
Code:
jamb good:
  cj good:
    josh lives:
      cj was a vig and making a weird play, and josh had a taser
    josh dies:
      cj was a vig and killed josh, who either pled guilty or didn't
  cj bad:
    josh lives:
      josh had a taser or josh pled guilty
    josh dies:
      josh was killed by mafia cj

jamb bad:
  cj good:
    josh lives, corroborates:
      josh is bad and cj didn't necessarily do this, puts suspicion on cj
    josh lives, doesn't corroborate:
      why? why would jamb make this play?
    josh dies:
      jamb could have killed josh and put the blame on cj, inviting this pair investigation for some reason
  cj bad:
    josh lives, corroborates:
      again, jamb shouldn't make this play, but this time because it outs cj as bad, unless josh knew jamb was watching
    josh lives, doesn't corroborate:
      beef between all of jamb, josh, and cj? idk how this'd even work
    josh dies:
      uhh, still beefs jamb and cj, which is bad for mafia


I think my only conclusion is jamb and cj are not both mafia, and probably also not both town, but I'm less sure. cj please claim vig or not vig?

Author:  Sir Nicoeus [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 1:42 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

So CJ is looking very guilty right now.

Author:  Sir Nicoeus [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:05 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

As Ksedlar touched upon in the second death thread, there aren't many possibilities here.

Possibility 1): CJ had a mafia buddy with him and scheme was used.

Possibility 2): CJ is a mafia vig and just did both kills because he was exposed anyway

Possibility 3): CJ is a town vig, witnessed Jamb kill brunnerj and then got instant revenege.

I think possibility 3 is quite unlikely cause if it was true, CJ has no reason not to claim this immediately. In fact, its probably more likely that he didn't realise that jamb managed a paranoia post in time.

Hence, since 1 & 2 are more likely anyway. I think CJ is a safe vote for tonight.

Author:  megaol [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:08 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

possibility 3 is also made less likely by the fact that cj randomly being in 34-3 seems way less likely than jackie randomly being in 34-3. I agree that there's no reason to overthonk this and just vote cj.

Author:  megaol [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:10 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

lol rules update:

Possibility 4) CJ made the kill and used scheme to make the second kill too.

Sounds correct.

Get thonkd

Author:  aok [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

There is only one possibility, which is that CJ is mafia and made both kills.

Author:  iamm2w [ Wed Feb 26, 2020 2:25 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: CJ froze josh eom

megaol wrote:
possibility 3 is also made less likely by the fact that cj randomly being in 34-3 seems way less likely than jackie randomly being in 34-3. I agree that there's no reason to overthonk this and just vote cj.

Jackie and Josh were in fact randomly sitting together in 34-3 when I went to ESG via 34-3 around 12:30.

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